AXIA Energia (AXIA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $24.42B
• Dividend Yield: 6.95%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.47M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.47
• Revenue Growth: 1.52%
• EPS Growth: -159.17%
• Country: US
• Employees: 7,710
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Renewable Utilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 2,028,544,300
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,023,719
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,474,279
• PEG Ratio: 0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 1.75
• P/FCF Ratio: 9.11
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 8.64
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.95
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.58
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 40.74
• 1Y Price Target: $10.40
• Price Target Upside: -1.89% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 2
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: $11.50 ▲(8.49% Upside)

The stock score is driven by strong technical momentum and strategic initiatives highlighted in the earnings call. However, financial performance concerns, particularly negative net income and valuation challenges, weigh on the score.

Positive Factors

High gross and EBIT margins

Exceptional structural margins provide durable earnings resilience versus volume or price swings common in utilities. High gross and EBIT margins support internal funding for capex and transition investments, bolster free cash flow generation, and cushion returns during pricing volatility.

Stable balance sheet, moderate leverage

Moderate leverage and a solid equity base give the company financial flexibility to pursue auctions, fund capital investments, and withstand rate or demand cycles. Lower relative debt reduces refinancing risk and supports sustained investment through the energy transition.

Strategic repositioning toward clean energy

Active portfolio reshaping, targeted acquisitions, a BRL10bn investment program, and an AI forecasting partnership represent a durable shift to cleaner generation and operational efficiency. This structural strategy should increase contracted revenues and long-term competitiveness in auctions.

Negative Factors

Negative net income

Persistent negative net income erodes retained earnings and raises questions about core profitability. Over time, recurring losses can constrain reinvestment, force reliance on asset sales or higher leverage, and put pressure on the sustainability of generous shareholder payouts.

Declining revenue growth

A negative TTM revenue growth rate signals structural top-line pressure beyond one-off items. Continued revenue contraction undermines scale economics, may compress margins and returns, and complicates funding of capex and dividends without tariff reforms or asset monetization.

Suboptimal cash conversion

Operating cash flow covers only 60% of reported net income, indicating weaker earnings quality and cash conversion. This limits internal funding for sustained capex and dividends, increasing reliance on divestments or external financing for strategic investments.

AXIA Energia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, thermoelectric, nuclear, wind, and solar plants. It also owns and operates 44 hydroelectric plants with a total capacity of 42,293.5 megawatt (MW); and 66,539.17 kilometers of transmission lines. AXIA Energia SA was formerly known as Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras S.A. - Eletrobrás. AXIA Energia SA was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

How the Company Makes Money

Eletrobras generates revenue through multiple streams primarily focused on the sale of electricity. The company's revenue model includes the sale of energy generated from its diverse portfolio of power plants, which includes hydroelectric, thermal, and renewable energy facilities. Eletrobras also earns money through long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) with distributors and large industrial clients. Additionally, the company receives revenue from the transmission of electricity via its extensive high-voltage transmission network. Key partnerships with other energy companies and governmental entities further enhance its revenue potential, especially in joint ventures for energy projects. Eletrobras is also influenced by regulatory frameworks set by the Brazilian government, which can impact pricing and revenue generation.

AXIA Energia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The company shows strong gross profit margins and a stable balance sheet. However, the negative net income and declining revenue growth are concerning. Cash flow generation is positive, but the conversion to net income could be improved.

Income Statement

The income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a decline in revenue growth rate at -2.38%, which is concerning. However, the company maintains a strong gross profit margin of 82.35% and a decent EBIT margin of 29.74%. The net profit margin is negative, indicating a net loss, which is a significant weakness.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is relatively stable with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.62, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity is low at 5.49%, suggesting inefficiencies in generating returns from equity. The equity ratio stands at 41.02%, reflecting a solid equity base relative to total assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive free cash flow growth rate of 3.66% in the TTM period, which is a positive sign. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.60, indicating that cash flow from operations is not fully covering net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.83, showing a healthy conversion of net income to free cash flow.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	42.64B	46.09B	36.57B	35.30B	35.99B	29.31B
Gross Profit	18.22B	20.38B	17.96B	18.65B	25.78B	19.86B
EBITDA	5.18B	25.13B	13.29B	9.39B	14.63B	11.42B
Net Income	-5.79B	11.90B	4.48B	3.77B	5.87B	6.39B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	266.50B	289.87B	267.06B	270.22B	188.30B	178.97B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	28.26B	35.52B	18.97B	22.93B	15.67B	13.96B
Total Debt	73.47B	78.24B	61.83B	61.15B	46.14B	49.10B
Total Liabilities	157.16B	167.87B	154.59B	159.19B	111.89B	105.22B
Stockholders Equity	109.29B	121.86B	112.33B	110.50B	76.12B	73.48B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	13.75B	8.86B	4.11B	-28.43B	5.78B	4.07B
Operating Cash Flow	16.76B	12.39B	8.24B	5.20B	6.97B	5.13B
Investing Cash Flow	-7.40B	-8.66B	827.04M	-24.72B	-998.45M	375.17M
Financing Cash Flow	-12.54B	9.80B	-6.76B	30.07B	-6.06B	-5.55B

AXIA Energia Technical Analysis

• Last Price: 10.60

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXIA, the sentiment is undefined. The current price of 10.6 is equal to the 20-day moving average (MA) of ―, equal to the 50-day MA of ―, and equal to the 200-day MA of ―, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of ― indicates undefined momentum. The RSI at ― is undefined, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of ― is undefined, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a undefined sentiment for AXIA.

AXIA Energia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%