BioCardia (BCDA) Risk Analysis

Currently there are eight Morph product family model numbers that have been approved for commercial use in the United States via a 510(k) clearance. A modification to these products could lead to a reclassification and could result in further requirements (including additional clinical trials) to maintain each respective clearance or approval. If we fail to comply with such further requirements, we may be required to cease marketing or to recall the modified product until we obtain clearance or approval, and we may be subject to significant regulatory fines or penalties.

We are a party to a license and distribution agreement with Biomet Biologics, LLC under which we obtained an exclusive, nontransferable, worldwide distribution right, patent license and trademark license to Biomet Biologic, LLC's point of care cell processing platform. Under the terms of the agreement, we are obligated to pay Biomet Biologics, LLC a royalty based on the price of the disposables in the CardiAMP cell processing platform. A breach or termination of this agreement would materially adversely affect the clinical development or commercialization strategy of our CardiAMP therapeutic candidate as currently planned. A reduction or elimination of our rights under this agreement may result in our having to negotiate new or reinstated arrangements on less favorable terms, or our not having sufficient intellectual property rights to operate our business as currently planned. The occurrence of such events could materially harm our business and financial condition.

In some countries, particularly European Union member states, Japan, Australia and Canada, the pricing of therapies and products is subject to governmental control. In these countries, pricing negotiations with governmental authorities can take considerable time after receipt of marketing approval for a therapy or product. In addition, there can be considerable pressure by governments and other stakeholders on prices and reimbursement levels, including as part of cost containment measures. Political, economic and regulatory developments may further complicate pricing negotiations, and pricing negotiations may continue after reimbursement has been obtained. Reference pricing used by various European Union member states and parallel distribution, or arbitrage between low-priced and high-priced member states, can further reduce prices. In some countries, we or our partners may be required to conduct a clinical trial or other studies that compare the cost-effectiveness of our therapeutic candidates to other available therapies in order to obtain or maintain reimbursement or pricing approval. Publication of discounts by third-party payors or authorities may lead to further pressure on the prices or reimbursement levels within the country of publication and other countries. If reimbursement of our therapies or products is unavailable or limited in scope or amount, or if pricing is set at unsatisfactory levels, our business, revenues or profitability could be adversely affected.

We face an inherent risk of product liability as a result of the human clinical use of our therapeutic candidates and products and will face an even greater risk if we continue to commercialize our therapeutic candidates and products. For example, we may be sued if any therapy or product we develop allegedly causes injury or is found to be otherwise unsuitable during product testing, manufacturing, marketing or sale. Any such product liability claims may include allegations of defects in manufacturing, defects in design, a failure to warn of inherent dangers, negligence, strict liability, and a breach of warranties. Claims could also be asserted under state consumer protection acts. If we cannot successfully defend ourselves against product liability claims, we may incur substantial liabilities or be required to limit commercialization. Even a successful defense would require significant financial and management resources. Regardless of the merits or eventual outcome, liability claims may result in: - decreased demand, even if such products or therapies are approved;- injury to our reputation;- withdrawal of clinical trial participants;- costs to defend the related litigations;- a diversion of management's time and our resources;- substantial monetary awards to trial participants or patients;- recalls, withdrawals, or labeling, marketing or promotional restrictions;- increased cost of liability insurance;- loss of revenue;- the inability to receive regulatory approvals or commercialize our approved products or therapies; and - a decline in our share price. Although we maintain product liability insurance with coverage that we believe is consistent with industry norms for companies at our stage of development, the amount or breadth of our coverage may not be adequate for the claims that may be made against us. Failure to obtain and retain sufficient product liability insurance at an acceptable cost to protect against potential product liability claims could prevent or inhibit the commercialization of products or therapies we develop. Additionally, our insurance policies have various exclusions, and we may be subject to a product liability claim for which we have no coverage or reduced coverage. Any claim that may be brought against us could result in a court judgment or settlement in an amount that is not covered, in whole or in part, by our insurance or that is in excess of the limits of our insurance coverage. We will have to pay any amounts awarded by a court or negotiated in a settlement that exceed our coverage limitations or that are not covered by our insurance, and we may not have, or be able to obtain, sufficient capital to pay such amounts.

Throughout the clinical trial process, we may obtain the private health information of our trial subjects. There are a number of state, federal and international laws protecting the privacy and security of health information and personal data. As part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, or ARRA, Congress amended the privacy and security provisions of HIPAA. HIPAA imposes limitations on the use and disclosure of an individual's healthcare information by healthcare providers conducting certain electronic transactions, healthcare clearinghouses, and health insurance plans, collectively referred to as covered entities. The HIPAA amendments also impose compliance obligations and corresponding penalties for non-compliance on certain individuals and entities that provide services to or perform certain functions on behalf of healthcare providers and other covered entities involving the use or disclosure of individually identifiable health information, collectively referred to as business associates. ARRA also made significant increases in the penalties for improper use or disclosure of an individual's health information under HIPAA and extended enforcement authority to state attorneys general. The amendments also create notification requirements to federal regulators, and in some cases local and national media, for individuals whose health information has been inappropriately accessed or disclosed. Notification is not required under HIPAA if the health information that is improperly used or disclosed is deemed secured in accordance with certain encryption or other standards developed by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, or HHS. Most states have laws requiring notification of affected individuals and state regulators in the event of a breach of personal information, which is a broader class of information than the health information protected by HIPAA. Many state laws impose significant data security requirements, such as encryption or mandatory contractual terms to ensure ongoing protection of personal information. Activities outside of the United States implicate local and national data protection standards, impose additional compliance requirements and generate additional risks of enforcement for noncompliance. The European Union's Data Protection Directive, Canada's Personal Information Protection and Electronic Documents Act and other data protection, privacy and similar national, state/provincial and local laws may also restrict the access, use and disclosure of patient health information abroad. We may be required to expend significant capital and other resources to ensure ongoing compliance with applicable privacy and data security laws, to protect against security breaches and hackers or to alleviate problems caused by such breaches.

The FDA and other relevant regulatory agencies have the authority to require or request the recall in the event of material deficiencies or defects in design or manufacture or in the event an unacceptable risk to health. Manufacturers may, under their own initiative, also initiate a recall. A government-mandated or voluntary recall could occur as a result of an unacceptable risk to health, component failures, manufacturing errors, design or labeling defects or other deficiencies and issues. Recalls would divert managerial and financial resources and have an adverse effect on our reputation, financial condition and operating results. Further, under the FDA's reporting regulations, we are required to report to the FDA any event that reasonably suggests that our products may have caused or contributed to a death or serious injury or in which our product malfunctioned and, if the malfunction of the same or similar product marketed by us were to recur, would likely cause or contribute to death or serious injury. The FDA also requires reporting of serious, life-threatening, unexpected and other adverse experiences and the submission of periodic safety reports and other information. Malfunctions or other adverse event reports may result in a voluntary or involuntary recall and other adverse actions, which could divert managerial and financial resources, impair our ability to manufacture in a cost-effective and timely manner and have an adverse effect on our reputation, financial condition and operating results. Similar reporting requirements exist in Europe and other jurisdictions. Any adverse event involving our products could result in future voluntary corrective actions, such as recalls or customer notifications, or regulatory agency action, which could include inspection, mandatory recall or other enforcement action. Any corrective action, whether voluntary or involuntary, will require the dedication of our time and capital, distract management from operating our business and may harm our reputation and financial results. For example, in 2014 we notified the FDA that we were going to initiate a voluntary recall of our Morph AccessPro product based on a manufacturing observation, which was completed to the FDA's satisfaction in the same year, and in 2017 we updated our instructions for use for the Helix™ and Morph catheter products to provide guidance on known potential risks. There can be no guarantee that we will not experience similar product recalls or changes in the future with these products or our other products or therapeutic candidates, if approved.

We are exposed to the risk of employee fraud or other misconduct. Misconduct by employees could include failures to comply with FDA regulations, to provide accurate information to the FDA, to comply with manufacturing standards we have established, to comply with federal and state healthcare fraud and abuse laws and regulations, to report financial information or data accurately or to disclose unauthorized activities to us. In particular, sales, marketing and business arrangements in the healthcare industry are subject to extensive laws and regulations intended to prevent fraud, kickbacks, self-dealing and other abusive practices. These laws and regulations restrict or prohibit a wide range of activity relating to pricing, discounting, marketing and promotion, sales commissions, customer incentive programs and other business arrangements. Employee misconduct could also involve the improper use of information obtained in the course of clinical trials, which could result in regulatory sanctions and serious harm to our reputation, or a breach of insider trading laws. It is not always possible to identify and deter employee misconduct, and the precautions we take to detect and prevent this activity may not be effective in controlling unknown or unmanaged risks or losses or in protecting us from governmental investigations or other actions or lawsuits stemming from a failure to be in compliance with such laws or regulations. If any such actions are instituted against us, and we are not successful in defending ourselves or asserting our rights, those actions could have a significant impact on our business, including the imposition of significant fines or other sanctions.

Our manufacturing processes and those of our third-party suppliers are required to comply with the FDA's QSRs, which covers the procedures and documentation of the design, testing, production, control, quality assurance, labeling, packaging, storage and shipping. We are also subject to similar state requirements and licenses. In addition, we must engage in extensive record keeping and reporting and must make available our manufacturing facilities and records for periodic unannounced inspections by governmental agencies, including the FDA, state authorities and comparable agencies in other countries. If we fail a Quality System inspection, our operations could be disrupted and our manufacturing interrupted. Failure to take adequate corrective action in response to an adverse Quality System inspection could result in, among other things, a shut-down of our manufacturing operations, significant fines, suspension of marketing clearances and approvals, seizures or recalls, operating restrictions and criminal prosecutions, any of which would cause our business to suffer. Furthermore, our key component suppliers may not currently be or may not continue to be in compliance with applicable regulatory requirements, which may result in manufacturing delays and cause our revenues to decline. We have registered with the FDA as a medical device manufacturer and have obtained a manufacturing license from the California Department of Health Services, or CDHS. The FDA has broad post-market and regulatory enforcement powers. We are subject to unannounced inspections by the FDA and the Food and Drug Branch of CDHS to determine our compliance with the QSR and other regulations, and these inspections may include the manufacturing facilities of our suppliers. If the FDA or CDHS inspect our facility and discover compliance problems, we may have to shut down our facility and cease manufacturing until we can take the appropriate remedial steps to correct the audit findings. Taking corrective action may be expensive, time consuming and a distraction for management and if we experience a shutdown or delay at our manufacturing facility, we may be unable to produce our products, which may have an adverse impact on our business.

We may face competition for the allogeneic Neurokinin-1 Receptor Positive therapies from biosimilars due to the changing regulatory environment. In the United States, the Biologics Price Competition and Innovation Act of 2009 created an abbreviated approval pathway for biological products that are demonstrated to be "highly similar," or biosimilar to, or "interchangeable" with an FDA-approved innovator (original) biological product. This new pathway could allow competitors to reference data from innovator biological products already approved after 12 years from the time of approval. In Europe, a competitor may reference data from biological products already approved but will not be able to get on the market until 10 years after the time of approval. This 10-year period will be extended to 11 years if, during the first eight of those 10 years, the marketing authorization holder obtains an approval for one or more new therapeutic indications that bring significant clinical benefits compared with existing therapies. In addition, companies may be developing biosimilars in other countries that could compete with our allogeneic Neurokinin-1 Receptor Positive therapies, if approved. Additionally, the FDA may approve our competitors' products through a PMA pathway, similar to CardiAMP. If competitors are able to obtain marketing approval for biosimilars referencing Neurokinin-1 Receptor Positive allogeneic cell therapy, if approved, it may become subject to competition from such biosimilars with the attendant competitive pressure and consequences.

Even when product development is successful and regulatory approval has been obtained, our ability to generate significant revenue depends on the acceptance of our products by physicians, payors and patients. Many potential market participants have limited knowledge of, or experience with, cell-based products and therapies, so gaining market acceptance and overcoming any safety or efficacy concerns may be more challenging than for more traditional therapies. Our efforts to educate the medical community and third-party payors on the benefits of our therapeutic candidates may require significant resources and may never be successful. Such efforts to educate the marketplace may require more resources than are required by conventional therapies marketed by our competitors. We cannot assure you that our products will achieve the expected market acceptance and revenue if and when they obtain the requisite regulatory approvals. Alternatively, even if we obtain regulatory approval, that approval may be for indications or patient populations that are not as broad as intended or desired or may require labeling that includes significant use or distribution restrictions or safety warnings. The market acceptance of each of our therapeutic candidates will depend on a number of factors, including: - the efficacy and safety of the therapeutic candidate, as demonstrated in clinical trials;- the clinical indications for which the product is approved, and the label approved by regulatory authorities for use with the product, including any warnings that may be required on the label;- acceptance by physicians and patients of the product as a safe and effective treatment;- the cost, safety and efficacy of treatment in relation to alternative treatments;- the continued projected growth of markets for our various indications;- relative convenience and ease of administration;- the prevalence and severity of adverse side effects; and - the effectiveness of our sales and marketing efforts. Market acceptance is critical to our ability to generate significant revenue. Any therapeutic candidate, if approved and commercialized, may be accepted in only limited capacities or not at all. If any approved products are not accepted by the market to the extent that we expect, we may not be able to generate significant revenue and our business would suffer.

Our ability to commercialize any therapeutic candidates or products successfully will depend, in part, on the extent to which coverage and reimbursement for our therapeutic candidates or products and related treatments will be available from government healthcare programs, private health insurers, managed care plans, and other organizations. Additionally, even if there is a commercially viable market, if the level of third-party reimbursement is below our expectations, our revenue and profitability could be materially and adversely affected. Third-party payors, such as government programs, including Medicare in the United States, or private healthcare insurers, carefully review and increasingly question the coverage of, and challenge the prices charged for medical products and services, and many third-party payors limit coverage of or reimbursement for newly approved therapies or products. Reimbursement rates and coverage from private health insurance companies vary depending on the company, the insurance plan and other factors. As a result, the coverage determination process will require us to provide scientific and clinical support for the use of our therapeutic candidates to each private health insurance company separately, with no assurance that adequate coverage and reimbursement will be obtained. A current trend in the U.S. healthcare industry as well as in other countries around the world is toward cost containment, including a number of legislative and regulatory changes to the health care system that could impact our ability to sell our approved therapies or products profitably. In particular, the Medicare Prescription Drug, Improvement, and Modernization Act of 2003 revised the payment methodology for many products under Medicare in the United States, which has resulted in lower rates of reimbursement. In 2010, the Affordable Care Act was enacted. This expansion in the government's role in the U.S. healthcare industry may further lower rates of reimbursement. Other legislative changes have been proposed and adopted in the United States since the Affordable Care Act was enacted. These changes included aggregate reductions to Medicare payments to providers of up to 2% per fiscal year, effective April 1, 2013, which, due to subsequent legislative amendments, will stay in effect through 2027 unless additional Congressional action is taken. In January 2013, the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 was signed into law, which, among other things, reduced Medicare payments to several providers, and increased the statute of limitations period for the government to recover overpayments to providers from three to five years. These laws may result in additional reductions in Medicare and other healthcare funding, which could have a material adverse effect on customers for our products, if approved, and accordingly, on our financial operations. In 2017, the European Union released new regulations to ensure patient safety with the use of pharmaceuticals, medical devices and in-vitro diagnostics that were to go into effect over a three-year period from 2020 to 2022. The new regulations replace predecessor directives and emphasize a global convergence of regulations. Marketing authorization timelines will become more protracted and the costs of operating in Europe will increase. A significantly more costly path to regulatory compliance is anticipated. Adjusting to the new Medical Device Regulation may prove to be costly and disruptive to our business. In February 2023, the European Parliament voted to extend the Medical Devices Regulation transition periods to avoid a shortage of life-saving products in the economic region. It is expected that conformity assessment process for MDR needs to be completed by the end of 2027 for high-risk devices and the end of 2028 for lower-risk devices. Large public and private payors, managed care organizations, group purchasing organizations and similar organizations are exerting increasing influence on decisions regarding the use of, and reimbursement levels for, particular treatments. In particular, third-party payors may limit the covered indications. Cost-control initiatives could decrease the price we might establish, which could result in revenue and profitability being lower than anticipated. There may be significant delays in obtaining coverage and reimbursement for newly approved therapies or products, and coverage may be more limited than the purposes for which the therapy or product is approved by the FDA or other regulatory authorities. Moreover, eligibility for coverage and reimbursement does not imply that a therapy or product will be paid for in all cases or at a rate that covers our costs, including research, development, manufacture, sale and distribution expenses. Interim reimbursement levels, if applicable, may also be insufficient to cover our and any partner's costs and may not be made permanent. Our inability to promptly obtain coverage and profitable payment rates from both government-funded and private payors for any approved therapies or products that we develop could have a material adverse effect on our operating results, our ability to raise capital needed to commercialize therapies or products and our overall financial condition. Furthermore, reimbursement systems in international markets vary significantly by country and by region, and reimbursement approvals must be obtained on a country-by-country basis. In many countries, therapies or products cannot be commercially launched until reimbursement is approved and the negotiation process in some countries can exceed 12 months. In addition, pricing and reimbursement decisions in certain countries can be affected by decisions taken in other countries, which can lead to mandatory price reductions and/or additional reimbursement restrictions across a number of other countries, which may thereby adversely affect our sales and profitability. In the event that countries impose prices which are not sufficient to allow us to generate a profit, this would adversely affect sales and profitability.

We are subject to risks related to public health crises such as the global pandemic associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result of the COVID-19 outbreak, we have experienced and may continue to experience disruptions that could severely impact our business, preclinical studies and clinical trials, including: - Fewer individuals undertaking voluntary treatment, including participation in clinical trials, whether due to contracting COVID-19, self-isolating or quarantining to lower the risk of contracting COVID-19 or being unable to access care as a result of healthcare providers tending to COVID-19 patients, resulting in delays or difficulties in enrolling patients in our clinical trials;- delays or difficulties in clinical site initiation, including difficulties in recruiting clinical site investigators and clinical site staff;- delays or disruptions in non-clinical experiments due to unforeseen circumstances at contract research organizations and vendors along their supply chain;- increased rates of patients withdrawing from our clinical trials following enrollment as a result of contracting COVID-19, being forced to quarantine, or not accepting home health visits;- diversion of healthcare resources away from the conduct of clinical trials, including the diversion of hospitals serving as our clinical trial sites and hospital staff supporting the conduct of our clinical trials;- interruption of key clinical trial activities, such as clinical trial site data monitoring, due to limitations on travel imposed or recommended by federal or state governments, employers and others or interruption of clinical trial subject visits and study procedures (particularly any procedures that may be deemed non-essential), which may impact the integrity of subject data and clinical study endpoints;- interruption or delays in the operations of the FDA and comparable foreign regulatory agencies, which may impact approval timelines;- interruption of, or delays in receiving, supplies of our product candidates from our contract manufacturing organizations due to staffing shortages, production slowdowns or stoppages and disruptions in delivery systems; and - limitations on employee resources that would otherwise be focused on the conduct of our preclinical studies and clinical trials, including because of sickness of employees or their families, the desire of employees to avoid contact with large groups of people, an increased reliance on working from home or mass transit disruptions. Numerous state and local jurisdictions have imposed, and others in the future may impose, "shelter-in-place" orders, quarantines, executive orders and similar government orders and restrictions for their residents to control the spread of COVID-19. Multiple times in 2021, the governor of California, where our facilities are located, issued a "shelter-in-place" order restricting non-essential activities, travel and business operations for an indefinite period of time, subject to certain exceptions for necessary activities. Such orders and restrictions, have resulted in slowdowns and delays, travel restrictions and cancellation of events, among other effects, thereby negatively impacting our operations. Such orders or restrictions may continue or be re-instated, thereby causing additional negative impact on our operations. In addition, the spread of more contagious or deadly variants, such as the Delta and Omicron variants, could cause the COVID-19 pandemic to last longer or be more severe than expected. In addition, the widespread pandemic has resulted in, and may continue to result in, significant disruption of global financial markets. As a result, we may face difficulties raising capital through sales of our common stock or such sales may be on unfavorable terms. The extent to which the COVID-19 pandemic or other viral pandemics may impact our business, preclinical studies and clinical trials will depend on future developments, which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted with confidence. In addition, a recession, further market correction or depression resulting from the spread of COVID-19 could materially affect our business and the value of our notes and our common stock.