The Ensign Group (ENSG) Risk Analysis

We derived 23.7% and 24.9% of our service revenue from the Medicare programs for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. In addition, many other payors may use published Medicare rates as a basis for reimbursements. Accordingly, if Medicare reimbursement rates are reduced or fail to increase as quickly as our costs, if there are changes in the rules governing the Medicare program that are disadvantageous to our business or industry, or if there are delays in Medicare payments, our business and results of operations will be adversely affected. The Medicare program and its reimbursement rates and rules are subject to frequent change, including statutory and regulatory changes, rate adjustments (including retroactive adjustments), annual caps that limit the amount that can be paid (including deductible and coinsurance amounts), administrative or executive orders and government funding restrictions, all of which may materially adversely affect the rates at which Medicare reimburses us for our services. See Item 1., under Government Regulation, Sequestration of Medicare Rates, for further information. Implementation of these and other types of measures has in the past and could in the future result in substantial reductions in our revenue and operating margins. Additionally, payments can be delayed or declined due to determinations that certain costs are not reimbursable or reasonable because either adequate or additional documentation was not provided or because certain services were not covered or considered medically necessary. Additionally, revenue from these payors can be retroactively adjusted after a new examination during the claims settlement process or as a result of post-payment audits. New legislation and regulatory proposals could impose further limitations on government payments to healthcare providers. CMS often changes the rules governing the Medicare program, including those governing reimbursement. Changes to the Medicare program that could adversely affect our business could include, but are not limited to the following: - administrative or legislative changes to base rates or the bases for payment, including changes to the rates at which Medicare will reimburse services, including the imposition of, and periodic delay in imposing, reductions in reimbursement based on the sequestration of Medicare reimbursement;- limits on the services or types of providers for which Medicare will provide reimbursement;- changes in methodology for patient assessment and/or determination of payment levels;- the reduction or elimination of annual rate increases, implementation of reimbursement decreases, or the end of the reduced payments deferment (See also, Item 1., under Government Regulation); and - an increase in co-payments or deductibles payable by beneficiaries. Among the changes being implemented by CMS are provisions of the IMPACT Act, which imposes a stringent timeline for implementing benchmark quality measures and data metrics across facilities that include SNFs. The enactment mandates specific actions to design a unified payment methodology for post-acute providers, which CMS implements through ongoing regulations. The costs of final implementation may be significant, with potential fines and payment reductions resulting from a failure to meet CMS's implementation requirements. The current Presidential Administration, whether through executive orders or through the actions of HHS, may take additional actions through rulemaking, priority-setting and other exercises of discretion that may materially affect our business in ways that cannot presently be foreseen. Reductions in reimbursement rates or the scope of services being reimbursed could have a material, adverse effect on our revenue, financial condition and results of operations or even result in reimbursement rates that are insufficient to cover our operating costs. In addition, CMS may make future adjustments to reimbursement levels and underlying reimbursement formulae as it continues to monitor the impact of current payments system on patient outcomes and budget neutrality. The Biden-Harris Administration focused on studying the nursing home industry and directed HHS to issue proposed rules based on those studies, including changes to SNF facility reimbursement and specifically, the SNF-VBP Program, which may also adversely affect our reimbursement. The current Presidential Administration's policy directives and priorities regarding the nursing home industry and SNFs in particular are not yet fully known. As of July 4, 2025, Congress passed and the current Presidential Administration signed into law the OBBB, which reversed and limited the efficacy of certain parts of the ACA, including expansion of the Medicaid program in participating states. Additionally, CMS has prescribed strict guidelines regarding how SNFs' are able to use pre-admission arbitration agreements. The metrics potentially affecting our revenues and expenses in future government fiscal years include the SNF healthcare-associated infections (HAI) measurement, total nursing hours per resident day measures, and discharge to community - post acute care measure. The Interoperability Final Rule's implementation beginning in 2026, and to be completed by January 1, 2027, may also adversely affect our reimbursement paid through Medicare, specifically including Medicare Advantage. Loss of Medicare reimbursement, or a delay or default by the government in making Medicare payments, would also have a material adverse effect on our revenue. Non-compliance with Medicare regulations exist, and any penalty, suspension, termination, or other sanction under any state's Medicaid program could lead to reciprocal and commensurate penalties being imposed under the Medicare program, up to termination or rescission of our Medicare participation and payor agreements as noted above. A significant portion of reimbursement for skilled nursing services comes from Medicaid. In fact, Medicaid is our largest source of revenue, accounting for 45.8% and 46.0% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. Medicaid is a state-administered program financed by both state funds and matching federal funds. Medicaid spending has increased rapidly in recent years, becoming a significant component of state budgets, which has led both the federal government and many states to institute measures aimed at controlling the growth of Medicaid spending, and in some instances reducing aggregate Medicaid spending. Since a significant portion of our revenue is generated from our skilled nursing independent subsidiaries in California, Texas and Arizona, any budget reductions or delays in these states could adversely affect our net patient service revenue and profitability. Due to recent fluctuations in state budgets many of the states in which we operate (including those with current budget surpluses), are seeking to contain costs on Medicaid outlays for SNFs, and any such decline could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations. The Medicaid program and its reimbursement rates and rules are subject to frequent change at both the federal and state level, including through changes in laws, regulations, rate adjustments (including retroactive adjustments), administrative or executive orders and government funding restrictions, all of which may materially adversely affect the rates at which our services are reimbursed by state Medicaid plans or the amount of expense we incur. To generate funds to pay for the increasing costs of the Medicaid program, many states utilize financial arrangements commonly referred to as provider taxes. The OBBB's passage prohibits the imposition of new provider taxes or increase of existing provider taxes, except for intermediate care facilities and nursing homes. Under provider tax arrangements, states collect taxes from healthcare providers and then use the revenue to pay the providers as a Medicaid expenditure, which allows the states to then claim additional federal matching funds on the additional reimbursements. Current federal law provides for a cap on the maximum allowable provider tax as a percentage of the providers' total revenue. There can be no assurance that federal law will continue to provide matching federal funds on state Medicaid expenditures funded through provider taxes, or that the current caps on provider taxes will not be reduced. The changes to the Medicaid program enacted in the OBBB limits avenues for states to generate Medicaid funding, and may limit who may qualify for Medicaid long-term care benefits. Additionally, states must conduct Medicaid eligibility redeterminations every six months, rather than annually, for individuals enrolled under Medicaid. Any discontinuance or reduction in federal matching of provider tax-related Medicaid expenditures or delays in eligibility or coverage could have a significant and adverse effect on states' Medicaid expenditures (e.g., California, Colorado, and Nevada), and as a result could have a material and adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations. Additionally, although the CR ending the federal government shutdown extends telehealth waivers and flexibilities for SNFs and providers, uncertainty about their permanent status continues to create significant payment and reimbursement challenges. As the initial telehealth waivers and flexibilities have remained in place over time, Congress has suggested making such waivers and flexibilities permanent through permanent legislation changing the Medicare Act. No amendment to existing law has occurred to make the telehealth waivers that were first granted during the PHE permanent, and the payment for telehealth continues to be addressed through periodic spending legislation passed by Congress (see Proposed, Anticipated and Recently Issued Rulemaking and Administrative Actions). The lack of formality making these telehealth flexibilities permanent through a change in law creates continued uncertainty around their future availability. During the government shutdown, certain telehealth services became non-reimbursable because they did not conform to pre-pandemic telehealth rules, requiring providers and suppliers to revert back to pre-pandemic operation models. Based on this treatment of telehealth flexibilities through periodic spending bills and temporary rulemaking, rather than a permanent amendment of the Medicare Act, providers, SNFs, and our independent subsidiaries face difficult decisions about how to conduct their operations so that they may be reimbursed for their services provided to Medicare beneficiaries.