Axia Energia Sa (AXIA)
NYSE:AXIA
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AXIA Energia
(NYSE:AXIA)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(13.21% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/24/26
AXIA’s score is driven primarily by a solid but volatile financial profile—strong recent cash generation and manageable leverage are offset by a 2025 revenue decline and a meaningful drop in net margins. The earnings call added support via upbeat turnaround messaging, record dividends, and a defined investment ramp, while technicals remain mixed with soft near-term momentum despite longer-term trend support. Valuation is a modest positive given the ~6.1% dividend yield and a ~17 P/E.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow, with 2025 FCF covering roughly 83% of net income, provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and debt service. This cash conversion supports the firm's ability to execute its multi-year investment plan and sustain distributions despite cyclical swings.
Negative Factors
Revenue and margin pressure
Recent revenue decline and a sharp drop in net margin indicate weaker bottom-line conversion and earnings volatility. Sustained margin compression reduces retained earnings and debt coverage capacity, complicating long-term planning for capex and dividends if not reversed by improved pricing or cost control.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent positive operating and free cash flow, with 2025 FCF covering roughly 83% of net income, provides durable internal funding for capex, dividends and debt service. This cash conversion supports the firm's ability to execute its multi-year investment plan and sustain distributions despite cyclical swings.
Read all positive factors
AXIA Energia (AXIA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.87B
Dividend Yield6.95%
Average Volume (3M)2.49M
Price to Earnings (P/E)2.1
Beta (1Y)0.51
Revenue Growth1.52%
EPS Growth-159.17%
CountryUS
Employees7,710
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRenewable Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.19
Shares Outstanding2,028,544,300
10 Day Avg. Volume2,929,436
30 Day Avg. Volume2,485,701
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.34
Price to Book (P/B)0.95
Price to Sales (P/S)2.73
P/FCF Ratio9.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.53
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.61
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit10.93
Enterprise Value/Ebitda79.14
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$10.40Price Target Upside-1.89% Downside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)1.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.93B
AXIA Energia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, thermoelectric, nuclear, wind, and solar plants. It also o...
AXIA Energia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive operational and financial inflection: management declared the turnaround complete, reported record dividends (BRL 8.3 billion), materially ramped investments (BRL 9.6 billion in 2025; quarterly investments ~BRL 4 billion, +~30% YoY), and showed strong adjusted income (+141% YoY) and robust EBITDA adjusted for one‑offs. Strategic de‑risking (asset sales, transmission auction wins) and governance/ESG progress (Novo Mercado proposal, CDP A‑List) were emphasized. Noted challenges include transient revenue impacts (wind reimbursements ~BRL 250 million; transmission volatility ~BRL 225 million), higher incentive and rebranding costs (~BRL 168 million combined), hydrology‑driven price volatility, and early‑stage uncertainty around battery/storage economics. Overall, the positive financial momentum, increased investment pipeline, and corporate governance improvements outweigh the manageable/partly transitory lowlights.Positive Updates
Conclusion of Turnaround and Improved Controls
Management stated the traditional turnaround is concluded, with the 2026 budget reflecting this; improved timeliness in reporting (annual results published in February for the first time) evidences stronger controls and processes.
Negative Updates
Wind Farm Revenue Reimbursements
Fourth‑quarter wind farm revenue reimbursements totaled approximately BRL 250 million (payments back when contracted wind production underperformed), negatively impacting Q4 revenue comparatives.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Conclusion of Turnaround and Improved Controls
Management stated the traditional turnaround is concluded, with the 2026 budget reflecting this; improved timeliness in reporting (annual results published in February for the first time) evidences stronger controls and processes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said the turnaround is complete and the 2026 budget reflects a step‑up in investment, with capex rising from BRL 9.6 billion in 2025 to >BRL 10 billion in the near term and an expected annual run‑rate of BRL 12–14 billion in 2026–27 (Q4 investments ~BRL 4 billion, +~30% YoY); capital allocation will follow a 5‑year framework balancing dividends/buybacks and growth (BRL 8.3 billion of dividends paid for 2025), despite recognition of deferred tax assets of ~BRL 2 billion and adjusted income of BRL 1.2 billion (+141% YoY). Management highlighted transmission wins with ~BRL 1.6 billion of associated investment and RAP of BRL 140 million/year, a generation margin of BRL 101/MWh (generation margin +25% YoY excluding wind reimbursements), Q4 wind reimbursements of ~BRL 250 million and a Q3–Q4 transmission revenue swing of BRL 225 million; non‑recurring items included higher profit‑sharing/LTI (~+BRL 108 million) and rebranding costs (~BRL 60 million). The growth pipeline targets >6 GW of hydro and ~4 GW of batteries, the company plans to participate in capacity (Mar 18), transmission (Mar 27 and Oct) and future battery auctions, and will propose migration to Novo Mercado at the April 1 shareholder meeting.AXIA Energia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
67
Positive
Cash Flow
71
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 41.28B | 46.09B | 36.57B | 35.30B | 35.99B |
| Gross Profit | 17.72B | 20.38B | 17.96B | 18.65B | 25.78B |
| EBITDA | 3.61B | 25.13B | 13.29B | 9.39B | 14.63B |
| Net Income | 6.56B | 11.90B | 4.48B | 3.77B | 5.87B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 279.69B | 289.87B | 267.06B | 270.22B | 188.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 27.55B | 35.52B | 18.97B | 22.93B | 15.67B |
| Total Debt | 77.26B | 78.24B | 61.83B | 61.15B | 46.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 161.18B | 167.87B | 154.59B | 159.19B | 111.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 118.43B | 121.86B | 112.33B | 110.50B | 76.12B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 12.00B | 8.86B | 4.11B | -28.43B | 5.78B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 14.51B | 12.39B | 8.24B | 5.20B | 6.97B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -5.57B | -8.66B | 827.04M | -24.72B | -998.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -19.09B | 9.80B | -6.76B | 30.07B | -6.06B |
AXIA Energia Technical Analysis
10.60
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXIA, the sentiment is undefined. The current price of 10.6 is equal to the 20-day moving average (MA) of ―, equal to the 50-day MA of ―, and equal to the 200-day MA of ―, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of ― indicates undefined momentum. The RSI at ― is undefined, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of ― is undefined, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a undefined sentiment for AXIA.
AXIA Energia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% |
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.