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Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd.
(1638)
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Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
HK$0.04
▼(-60.00% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/14/26
The score is held down primarily by stressed financial fundamentals (high leverage with prior negative equity, sharply reduced revenue base, and weak cash conversion vs. reported 2025 profit). Technicals also remain bearish with the price below key moving averages and negative MACD. Valuation appears optically cheap due to an extremely low P/E, but that support is limited given the stated earnings-quality and balance-sheet risks.
Positive Factors
Improving cash generation
Operating cash flow and free cash flow turned positive in 2025, improving near-term liquidity. If sustained, this reduces immediate refinancing pressure, enables targeted deleveraging and funds project completions, providing durable optionality for balance-sheet repair over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
High leverage & negative equity history
The company's capital structure has been structurally stressed, with prior negative equity and very high debt-to-equity ratios. Such entrenched leverage raises refinancing and covenant breach risks, constrains strategic options and materially increases default vulnerability absent sustained repair.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improving cash generation
Operating cash flow and free cash flow turned positive in 2025, improving near-term liquidity. If sustained, this reduces immediate refinancing pressure, enables targeted deleveraging and funds project completions, providing durable optionality for balance-sheet repair over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. (1638) vs. iShares MSCI Hong Kong ETF (EWH)
Market Cap
HK$457.08M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)6.58M
Price to Earnings (P/E)<0.1
Beta (1Y)3.73
Revenue Growth-17.69%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryHK
Employees14,286
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryReal Estate - Development
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.49
Shares Outstanding11,427,029,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,397,251
30 Day Avg. Volume6,583,704
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)0.06
Price to Sales (P/S)0.06
P/FCF Ratio0.80
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. functions as an investment holding company primarily dedicated to real estate development, property investment, and asset management throughout the People's Republic of China. The firm constructs a wide variety of propert...
How the Company Makes Money
Kaisa has historically generated revenue primarily through property development: (1) Selling developed properties—recognizing revenue from the pre-sale and sale of residential and commercial units and related parking spaces; this has typically bee...
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
32
Negative
Balance Sheet
18
Very Negative
Cash Flow
28
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 9.50B | 11.56B | 26.16B | 25.39B | 35.54B |
| Gross Profit | 451.84M | -11.06B | 1.70B | 1.70B | -1.65B |
| EBITDA | 55.83B | -18.76B | -16.52B | -10.70B | -11.19B |
| Net Income | 52.55B | -28.53B | -19.93B | -13.06B | -12.73B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 184.15B | 210.68B | 232.82B | 264.34B | 290.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.12B | 1.61B | 1.96B | 2.97B | 7.69B |
| Total Debt | 48.78B | 135.64B | 134.20B | 134.76B | 132.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 164.70B | 242.42B | 225.10B | 229.10B | 231.05B |
| Stockholders Equity | 10.92B | -40.58B | -12.05B | 7.86B | 21.03B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 763.94M | -315.23M | -435.72M | -6.33B | -22.49B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 836.98M | -124.81M | -359.18M | -6.26B | -21.85B |
| Investing Cash Flow | 227.91M | 982.51M | -604.37M | 2.02B | -13.19B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.35B | -1.13B | -199.14M | 3.17B | 2.05B |
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Technical Analysis
Negative
0.10
Price Trends
0.06
Negative
0.07
Negative
0.09
Negative
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Positive
30.39
Neutral
29.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For HK:1638, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.05, above the 50-day MA of 0.06, and above the 200-day MA of 0.09, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for HK:1638.
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
44 Neutral | HK$18.44B | 224.41 | 0.20% | 3.94% | -2.02% | -95.76% | |
43 Neutral | HK$457.08M | <0.01 | ― | ― | -17.69% | ― | |
41 Neutral | HK$746.82M | -0.03 | -158.53% | ― | -35.92% | -31.49% | |
41 Neutral | HK$848.78M | -0.12 | -20.77% | ― | -12.18% | -2.23% | |
39 Underperform | HK$874.30M | -0.05 | -89.23% | ― | -34.82% | 6.82% | |
39 Underperform | HK$348.48M | -0.09 | -55.49% | ― | -38.93% | 59.60% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
HK:1638
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd.
0.04
-0.13
-75.90%
HK:3383
Agile Group Holdings
0.15
-0.32
-68.17%
HK:3900
Greentown China Holdings
7.26
-2.82
-27.98%
HK:2777
Guangzhou R&F Properties Co
0.23
-0.74
-75.98%
HK:1813
KWG Group Holdings
0.10
-0.25
-70.86%
HK:1238
Powerlong Real Estate Holdings Ltd.
0.21
-0.16
-43.06%
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. Corporate Events
Kaisa Shareholders Approve All AGM Resolutions, Renew Capital Mandates
Jun 17, 2026
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. reported that all resolutions put to shareholders at its annual general meeting on 17 June 2026 were approved by poll. Investors endorsed the 2025 audited financial statements, re-elected one executive and two independent...
Kaisa Group Sets 2026 AGM to Renew Mandates on Directors, Auditor and Share Capital
May 22, 2026
Kaisa Group Holdings has called its annual general meeting for 17 June 2026 in Hong Kong, where shareholders will review the 2025 audited financial statements, re-elect directors and confirm their remuneration, and re-appoint ZSZH (HK) Fuson CPA L...
Kaisa Wins U.S. Court Recognition of Hong Kong Restructuring
May 21, 2026
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. said a U.S. bankruptcy court has recognized its Hong Kong restructuring proceedings and those of affiliate Rui Jing as foreign main proceedings under Chapter 15. The court granted a permanent injunction barring actions or...
Kaisa Seeks U.S. Chapter 15 Recognition for Hong Kong Restructuring
Apr 16, 2026
Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. and its subsidiary Rui Jing Investment Company Limited have initiated cross-border insolvency steps in the United States linked to their ongoing Hong Kong restructuring proceedings. Acting through an authorized foreign re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.