Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. (1638) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: HK$993.59M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 6.58M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 3.71
• Revenue Growth: -45.46%
• EPS Growth: -33.35%
• Country: HK
• Employees: 15,225
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: Real Estate - Development
• EPS (TTM): -1.54
• Shares Outstanding: 9,115,469,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 4,397,251
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 6,583,704
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): -0.03
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.11
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.14
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 39 Underperform
• Price Target: HK$0.11 ▲(1.82% Upside)

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. is facing significant financial challenges, which is the most critical factor affecting its stock score. The technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, and the valuation metrics are poor, with a negative P/E ratio and no dividend yield. These factors collectively result in a low overall stock score, reflecting substantial risks and financial instability.

Positive Factors

Diverse Revenue Streams

Kaisa's diverse revenue streams from property sales, leasing, and management services provide a buffer against market volatility, enhancing long-term stability.

Strategic Partnerships

Strategic partnerships with governments and financial institutions facilitate land acquisition and financing, supporting long-term growth and operational efficiency.

Urban Real Estate Demand

Focusing on urban real estate demand in China positions Kaisa to capitalize on ongoing urbanization trends, supporting sustainable growth.

Negative Factors

Negative Equity

Negative equity indicates financial instability, limiting Kaisa's ability to secure financing and invest in growth, posing long-term risks.

Severe Cash Flow Issues

Severe cash flow issues hinder Kaisa's ability to reinvest and service debt, threatening its operational sustainability and financial health.

Declining Revenue

Declining revenue growth undermines Kaisa's market position and profitability, challenging its ability to maintain competitive advantage.

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. (1638) is a leading property developer based in Hong Kong, primarily engaged in the development, investment, and management of residential, commercial, and mixed-use properties in China. The company operates through various segments, including property development, property investment, and property management services. Kaisa is known for its diverse portfolio of real estate projects, which include high-rise apartments, shopping malls, and integrated community developments, aimed at catering to different market segments.

How the Company Makes Money

Kaisa Group Holdings generates revenue primarily through the sale of real estate properties, which forms the bulk of its income. The company develops residential and commercial properties, selling them to end-users and investors at a profit. In addition to property sales, Kaisa also earns revenue from leasing its commercial properties, contributing to a steady income stream. The firm has established key partnerships with local governments and financial institutions, which facilitate land acquisitions and financing, thereby enhancing its operational capabilities. Furthermore, Kaisa offers property management services, generating additional revenue through service fees. Overall, the company's business model is centered around capitalizing on the growing demand for real estate in urban areas of China, leveraging its experience and established network in the industry.

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. is experiencing severe financial distress. The income statement shows declining revenues and deep losses, the balance sheet reflects negative equity and high leverage, and the cash flow statement indicates severe liquidity issues. These factors collectively suggest a company under substantial financial distress, with potential risks to its ongoing operations.

Income Statement

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. has displayed significant financial distress in its income statement, with steep declines in revenue and profitability over recent years. The most recent annual report shows a negative gross profit margin, indicating the company is selling goods below cost. Additionally, the net profit margin is deeply negative, driven by substantial net losses. The revenue growth rate is negative, reflecting a decline in revenue year-over-year. These factors indicate severe profitability issues and a challenging operating environment.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. reveals a precarious financial position, with liabilities significantly exceeding assets, resulting in negative stockholders' equity. The debt-to-equity ratio is not calculable due to negative equity, highlighting high leverage and potential insolvency risks. The equity ratio is also negative, indicating a lack of financial stability. These metrics suggest a high-risk balance sheet with significant financial challenges.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement is concerning, with zero operating cash flow in the latest period, indicating potential liquidity issues. Free cash flow is also zero, which poses challenges for reinvestment and debt servicing. Past periods show negative free cash flow and operating cash flow, reflecting ongoing struggles to generate cash from operations. These factors suggest severe cash flow difficulties, raising sustainability concerns.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.83B	11.56B	26.16B	25.39B	35.54B	55.77B
Gross Profit	-15.96B	-11.06B	1.70B	1.70B	-1.65B	13.33B
EBITDA	-21.63B	-18.76B	-16.52B	-10.70B	-11.19B	6.83B
Net Income	-29.45B	-28.53B	-19.93B	-13.06B	-12.73B	5.45B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	202.64B	210.68B	232.82B	264.34B	290.13B	309.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.73B	1.61B	1.96B	2.97B	7.69B	44.81B
Total Debt	134.27B	135.64B	134.20B	134.76B	132.33B	122.03B
Total Liabilities	244.45B	242.42B	225.10B	229.10B	231.05B	231.18B
Stockholders Equity	-50.57B	-40.58B	-12.05B	7.86B	21.03B	32.33B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	360.53M	-315.23M	-435.72M	-6.33B	-22.49B	3.32B
Operating Cash Flow	523.89M	-124.81M	-359.18M	-6.26B	-21.85B	4.53B
Investing Cash Flow	1.24B	982.51M	-604.37M	2.02B	-13.19B	-25.89B
Financing Cash Flow	-1.49B	-1.13B	-199.14M	3.17B	2.05B	30.42B

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.11
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1638, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.11 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.11, below the 50-day MA of 0.12, and below the 200-day MA of 0.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 38.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1638.

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
0131	58 Neutral	HK$757.11M	-0.77	-16.32%	3.66%	-11.00%	-676.27%
0563	52 Neutral	HK$1.58B	-2.67	-4.51%	―	23.54%	-204.92%
0230	46 Neutral	HK$3.25B	-1.06	-114.48%	―	-26.58%	-40.96%
1638	39 Underperform	HK$993.59M	-0.02	―	―	-45.46%	-33.35%
1238	38 Underperform	HK$1.04B	-0.17	-17.55%	―	-11.33%	-7.70%
1813	37 Underperform	HK$532.96M	-0.26	-55.49%	―	-29.26%	88.87%

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events

Kaisa Group Announces Consent Solicitation and Potential Share Issuance

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. has announced a consent solicitation related to its outstanding variable rate senior notes due between 2027 and 2032. The company is also considering the possible issuance of new shares under general and specific mandates. This move is aimed at managing its financial obligations and potentially strengthening its capital structure, which could have implications for its market positioning and stakeholder interests.

Kaisa Group Announces Dismissal of Winding-Up Petition

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. announced the dismissal of a winding-up petition against the company by the High Court on September 22, 2025. This follows significant progress in the company’s offshore debt restructuring, indicating a positive development in its financial stability. Stakeholders and potential investors are advised to exercise caution when dealing with the company’s securities.

Kaisa Group Announces Restructuring and New Debt Issuance

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. has announced the occurrence of the Restructuring Effective Date and the issuance of new debt instruments as part of its restructuring efforts. This move is aimed at facilitating equal dissemination of information to investors in Hong Kong and ensuring compliance with the Stock Exchange’s listing rules, although it does not constitute an offer to sell securities to the public.

Kaisa Group Achieves Milestone in Offshore Debt Restructuring

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. has announced the effective date of its offshore debt restructuring, marking a significant milestone in its financial recovery efforts. The restructuring involves the issuance of new notes and mandatory convertible bonds (MCBs) totaling over $13 billion, which will discharge existing claims and provide a new financial framework for the company’s obligations.

Kaisa Group Announces Anticipated Effective Date for Debt Restructuring

Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. has announced an anticipated effective date for its offshore debt restructuring, expected around September 15, 2025. This restructuring is contingent upon meeting specific conditions, and the company advises caution for investors dealing with its securities during this period.