Home Bancshares (HOMB) Risk Analysis

When we acquire a business, a portion of the purchase price of the acquisition is generally allocated to goodwill and other identifiable intangible assets. The amount of the purchase price that is allocated to goodwill and other intangible assets is determined by the excess of the purchase price over the net identifiable assets acquired. At December 31, 2024, our goodwill and other identifiable intangible assets were $1.44 billion. Under current accounting standards, if we determine goodwill or intangible assets are impaired because, for example, the acquired business does not meet projected revenue targets or certain key employees leave, we are required to write down the carrying value of these assets. We conduct a review at least annually to determine whether goodwill is impaired. Our annual goodwill impairment evaluation performed during the fourth quarter of 2024 indicated no impairment of goodwill for our reporting segments. We cannot provide assurance, however, that we will not be required to take an impairment charge in the future. Any impairment charge would have an adverse effect on our shareholders' equity and financial results and could cause a decline in our stock price.

Financial institutions are inherently exposed to fraud risk. A fraud can be perpetrated by a customer of our bank subsidiary, an employee, a vendor, or members of the general public. We are most subject to fraud and compliance risk in connection with the origination of loans, ACH transactions, wire transactions, ATM transactions, and checking transactions. Our largest fraud risk, associated with the origination of loans, includes the intentional misstatement of information in property appraisals or other underwriting documentation provided to us by third parties. Compliance risk is the risk that loans are not originated in compliance with applicable laws and regulations and our standards. There can be no assurance that we can prevent or detect acts of fraud or violation of law or our compliance standards by the third parties that we deal with. Repeated incidences of fraud or compliance failures would adversely impact the performance of our loan portfolio.

Management makes various assumptions and judgments about the collectability of our loan portfolio, including the creditworthiness of our borrowers and the value of the real estate and other assets serving as collateral for the repayment of our secured loans. We endeavor to maintain an allowance for credit losses that we consider adequate to absorb future losses that may occur in our loan portfolio. As of December 31, 2024, our allowance for credit losses was approximately $275.9 million, or 1.87% of our total loans. In determining the size of the allowance, we analyze our loan portfolio based on our historical loss experience, volume and classification of loans, volume and trends in delinquencies and non-accruals, national and local economic conditions, and other pertinent information. During the fourth quarter of 2024, we completed a company-wide asset quality cleanup project, which resulted in net charge-offs for the quarter of $53.4 million and a reduction in our allowance for credit losses of $36.7 million from $312.6 million, or 2.11% of total loans, at September 30, 2024. The reduction resulting from charge-offs was partially offset by a $16.7 million provision for credit losses during the fourth quarter related to Hurricanes Helene and Milton. However, no additional provision for credit losses on loans was recorded for the quarter ended December 31, 2024, as the current level of reserves was considered adequate for the loan portfolio. If our assumptions are incorrect, our current allowance may be insufficient to absorb future loan losses, and we may determine that increased loan loss reserves may be needed to respond to different economic conditions or adverse developments in our loan portfolio. When there is an economic downturn, it is more difficult for us to estimate the losses that we will experience in our loan portfolio. In addition, federal and state regulators periodically review our allowance for credit losses and may require us to increase our allowance for credit losses or recognize further loan charge-offs based on judgments different than those of our management. Any increase in our allowance for credit losses or loan charge-offs could have a negative effect on our operating results.

As of December 31, 2024, approximately 74.2% of our total loan portfolio was comprised of loans with real estate as a primary or secondary component of collateral. This includes commercial real estate loans (excluding construction/land development) of $5.76 billion, or 39.1% of total loans, construction/land development loans of $2.74 billion, or 18.5% of total loans, and residential real estate loans of $2.45 billion, or 16.6% of total loans. This high concentration of real estate loans could subject us to increased credit risk in the event of a decrease in real estate values in our markets, a real estate recession or a natural disaster. Also, in any such event, our ability to recover on defaulted loans by foreclosing and selling real estate collateral would be diminished, and we would be more likely to suffer losses on defaulted loans. In addition to the risks associated with the high concentration of real estate-secured loans, the commercial real estate and construction/land development loans, which comprised 57.6% of our total loan portfolio as of December 31, 2024, expose us to a greater risk of loss than our residential real estate loans, which comprised 16.6% of our total loan portfolio as of December 31, 2024. Commercial real estate and land development loans typically involve larger loan balances to single borrowers or groups of related borrowers compared to residential loans. Consequently, an adverse development with respect to one commercial loan or one credit relationship exposes us to a significantly greater risk of loss compared to an adverse development with respect to one residential mortgage loan. The repayment of loans secured by commercial real estate is typically dependent upon the successful operation of the related real estate or commercial project. If the cash flows from the project are reduced, a borrower's ability to repay the loan may be impaired. This cash flow shortage may result in the failure to make loan payments. In such cases, we may be compelled to modify the terms of the loan, or in the most extreme cases, we may have to foreclose. If a decline in economic conditions or other issues cause difficulties for our borrowers of these types of loans, if we fail to evaluate the credit of these loans accurately when we underwrite them or if we do not continue to adequately monitor the performance of these loans, our lending portfolio could experience delinquencies, defaults and credit losses that could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations.

As of December 31, 2024, we owned $3.07 billion of available-for-sale investment securities. The fair value of our available-for-sale investment securities may be adversely affected by market conditions, including changes in interest rates, and the occurrence of any events adversely affecting the issuer of particular securities in our investments portfolio. We evaluate all securities quarterly to determine if any securities in a loss position requires a provision for credit losses in accordance with ASC 326, Measurement of Credit Losses on Financial Instruments. The Company first assesses whether it intends to sell or is more likely than not that the Company will be required to sell the security before recovery of its amortized cost basis. If either of the criteria regarding intent or requirement to sell is met, the security's amortized cost basis is written down to fair value through income. For securities that do not meet these criteria, the Company evaluates whether the decline in fair value has resulted from credit losses or other factors. In making this assessment, the Company considers the extent to which fair value is less than amortized cost, and changes to the rating of the security by a rating agency, and adverse conditions specifically related to the security, among other factors. If this assessment indicates that a credit loss exists, the present value of cash flows expected to be collected from the security are compared to the amortized cost basis of the security. If the present value of cash flows expected to be collected is less than the amortized cost basis, a credit loss exists and an allowance for credit losses is recorded for the credit loss, limited by the amount that the fair value is less than the amortized cost basis. Any impairment that has not been recorded through an allowance for credit losses is recognized in other comprehensive income. Changes in the allowance for credit losses are recorded as provision for (or reversal of) credit loss expense. Losses are charged against the allowance when management believes the uncollectability of a security is confirmed or when either of the criteria regarding intent or requirement to sell is met. Because of changing economic and market conditions affecting issuers, we may be required to record provisions for credit losses in future periods, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations. As of December 31, 2024, we owned $1.28 billion of held-to-maturity investment securities. Securities held-to-maturity ("HTM"), which include any security for which we have the positive intent and ability to hold until maturity, are reported at historical cost adjusted for amortization of premiums and accretion of discounts. Premiums and discounts are amortized/accreted to the call date to interest income using the constant effective yield method over the estimated life of the security. The Company evaluates all securities quarterly to determine if any securities in a loss position require a provision for credit losses in accordance with ASC 326. The Company measures expected credit losses on HTM securities on a collective basis by major security type, with each type sharing similar risk characteristics. The estimate of expected credit losses considers historical credit loss information that is adjusted for current conditions and reasonable and supportable forecasts. The Company has made the election to exclude accrued interest receivable on HTM securities from the estimate of credit losses and report accrued interest separately on the consolidated balance sheets. Changes in the allowance for credit losses are recorded as provision for (or reversal of) credit loss expense. Losses are charged against the allowance when management believes the uncollectability of a security is confirmed. Because of changing economic and market conditions affecting issuers, we may be required to record provisions for credit losses in future periods, which could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations.

Our results of operations are affected by the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve Board. Most of our assets and liabilities are monetary in nature, and thus subject us to significant risks from changes in interest rates. Consequently, our results of operations can be significantly affected by changes in interest rates and our ability to manage interest rate risk. Changes in market interest rates, changes in the relationships between short-term and long-term market interest rates, or changes in the relationship between different interest rate indices can affect the interest rates charged on interest-earning assets differently than the interest paid on interest-bearing liabilities. This difference could result in an increase in interest expense relative to interest income or a decrease in interest rate spread. In addition to affecting our profitability, changes in interest rates can impact the valuation of our assets and liabilities. Changes in interest rates can also affect our business and profitability in numerous other ways. For example, increases in interest rates can have a negative impact on our results of operations by reducing loan demand and the ability of borrowers to repay their current obligations, while decreases in interest rates may affect loan prepayments. In response to inflation and its affects on U.S. business and consumers, the Federal Reserve Board implemented a series of eleven interest rate increases beginning in March 2022. However, in response to recent slowing inflation, the Federal Reserve Board reduced interest rates three times in 2024. Future economic developments and the Federal Reserve Board's policies in response, however, cannot be predicted with certainty. At this time, it is unknown how future action by the Federal Reserve Board involving monetary policies will affect our business and the banking industry. There can be no assurance that any future actions by the Federal Reserve Board involving monetary policies will not cause any of the adverse effects described above on our deposit levels, loan demand or business and earnings.

The financial system is highly interrelated, including as a result of lending, trading, clearing, counterparty, and other relationships. We have exposure to and routinely execute transactions with a wide variety of financial institutions, including brokers, dealers, commercial banks, investment banks and other substantial participants. In addition, we currently hold and may in the future acquire additional investments in the debt or equity securities of other financial institutions. Some of the institutions or other participants with whom we transact business or in which we hold investments may experience instability due to financial challenges in the banking industry or may be perceived to be unstable. If any of these institutions or participants were to fail in meeting its obligations in full and on time, or were to enter bankruptcy, conservatorship, or receivership, the consequences could ripple throughout the financial system and may adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition, or prospects. Our investments in any such institutions could decline in value or become valueless, which could result in us incurring losses in our investment portfolio that may have a materially adverse effect our operating results. Further, our stock price may be negatively impacted by failures of other financial institutions and their effects on consumer and investor confidence, and we may experience increased deposit insurance premiums, increased regulatory scrutiny and other adverse effects on our business, profitability or financial condition as a result of these failures.

As of December 31, 2024, approximately 74.2% of our total loans were secured by real estate. In prior years, difficult local economic conditions have adversely affected the values of our real estate collateral, and they could do so again if the economic conditions markets were to deteriorate in the future. The real estate collateral in each case provides an alternate source of repayment on our loans in the event of default by the borrower but may deteriorate in value during the time credit is extended. If we are required to liquidate the collateral securing a loan to satisfy the debt during a period of reduced real estate values, our earnings and capital could be adversely affected.

We have a concentration of exposure to a number of individual borrowers. Under applicable law, our bank subsidiary is generally permitted to make loans to one borrowing relationship up to 20% of its Tier 1 capital plus the allowance for credit losses. As of December 31, 2024, the legal lending limit of our bank subsidiary for secured loans was approximately $576.1 million. Our board of directors has established an in-house lending limit of $40.0 million to any one borrowing relationship without obtaining the approval of the Chairman, John W. Allison, and our Vice Chairman, Jack E. Engelkes. As of December 31, 2024, we had a total of $7.54 billion, or 51.1% of our total loans, committed to the aggregate group of borrowers whose total debt exceeds the established in-house lending limit of $40.0 million.