Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Risk Analysis

We depend on several major pieces of mining equipment to produce and transport our steelmaking coal, including, but not limited to, longwall mining systems, continuous mining units, our preparation plant and blending facilities, and conveyors. We procure this equipment from a concentrated group of suppliers and obtaining or repairing these major pieces of mining equipment often involves long lead times. If any of these pieces of equipment or facilities suffer major damage or are destroyed by fire, abnormal wear, flooding, incorrect operation or otherwise, we may be unable to replace or repair them in a timely manner or at a reasonable cost, which would impact our ability to produce and transport steelmaking coal and materially and adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows. Moreover, MSHA and other regulatory agencies sometimes make changes with regards to requirements for pieces of equipment. Such changes could cause delays if manufacturers and suppliers are unable to make the required changes in compliance with mandated deadlines. If either our preparation plant or river barge load-out facilities, or those of a third party processing or loading our steelmaking coal, suffer extended downtime, including major damage, or are destroyed, our ability to process and deliver steelmaking coal to prospective customers would be materially impacted, which would materially adversely affect our business, results of operations, financial condition and cash flows.

Our executive officers and other key personnel have significant experience in the steelmaking coal or other commodity businesses and the loss of certain of these individuals could harm our business, absent the completion of an orderly transition. Moreover, there may be a limited number of persons with the requisite experience and skills to serve in our senior management positions. Although we have been successful in attracting qualified individuals for key management and corporate positions in the past, there can be no assurance that we will continue to be successful in attracting and retaining a sufficient number of qualified personnel in the future or that we will be able to do so on acceptable terms. The loss of key management personnel could harm our ability to successfully manage our business functions, prevent us from executing our business strategy and have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and cash flows.

Transportation costs represent a significant portion of the total cost of steelmaking coal to be delivered to our customers and, as a result, the cost of delivery is a factor in a customer's purchasing decision. Overall price increases in our transportation costs could make our steelmaking coal less competitive with the same or alternative products from competitors with lower transportation costs. We typically depend upon overland conveyor, trucks, rail or barges to transport our products. Disruption or delays of any of these transportation services due to weather-related problems, which are variable and unpredictable, strikes or lock-outs, accidents, infrastructure damage, governmental regulation, third-party actions, lack of capacity or other events beyond our control could impair our ability to supply our products to our customers and result in lost sales and reduced profitability. In addition, increases in transportation costs resulting from emission control requirements and fluctuations in the price of gasoline and diesel fuel, could make steelmaking coal produced in one region of the United States less competitive than steelmaking coal produced in other regions of the United States or abroad. All of our steelmaking coal mines are served by only one rail carrier, which increases our vulnerability to these risks, although our access to barge transportation partially mitigates that risk. In addition, the majority of the steelmaking coal produced by our underground mining operations is sold to steelmaking coal customers who typically arrange and pay for transportation from the state-run docks at the Port of Mobile in Alabama to the point of use. As a result, disruption at the docks, port congestion and delayed steelmaking coal shipments may result in demurrage fees to us. If this disruption were to persist over an extended period of time, demurrage costs could significantly impact our profits. In addition, there are limited cost-effective alternatives to the port. The cost of securing additional facilities and services of this nature could significantly increase transportation and other costs. An interruption of rail or port services could significantly limit our ability to operate and, to the extent that alternate sources of port and rail services are unavailable or not available on commercially reasonable terms, could increase transportation and port costs significantly. Further, delays of ocean vessels could affect our revenues, costs and relative competitiveness compared to the supply of steelmaking coal and other products from our competitors. We are currently in the process of testing alternative outbound logistics routes in order to increase transportation and vessel shipping optionality, but we cannot provide any assurance that we will be able to reduce our transportation risks. An increase in transportation costs, including increases resulting from emission control requirements and fluctuation in the price of diesel fuel, could have an adverse effect on our ability to increase or to maintain production on a profit-making basis and could therefore adversely affect our revenues and earnings. Increases in transportation costs could also reduce overall demand for coal or make our coal production less competitive than coal produced from other sources or other regions.

Because we sell a significant portion of our production in international markets, our operations and activities inside and outside the U.S., as well as the shipment of our products across international borders, require us to comply with a number of federal, state, local and foreign laws and regulations, which are complex and increase our risks of doing business, including internationally. These laws and regulations include import and export controls, economic sanctions laws, customs laws, tax laws and anti-corruption laws, such as the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act of 1977, as amended and the U.K. Bribery Act. We cannot predict how these laws or their interpretation, administration and enforcement will change over time. There can be no assurance that our employees, contractors, agents, distributors, customers, payment parties or third parties working on our behalf will not take actions in violation of these laws. Any such violation could result in substantial fines, sanctions, civil and/or criminal penalties and curtailment of operations in certain jurisdictions, and might adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. In addition, actual or alleged violations could damage our reputation and ability to do business. Furthermore, detecting, investigating, and resolving actual or alleged violations is expensive and can consume significant time and attention of our senior management.

In connection with the acquisition of certain assets of Walter Energy consummated on March 31, 2016, we acquired deferred tax assets primarily associated with federal and state NOLs attributable to Walter Energy's write-off of its investment in Walter Energy Canada Holdings, Inc. As of December 31, 2024, we have utilized all of our federal NOLs and federal general business credit carryforwards and we had state NOLs of approximately $945.2 million. On February 12, 2021, the Alabama Governor signed into law Alabama House Bill 170, now Act 2021-1 (the "Act"). The Act makes several changes to the state's business tax structure. Among the provisions of the Act, is the repeal of the so-called corporate income tax "throwback rule." That rule required all sales originating in Alabama and delivered to a jurisdiction where the seller was not subject to tax, to be included in the seller's Alabama income tax base. Thus, prior to repeal of the throwback rule, we had to rely on our Alabama NOL carryforwards to shelter taxes imposed under such throwback rule. As a result of the now repealed throwback rule, effective January 1, 2021, all such sales should now be excluded from Alabama taxable income without the need to utilize Alabama NOLs. As a result of the repeal of the throwback rule, we determined that it is not more likely than not that we would have sufficient taxable income to utilize all of our Alabama deferred income tax assets prior to expiration. Therefore, at December 31, 2024, we have a valuation allowance against our state deferred income tax assets of approximately $44.7 million. Certain factors could change or circumstances could arise that could further limit or eliminate the amount of the available federal and state NOLs to the Company, such as an ownership change, an adjustment by a tax authority or changes in state and federal tax legislation. Also, certain circumstances, including our failing to generate sufficient future taxable income from operations, could limit our ability to fully utilize our deferred tax assets. Under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended (the "Code"), and similar state laws, a company is generally allowed a deduction for federal and state NOLs against its federal and state taxable income. At December 31, 2024, these state NOLs represent a deferred tax asset of approximately $4.1 million, net of the valuation allowance. Our federal and state NOLs are subject to adjustment on audit by the Internal Revenue Service (the "IRS") and state authorities. The IRS has not audited any of the tax returns for any of the years in which the losses giving rise to the federal and state NOLs were generated. Were the IRS to challenge the size or availability of our federal and state NOLs and prevail in such challenge, all or a portion of our federal and state NOLs, or our ability to utilize our federal and state NOLs to offset any future taxable income, may be impaired, which could have a significant negative impact on our financial condition, results of operations and cash flows. A company's ability to deduct its federal and state NOLs and utilize certain other available tax attributes can be substantially constrained under the general annual limitation rules of Section 382 of the Code if it undergoes an "ownership change" as defined in Section 382 or if similar provisions of state law apply. We experienced an ownership change in connection with the acquisition of certain assets of Walter Energy and as such, the limitations under Section 382 would generally apply unless an exception to such rule applies. An exception to the limitation rules of Section 382 is applicable to certain companies under the jurisdiction of a bankruptcy court. Due to certain uncertainties as to whether such exception applies to us, we filed a request for a private letter ruling from the IRS on these points. On September 18, 2017, the IRS issued to us a private letter ruling, which favorably resolved these uncertainties. Based on such private letter ruling, we believe that there is no current limitation under Section 382 on the utilization of our federal NOLs to shield our income from federal taxation and that a similar analysis would be applied to our state NOLs. The private letter ruling was issued based on, among other things, certain facts and assumptions, as well as certain representations, statements and undertakings provided to the IRS by us. If any of these material facts, assumptions, representations, statements or undertakings are, or become, incorrect, inaccurate or incomplete, the private letter ruling may be invalidated and our ability to rely on the conclusions reached therein could be jeopardized. While we do not believe an ownership change has occurred since April 1, 2016, because the rules under Section 382 are highly complex and actions of our stockholders which are beyond our control or knowledge could impact whether an ownership change has occurred, we cannot give you any assurance that another Section 382 ownership change has not occurred or will not occur in the future. As a result of our qualifying for the aforementioned exception, were we to have undergone a subsequent ownership change prior to April 1, 2018, our federal and state NOLs would effectively be reduced to zero. An ownership change after such date would severely limit our ability to utilize our federal and state NOLs and other tax attributes. Certain transactions, including public offerings by us or our stockholders and redemptions may cause us to undergo an "owner shift" which by itself or when aggregated with other owner shifts that we have undergone or will undergo could cause us to experience an ownership change. Our certificate of incorporation contains transfer restrictions (the "382 Transfer Restrictions") to minimize the likelihood of an ownership change. See "-Risks Related to the Ownership of Our Common Stock"-Our common stock is subject to the 382 Transfer Restrictions under our certificate of incorporation and the Amended Rights Agreement which are intended to prevent a Section 382 "ownership change," which if not complied with, could result in the forfeiture of such stock and related distributions or substantial dilution of the stock ownership, respectively. Accordingly, this may impact the market price of our common stock and discourage third parties from seeking strategic transactions with us that could be beneficial to our stockholders." The 382 Transfer Restrictions were originally set to expire in April 2020. Pursuant to the first amendment to the certificate of incorporation approved by the Company's stockholders at the Company's Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on April 23, 2019, the Company effected a three-year extension of the 382 Transfer Restrictions until April 19, 2023, which became effective on March 18, 2020 upon the filing of a certificate of amendment setting forth such amendment with the Secretary of State of the State of Delaware. Pursuant to the second amendment to the certificate of incorporation approved by the Company's stockholders at the Company's Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on April 26, 2022, the Company effected a further extension of the 382 Transfer Restrictions until April 19, 2026. In addition, on February 14, 2020, we adopted an NOLs rights agreement, which was amended on March 4, 2022 and December 8, 2023 (the "Rights Agreement," and as amended, the "Amended Rights Agreement"), to supplement the 382 Transfer Restrictions through April 19, 2026 and increase the exercise price, respectively. See "Part II, Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-Amended Rights Agreement." We may engage in transactions or approve waivers of the 382 Transfer Restrictions or the Amended Rights Agreement that may cause an ownership shift. In doing so, we expect to first perform the calculations necessary to confirm that our ability to use our federal and state NOLs and other federal and state income tax attributes will not be affected or otherwise determine that such transactions or waivers are in our best interests. For example, under certain circumstances, the Board may determine it is in our best interest to exempt certain transactions from the operation of the 382 Transfer Restrictions and the Amended Rights Agreement, if such transaction is determined not to be detrimental to the utilization of our federal and state NOLs or otherwise in our best interests. These calculations are complex and reflect certain necessary assumptions. Accordingly, it is possible that we could approve or engage in a transaction involving our common stock that causes an ownership change and impairs the use of our federal and state NOLs and other federal and state income tax attributes. For more information, see "-Risks Related to the Ownership of Our Common Stock-We could engage in or approve transactions involving our common stock that adversely affect significant stockholders and our other stockholders."

Our businesses are subject to numerous federal, state and local laws and regulations with respect to matters such as: - permitting and licensing requirements;- employee health and safety, including occupational and mine health and safety;- workers' compensation;- black lung disease;- reclamation and restoration of property; and - environmental laws and regulations, including those related to GHGs and climate change; air quality; water quality; stream and surface water quality and protection; management of materials generated by mining operations; the storage, treatment and disposal of wastes; protection of plants and wildlife such as threatened or endangered species; protection of wetlands; and remediation of contaminated soil and groundwater. In addition, the coal industry in the U.S. is affected by significant legislation mandating certain benefits for current and retired coal miners. Compliance with these requirements imposes significant costs on us and can result in reduced productivity. Moreover, the possibility exists that new health and safety legislation and/or regulations may be adopted and/or orders may be entered that may materially and adversely affect our mining operations. We must compensate employees for work-related injuries. If we do not make adequate provisions for our workers' compensation liabilities, it could harm our future operating results. In addition, the erosion through tort liability of the protections we are currently provided by workers' compensation laws could increase our liability for work-related injuries and materially and adversely affect our operating results. Compliance with applicable federal, state and local laws and regulations may be costly and time-consuming and may delay commencement or interrupt continuation of exploration or production at one or more of our operations. These laws are constantly evolving and may become increasingly stringent. The ultimate impact of complying with existing laws and regulations is not always clearly known or determinable due in part to the fact that certain implementing regulations for these laws have not yet been promulgated and in certain instances are undergoing revision. These laws and regulations, particularly new legislative or administrative proposals (or judicial interpretations of existing laws and regulations), along with analogous foreign laws and regulations, could result in substantially increased capital, operating and compliance costs and could have a material adverse effect on our operations and/or our customers' ability to use our products. Due in part to the extensive and comprehensive regulatory requirements, along with changing interpretations of these requirements, violations of applicable federal, state and local laws and regulations occur from time to time in our industry and at our operations. Changes in the law may require an unprecedented compliance effort on our part, could divert management's attention, and may require significant expenditures. To the extent that these expenditures, as with all costs, are not ultimately reflected in the prices of our products and services, operating results will be detrimentally impacted. We believe that our major North American competitors are confronted by substantially similar conditions and thus do not believe that our relative position with regard to such competitors is materially affected by the impact of safety and environmental laws and regulations. However, the costs and operating restrictions necessary for compliance with safety and environmental laws and regulations, which is a major cost consideration for our operations, may have an adverse effect on our competitive position with regard to foreign producers and operators who may not be required to undertake equivalent costs in their operations. In addition, the specific impact on each competitor may vary depending on a number of factors, including the age and location of its operating facilities, applicable state legislation and its production methods. Additionally, MSHA and state regulators may also order the temporary or permanent closing of a mine in the event of certain violations of safety rules, accidents or imminent dangers. In addition, regulators may order changes to mine plans or operations due to their interpretation or application of existing or new laws or regulations. Any required changes to mine plans or operations may result in temporary idling of production or addition of costs.

For the year ended December 31, 2024, we derived approximately 56% of our total sales revenues from our five largest customers. There are inherent risks whenever a significant percentage of total revenues are concentrated with a limited number of customers, and it is not possible for us to predict the future level of demand for our steelmaking coal that will be generated by our largest customers. We expect to renew, extend or enter into new supply agreements with these and other customers; however, we may be unsuccessful in obtaining such agreements with these customers and these customers may discontinue purchasing steelmaking coal from us, reduce the quantity of steelmaking coal that they have historically purchased from us or pressure us to reduce the prices that we charge for our steelmaking coal due to market, economic or competitive conditions. If any of our major customers were to significantly reduce the quantities of steelmaking coal they purchase from us and we are unable to replace these customers with new customers (or we fail to obtain new, additional customers), or if we are otherwise unable to sell steelmaking coal to those customers on terms as favorable to us as the terms under our current agreements, our profitability could suffer significantly.

Our ability to receive payment for steelmaking coal sold and delivered depends on the continued creditworthiness and financial stability of our customers. If we determine that a customer is not creditworthy or if a customer declares bankruptcy, we may not be required to deliver steelmaking coal sold under the customer's sales contract. If this occurs, we may decide to sell the customer's steelmaking coal on the spot market, which may be at prices lower than the contracted price, or we may be unable to sell the steelmaking coal at all. In addition, if customers refuse to accept shipments of our steelmaking coal for which they have an existing contractual obligation, our revenues will decrease and we may have to reduce production at our mines until our customers' contractual obligations are honored. Further, competition with other steelmaking coal suppliers could cause us to extend credit to customers on terms that could increase the risk of payment default. Our inability to collect payment from counterparties to our sales contracts may materially adversely affect our business, financial condition, results of operations and cash flows.