Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. (1638) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$797.73M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.58M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 3.83
• Revenue Growth: -45.46%
• EPS Growth: -33.35%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 15,225
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Development
• EPS (TTM): -1.54
• Shares Outstanding: 9,611,258,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,397,251
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,583,704
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.11
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 39 Underperform
• Price Target: HK$0.08 ▼(-23.00% Downside)

The score is driven primarily by severe financial distress across profitability, balance sheet solvency (negative equity), and weak/absent cash generation. Technicals also remain bearish with the stock trading below major moving averages and a negative MACD, despite oversold readings. Valuation signals are limited due to a negative P/E and no dividend yield data.

Positive Factors

Diversified property portfolio

Kaisa's mix of residential, commercial and integrated community projects spreads operational risk across segments and buyer types. Over a 2–6 month horizon this diversification supports project reallocation, cross-selling and phased revenue recognition, reducing reliance on any single market niche.

Recurring leasing and management income

Leasing revenue and property management fees supply recurring cash inflows that are structurally steadier than one-time property sales. Sustained rental and service income can smooth operating volatility and support liquidity planning over months, improving predictability of near-term cash generation if assets remain occupied.

Established government and finance partnerships

Longstanding ties with local governments and banks help secure land parcels, approvals and access to credit facilities. Structurally, these relationships can preserve project pipelines and provide preferential access to financing or land resources, supporting project execution over the medium term versus peers without such links.

Negative Factors

Negative shareholders' equity

Negative equity indicates the firm is balance-sheet insolvent on accounting measures, limiting capacity to absorb shocks or raise equity. This structural weakness elevates refinancing and covenant risks, constraining strategic options and increasing default probability over the coming months without recapitalization.

Zero operating and free cash flow

Absent operating and free cash flow means the company cannot internally fund working capital, capex or debt servicing. Reliance on external financing or asset sales is required for survival; such dependence creates sustained liquidity risk and undermines ability to execute projects over 2–6 months.

Declining revenue and negative gross profit

Selling below cost and falling top-line demonstrate core profitability failure. Negative gross margins erode any operating leverage and make project economics unviable without restructuring or pricing recovery. Persisting losses threaten margins and the firm's capacity to sustain operations long term.

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., an investment holding company, engages in the property investment, development, and management businesses in the People's Republic of China. It develops villas, townhouses, residential and commercial buildings, and office buildings. The company is also involved in the hotel and catering, cinema, and department stores and cultural center operations, as well as waterway passenger and cargo transportation, healthcare business, property leasing, and manufacturing and trading of pharmaceutical products. In addition, it offers commerce management and construction engineering services. Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

How the Company Makes Money

Kaisa Group Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of real estate properties, which forms the bulk of its income. The company develops residential and commercial properties, selling them to end-users and investors at a profit. In addition to property sales, Kaisa also earns revenue from leasing its commercial properties, contributing to a steady income stream. The firm has established key partnerships with local governments and financial institutions, which facilitate land acquisitions and financing, thereby enhancing its operational capabilities. Furthermore, Kaisa offers property management services, generating additional revenue through service fees. Overall, the company's business model is centered around capitalizing on the growing demand for real estate in urban areas of China, leveraging its experience and established network in the industry.

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. is experiencing severe financial distress. The income statement shows declining revenues and deep losses, the balance sheet reflects negative equity and high leverage, and the cash flow statement indicates severe liquidity issues. These factors collectively suggest a company under substantial financial distress, with potential risks to its ongoing operations.

Income Statement

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. has displayed significant financial distress in its income statement, with steep declines in revenue and profitability over recent years. The most recent annual report shows a negative gross profit margin, indicating the company is selling goods below cost. Additionally, the net profit margin is deeply negative, driven by substantial net losses. The revenue growth rate is negative, reflecting a decline in revenue year-over-year. These factors indicate severe profitability issues and a challenging operating environment.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. reveals a precarious financial position, with liabilities significantly exceeding assets, resulting in negative stockholders' equity. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, highlighting high leverage and potential insolvency risks. The equity ratio is also negative, indicating a lack of financial stability. These metrics suggest a high-risk balance sheet with significant financial challenges.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement is concerning, with zero operating cash flow in the latest period, indicating potential liquidity issues. Free cash flow is also zero, which poses challenges for reinvestment and debt servicing. Past periods show negative free cash flow and operating cash flow, reflecting ongoing struggles to generate cash from operations. These factors suggest severe cash flow difficulties, raising sustainability concerns.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.83B	11.56B	26.16B	25.39B	35.54B	55.77B
Gross Profit	-15.96B	-11.06B	1.70B	1.70B	-1.65B	13.33B
EBITDA	-21.63B	-18.76B	-16.52B	-10.70B	-11.19B	6.83B
Net Income	-29.45B	-28.53B	-19.93B	-13.06B	-12.73B	5.45B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	202.64B	210.68B	232.82B	264.34B	290.13B	309.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.73B	1.61B	1.96B	2.97B	7.69B	44.81B
Total Debt	134.27B	135.64B	134.20B	134.76B	132.33B	122.03B
Total Liabilities	244.45B	242.42B	225.10B	229.10B	231.05B	231.18B
Stockholders Equity	-50.57B	-40.58B	-12.05B	7.86B	21.03B	32.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	360.53M	-315.23M	-435.72M	-6.33B	-22.49B	3.32B
Operating Cash Flow	523.89M	-124.81M	-359.18M	-6.26B	-21.85B	4.53B
Investing Cash Flow	1.24B	982.51M	-604.37M	2.02B	-13.19B	-25.89B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.49B	-1.13B	-199.14M	3.17B	2.05B	30.42B

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.10
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1638, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.10, below the 50-day MA of 0.11, and below the 200-day MA of 0.15, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.78 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1638.

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
0131	58 Neutral	HK$815.85M	-0.82	-16.32%	3.70%	-11.00%	-676.27%
0563	52 Neutral	HK$1.51B	-2.54	-4.51%	―	23.54%	-204.92%
0230	46 Neutral	HK$3.25B	-1.06	-114.48%	―	-26.58%	-40.96%
1638	39 Underperform	HK$797.73M	-0.02	―	―	-45.46%	-33.35%
1238	38 Underperform	HK$1.08B	-0.17	-17.55%	―	-11.33%	-7.70%
1813	37 Underperform	HK$550.05M	-0.27	-55.49%	―	-29.26%	88.87%

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events

Kaisa Group Executive Director Li Haiming Resigns for Health Reasons

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. has announced the resignation of executive director Li Haiming, effective 5 January 2026, citing health reasons. The company emphasized that Li has no disagreements with the board and that there are no issues requiring shareholder attention, while the board expressed gratitude for his contributions, signaling an orderly leadership transition with the remaining executive and independent non-executive directors continuing to oversee corporate governance.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1638) stock is a Sell with a HK$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1638 Stock Forecast page.

Kaisa Group Details Board and Committee Composition in Governance Update

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. has announced the current composition of its board of directors, listing five executive directors, including Chairman Kwok Ying Shing and Vice Chairman Mai Fan, alongside four independent non-executive directors. The company also detailed the membership and chairmanship of its three key board committees—audit, nomination, and remuneration—clarifying which directors serve on each committee. This disclosure reinforces the firm’s corporate governance framework and provides transparency to shareholders and the market regarding oversight responsibilities and leadership structure at a time when governance standards remain under close scrutiny in the Chinese property sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1638) stock is a Sell with a HK$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1638 Stock Forecast page.

Kaisa Further Extends Consent Solicitation Deadline for Outstanding Notes

Kaisa Group Holdings has further extended the expiration deadline for its ongoing consent solicitation relating to certain outstanding notes, moving the cut-off from 4:00 p.m. London time on December 28, 2025 to 4:00 p.m. London time on January 16, 2026. The company said the move is intended to give noteholders more time to submit consents, with eligible investors who validly deliver consents by the new deadline remaining entitled to a consent fee, while instructions already submitted remain valid and irrevocable; aside from the deadline extension, all other terms of the solicitation remain unchanged, underscoring the company’s efforts to secure sufficient creditor support for its liability management initiatives and signalling ongoing focus on stabilising its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1638) stock is a Sell with a HK$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1638 Stock Forecast page.

Kaisa Group Announces Extension of Consent Solicitation Deadline for Notes

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. has announced an extension of the expiration deadline for its consent solicitation relating to company-issued notes. The new deadline, moved from December 17, 2025, to December 28, 2025, aims to provide eligible holders additional time to deliver their consents, which may entitle them to a consent fee. This adjustment reflects the company’s effort to streamline its financial operations, which may have implications for its debt structure and investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1638) stock is a Sell with a HK$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1638 Stock Forecast page.

Kaisa Group Announces Consent Solicitation and Potential Share Issuance

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. has announced a consent solicitation related to its outstanding variable rate senior notes due between 2027 and 2032. The company is also considering the possible issuance of new shares under general and specific mandates. This move is aimed at managing its financial obligations and potentially strengthening its capital structure, which could have implications for its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

The most recent analyst rating on (HK:1638) stock is a Sell with a HK$0.11 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. stock, see the HK:1638 Stock Forecast page.