BankUnited (BKU) Risk Analysis

The processes we use to forecast future performance and estimate expected credit losses, including in hypothetical periods of stress, the effects of changing interest rates, sources and uses of liquidity, real estate values, and economic trends and indicators on our financial condition and results of operations depend upon the use of analytical and forecasting tools and models. These tools and models reflect assumptions that may not be accurate, particularly in times of market stress or other unforeseen or unprecedented circumstances. Furthermore, even if our assumptions are accurate predictors of future performance, the tools and models that utilize them may prove to be inadequate or inaccurate because of other flaws in their design or implementation. If these tools prove to be inadequate or inaccurate, our strategic planning processes, risk management and monitoring framework, earnings and capital may be adversely impacted.

The Federal Reserve Bank and FHLB provide important sources of stable, reliable and specifically with respect to the Federal Reserve Bank, emergency liquidity to banks including BankUnited. Should the availability, nature, design or provisions of the various liquidity facilities provided by these entities change materially, BankUnited's ability to access operating or contingent liquidity as needed could be adversely impacted. The availability of liquidity from these sources is also dependent on the nature and value, which could be negatively impacted by changes in interest rates, of collateral BankUnited is able to provide and on their evaluation of the Bank's creditworthiness. In 2023, the FHFA, the primary regulator of the FHLB system, completed a comprehensive review of the FHLB system which may result in future changes in the regulatory or statutory framework governing the FHLB system. Such changes, if and when enacted, could impact the future amount, terms and availability of liquidity provided by the FHLBs to their members, including BankUnited. Our ability to access funds in a timely basis from the Federal Reserve Bank and FHLB also depends on our operational readiness; while we test operational readiness regularly and believe our processes and procedures are adequate in this regard, a failure of those processes and procedures could compromise our ability to access needed liquidity.

The failure of several regional banks during 2023, characterized by unprecedented levels of deposit outflows, led to an erosion of confidence in the regional banking sector among deposit customers, investors, and other counterparties. In these cases, deposit outflows were exacerbated by the ability of customers to move money quickly and easily using digital channels as well as widespread media coverage and social media exposure. Following the bank failures, many regional banks, including BankUnited, experienced higher than normal deposit outflows. Across the industry, a significant amount of deposits migrated from regional banks to the nation's largest banks. While deposit flows at BankUnited appear to have stabilized since the 2023 bank failures, we remain susceptible to internal or external circumstances, perceptions or events, some of which we may be unable to anticipate or control or may be of an unprecedented nature, that could lead to material unexpected deposit outflows. Depositors increasingly have the ability to move funds quickly and easily. If a significant portion of our deposits were to be withdrawn within a short period of time, the Company's liquidity, financial condition, results of operations and ability to sustain normal operations could be materially, adversely affected.

Effective liquidity management is essential for the operation of our business. We require sufficient liquidity to meet customer loan requests, customer deposit maturities and withdrawals and other cash commitments under both normal operating conditions and under extraordinary or unpredictable circumstances. Our access to funding sources in amounts adequate to finance our activities on terms that are acceptable to us could be impaired by factors or events that affect us specifically or the financial services industry or economy generally. Factors that could detrimentally impact our access to liquidity at an acceptable price, or at all include, but are not limited to: (i) national, to a lesser extent global, and regional economic and market conditions; (ii) interest rates; (iii) competition for depositor funds from banks and other investment alternatives; (iv) the availability of sufficient collateral that is acceptable to the FHLB and the Federal Reserve Bank, both of which are significant sources of contingent liquidity for us; (v) fiscal and monetary policy including the continuing restrictive monetary policy of the Federal Reserve which is negatively impacting systemic liquidity; (vi) public and market perception of BankUnited specifically and the banking sector more broadly; (vii) our ability to access the capital markets as a potential liquidity source; and (viii) regulatory requirements or changes. Our access to liquidity in the form of deposits may also be affected by the liquidity needs of our depositors. A substantial portion of our liabilities consist of deposit accounts that are payable on demand or upon several days' notice, while by comparison, the majority of our assets are loans, which cannot be called or sold in the same time frame. Although we have historically been able to replace maturing deposits and borrowings as necessary, we might not be able to replace such funds in the future. A failure to maintain adequate liquidity could materially and adversely affect our ability to sustain business operations, our financial condition or results of operations.

Our business and financial performance are materially impacted by market interest rates and movements in those rates. Since a high percentage of our assets and liabilities are interest bearing or otherwise sensitive in value to changes in interest rates, changes in rates, in the shape of the yield curve or in spreads between different types of rates can have a material impact on our financial condition and results of operations and the values of our assets and liabilities. Changes in the value of investment securities available for sale and certain derivatives directly impact equity through adjustments of accumulated other comprehensive income and changes in the values of certain other assets and liabilities may directly or indirectly impact earnings. Changes in the values of assets and liabilities brought about by changes in interest rates, even those that do not directly impact reported GAAP or regulatory capital levels, may impact investors' perceptions of the value of the Company, rating agency opinions, or customers' perceptions of the stability of the Company leading to unanticipated deposit outflows. Interest rates are highly sensitive to many factors over which we have no control and which we may not be able to anticipate, including general economic conditions and the monetary and fiscal policies of various governmental bodies, particularly the Federal Reserve Board. The impact of changes in interest rates on our business and financial performance may be exacerbated if the extent or pace of those changes are beyond historical norms. Our earnings and cash flows depend to a great extent upon the level of our net interest income. Net interest income is the difference between the interest income we earn on loans, investments and other interest earning assets, and the interest we pay on interest bearing liabilities, such as deposits and borrowings. A flat or inverted yield curve or tightening credit spreads may limit our ability to add higher yielding assets to the balance sheet and reduce the spread between rates paid on deposits and those earned on interest-earning assets, placing downward pressure on our net interest margin and net interest income. Our deposit costs tend to be correlated with short-term rates; increases in short-term interest rates or generally tightening liquidity conditions may exert upward pressure on our cost of deposits. Changes in interest rates can increase or decrease our net interest income, because different types of assets and liabilities may react differently, and at different times, to market interest rate changes. If interest bearing liabilities mature or reprice more quickly than interest earning assets in a period of rising rates, net interest income will be reduced. If interest earning assets mature or reprice more quickly than interest bearing liabilities, falling interest rates could reduce net interest income. An increase in interest rates may also reduce the demand for loans and lower-priced deposit products, decrease loan repayment rates and negatively affect borrowers' ability to meet their obligations. A decrease in the general level of interest rates may affect us through, among other things, increased prepayments on higher-yielding fixed rate loans and mortgage-backed securities. Competitive conditions may also impact the interest rates we are able to earn on new loans or are required to pay on deposits, negatively impacting both our ability to grow loans and deposits and our net interest income. Our ability to manage interest rate risk could be negatively impacted by unpredictable behavior of depositors in various interest rate environments. A rapid or unanticipated increase or decrease in interest rates, changes in the shape of the yield curve or in spreads between rates could have an adverse effect on our net interest margin and results of operations. We attempt to manage interest rate risk by monitoring and managing the rates, maturity, repricing, mix and balances of the different types of interest-earning assets and interest bearing liabilities and through the use of hedging instruments; however, interest rate risk management techniques are not precise, and we may not be able to successfully manage our interest rate risk. The modeling techniques we use to manage interest rate risk are based on a wide variety of assumptions generally derived from historical data and patterns, and may fail to accurately predict the impact of future movements in interest rates on our financial performance. Assumptions about depositor behavior are integral to interest rate risk modeling and management; technological advances enabling depositors to move money more quickly and to do business with a wide variety of financial services providers not in physical proximity to those depositors as well as the evolving landscape of the financial services industry has made predictive modeling of depositor behavior increasingly difficult.

We maintain an ACL that represents management's estimate of current expected credit losses, or the amount of amortized cost basis not expected to be collected, on our loan portfolio and the amount of credit loss impairment on our available for sale securities portfolio. Determining the amount of the ACL is complex and requires extensive judgment by management about matters that are inherently subjective and uncertain. The measurement of expected credit losses encompasses information about historical events, current conditions and reasonable and supportable economic forecasts. Factors that may be considered in determining the amount of the ACL include, but are not necessarily limited to, product or collateral type, industry, geography, internal risk rating, credit characteristics such as credit scores or collateral values, delinquency rates, historical or expected credit loss patterns and other quantitative and qualitative factors considered by management to have an impact on the adequacy of the ACL and the ability of borrowers to repay their loans. The adequacy of the ACL is also dependent on the effectiveness of the underlying models used in determining the estimate. If management's assumptions and judgments prove to be incorrect, our credit loss models prove to be inaccurate or our processes and controls governing the determination of the amount of the ACL prove ineffective, our ACL may be insufficient and we may be required to increase our ACL. In addition, regulatory authorities periodically review our ACL and may require us to increase our provision for credit losses or recognize further loan charge-offs, based on judgments different from those of our management. Adverse economic conditions could make management's estimate even more complex and difficult to determine. Any increase in our ACL will result in a decrease in net income and capital and could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations. See Item 7 "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-Analysis of the Allowance for Credit Losses" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations-Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates-Allowance for Credit Losses."

As a lender, we are exposed to the risk that our customers will be unable to repay their loans according to their terms and that the collateral securing the payment of their loans, if any, may be insufficient to ensure repayment. Credit losses are inherent in the business of making loans. We are also subject to credit risk that is embedded in our securities portfolio. Our credit risk management framework inclusive of our underwriting standards, procedures and policies may not prevent us from incurring substantial credit losses, particularly if economic or market conditions deteriorate. It is difficult to determine or forecast the many ways in which a decline in economic or market conditions may impact the credit quality of our assets.

The major ratings agencies regularly evaluate us, and their ratings are based on a number of factors, including our financial strength and conditions affecting the financial services industry generally. In general, ratings agencies base their ratings on many quantitative and qualitative factors, including capital adequacy, liquidity, asset quality, business mix and level and quality of earnings, and we may not be able to maintain our current credit ratings. The ratings assigned to the Bank and the Company remain subject to change at any time, and it is possible that any ratings agency will take action to downgrade the Bank and the Company in the future. Additionally, ratings agencies may also make substantial changes to their ratings policies and practices, which may affect our credit ratings. A downgrade of our credit rating, particularly to a level below investment grade, could adversely impact the liquidity or value of our rated securities, our ability to access the capital or certain short-term funding markets, and our cost of capital. Additionally, certain commercial customers could be prohibited from placing deposits with us, impacting our liquidity position.

The bank failures of 2023, surrounding events and related media coverage created significant market volatility and adversely impacted stock prices among publicly traded bank holding companies and, in particular, regional institutions like the Company. These developments negatively impacted customer confidence in the safety and soundness of regional banks and led some depositors to transfer deposits to the largest financial institutions. Many regional banks, including BankUnited, experienced higher than normal deposit outflows immediately following the first regional bank failures in March 2023. Future unanticipated deposit outflows or erosion of customer or investor confidence brought on by external events could materially adversely impact the Company's liquidity, net interest margin, business strategy, market valuation, capital and results of operations. Future material adverse events, not necessarily limited to the circumstances leading to the 2023 bank failures, that impact other financial institutions could, as a result of rapid and broad public exposure, have a direct and material adverse impact on the Company's business, market valuation and results of operations.

The U.S. Government's sovereign credit rating was recently downgraded by a NRSRO. The impact of future downgrades of the U.S. sovereign credit rating or deterioration in its perceived creditworthiness could adversely affect the U.S. and global financial markets and economic conditions. In addition, disagreement over the federal budget has caused and may cause the U.S. federal government to essentially shut down for periods of time. Future events of this nature could have an adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.

Our ability to engage in routine funding and other transactions could be adversely affected by the stability and actions of other financial services institutions. Financial services institutions are interrelated as a result of trading, clearing, servicing, counterparty, and other relationships. We have exposure to an increasing number of financial institutions and counterparties. These counterparties include institutions that may be exposed to various risks over which we have little or no control. Adverse developments affecting the overall strength and soundness of the financial services industry as a whole and third parties with whom we have important relationships could have a negative impact on our business even if we are not directly subject to the same adverse developments.

A significant portion of our loan portfolio is secured by residential or commercial real property. During the ordinary course of business, we may foreclose on and take title to properties securing certain loans, in which case, we are exposed to the risks and costs inherent in the ownership of real estate. The amount that we, as a mortgagee, may realize after a default is dependent upon factors outside of our control, including: (i) general or local economic conditions; (ii) sub-market property values and supply/demand dynamics; (iii) interest rates; (iv) costs of ownership such as real estate taxes, insurance, maintenance; (v) governmental rules and regulations such as but not limited to zoning laws; (vi) natural or man-made disasters such as hurricanes or healthcare crises; (vii) political or social unrest, crime levels and other conditions in sub-markets or neighborhoods where property is located; and (viii) the ability to maintain occupancy particularly of commercial properties. Additionally, bank-owned properties obtained in foreclosure often sell at a discount to the price that might otherwise be obtained in the market.

Our fundamental business strategy is centered on building a leading regional commercial and small business bank, focused on relationship-based granular and diversified business on both sides of the balance sheet. Our near-term strategic priorities include (i) improving the funding mix, primarily by growing core deposits, while maintaining ample liquidity; (ii) improving risk adjusted returns by re-positioning the balance sheet away from typically lower yielding transactional business such as residential mortgages and securities and organically growing core commercial loans, which are generally higher-yielding, as a percentage of the portfolio; (iii) managing credit quality; (iv) managing the rate of increase in expenses; and (v) maintaining robust capital levels. Our ability to execute on these strategic priorities depends on a number of factors, many of which are outside of our direct control. Some of the factors that will impact our ability to execute on our strategic priorities are (i) our ability to attract and retain talent; (ii) competition in our markets; (iii) fiscal and monetary policy and the macro-economic environment; (iv) the health of our primary markets; and (v) the availability and cost of capital. There is no guarantee that we will be able to successfully execute our strategic plans and fundamental business strategy. While acquisitions have not historically been a primary component of our business strategy, we may opportunistically consider potential acquisitions of financial institutions and complementary non-bank businesses. There are risks that may inhibit our ability to successfully execute such acquisitions, such as competition with other potential acquirers, the ability to obtain the required regulatory approvals in a timely matter or at all, the availability of capital and the successful integration of a consummated acquisition and realization of the expected benefits.