Axia Energia Sa (AXIA)
NYSE:AXIA
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AXIA Energia
(NYSE:AXIA)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$13.50
▲(27.36% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/10/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong recent margins and cash generation, though volatile) and very attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield). Technicals are mixed with short-term softness despite a longer-term uptrend, while the latest earnings call was broadly constructive but highlighted several manageable operational and regulatory uncertainties.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation and FCF conversion
AXIA converts a high share of accounting profits into cash: TTM operating cash flow and FCF are large in absolute terms and FCF conversion (~81% of net income) supports durable capital allocation to dividends, debt servicing and growth capex, reducing refinancing risk over the next several years.
Negative Factors
Large absolute debt load and declining equity
AXIA’s leverage is moderate in ratio terms but the large absolute debt burden reduces financial flexibility. If rates rise or cash flow weakens, servicing and refinancing could constrain capital allocation or force asset sales, making the balance sheet a structural vulnerability over the medium term.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation and FCF conversion
AXIA converts a high share of accounting profits into cash: TTM operating cash flow and FCF are large in absolute terms and FCF conversion (~81% of net income) supports durable capital allocation to dividends, debt servicing and growth capex, reducing refinancing risk over the next several years.
Read all positive factors
AXIA Energia (AXIA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$25.63B
Dividend Yield6.95%
Average Volume (3M)2.46M
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.7
Beta (1Y)0.53
Revenue Growth7.89%
EPS Growth-17.49%
CountryUS
Employees7,710
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRenewable Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.13
Shares Outstanding2,028,544,300
10 Day Avg. Volume2,120,476
30 Day Avg. Volume2,456,598
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.35
Price to Book (P/B)0.95
Price to Sales (P/S)2.73
P/FCF Ratio9.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.21
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.27
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.77
Enterprise Value/Ebitda25.30
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.8
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.18B
AXIA Energia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AXIA Energia SA, through its subsidiaries, engages in the generation, transmission, and commercialization of electricity in Brazil. The company generates electricity through hydroelectric, thermoelectric, nuclear, wind, and solar plants. It also o...
How the Company Makes Money
AXIA Energia generates revenue through the production and distribution of renewable energy, such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power. The company also earns income by offering energy efficiency consulting services, project development for sust...
AXIA Energia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive operational and financial inflection: management declared the turnaround complete, reported record dividends (BRL 8.3 billion), materially ramped investments (BRL 9.6 billion in 2025; quarterly investments ~BRL 4 billion, +~30% YoY), and showed strong adjusted income (+141% YoY) and robust EBITDA adjusted for one‑offs. Strategic de‑risking (asset sales, transmission auction wins) and governance/ESG progress (Novo Mercado proposal, CDP A‑List) were emphasized. Noted challenges include transient revenue impacts (wind reimbursements ~BRL 250 million; transmission volatility ~BRL 225 million), higher incentive and rebranding costs (~BRL 168 million combined), hydrology‑driven price volatility, and early‑stage uncertainty around battery/storage economics. Overall, the positive financial momentum, increased investment pipeline, and corporate governance improvements outweigh the manageable/partly transitory lowlights.Positive Updates
Conclusion of Turnaround and Improved Controls
Management stated the traditional turnaround is concluded, with the 2026 budget reflecting this; improved timeliness in reporting (annual results published in February for the first time) evidences stronger controls and processes.
Negative Updates
Wind Farm Revenue Reimbursements
Fourth‑quarter wind farm revenue reimbursements totaled approximately BRL 250 million (payments back when contracted wind production underperformed), negatively impacting Q4 revenue comparatives.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Conclusion of Turnaround and Improved Controls
Management stated the traditional turnaround is concluded, with the 2026 budget reflecting this; improved timeliness in reporting (annual results published in February for the first time) evidences stronger controls and processes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said the turnaround is complete and the 2026 budget reflects a step‑up in investment, with capex rising from BRL 9.6 billion in 2025 to >BRL 10 billion in the near term and an expected annual run‑rate of BRL 12–14 billion in 2026–27 (Q4 investments ~BRL 4 billion, +~30% YoY); capital allocation will follow a 5‑year framework balancing dividends/buybacks and growth (BRL 8.3 billion of dividends paid for 2025), despite recognition of deferred tax assets of ~BRL 2 billion and adjusted income of BRL 1.2 billion (+141% YoY). Management highlighted transmission wins with ~BRL 1.6 billion of associated investment and RAP of BRL 140 million/year, a generation margin of BRL 101/MWh (generation margin +25% YoY excluding wind reimbursements), Q4 wind reimbursements of ~BRL 250 million and a Q3–Q4 transmission revenue swing of BRL 225 million; non‑recurring items included higher profit‑sharing/LTI (~+BRL 108 million) and rebranding costs (~BRL 60 million). The growth pipeline targets >6 GW of hydro and ~4 GW of batteries, the company plans to participate in capacity (Mar 18), transmission (Mar 27 and Oct) and future battery auctions, and will propose migration to Novo Mercado at the April 1 shareholder meeting.AXIA Energia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 43.34B | 41.28B | 40.18B | 37.16B | 34.07B | 34.63B |
| Gross Profit | 38.75B | 36.25B | 34.23B | 31.63B | 29.24B | 30.46B |
| EBITDA | 7.31B | 3.61B | 20.73B | 11.81B | 10.74B | 15.31B |
| Net Income | 9.49B | 6.56B | 10.38B | 4.55B | 3.64B | 5.65B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 276.48B | 279.69B | 289.87B | 267.06B | 270.22B | 188.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 28.01B | 27.55B | 35.52B | 18.97B | 22.93B | 15.67B |
| Total Debt | 73.26B | 77.26B | 78.24B | 61.83B | 61.15B | 46.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 156.19B | 161.18B | 167.87B | 154.59B | 159.19B | 111.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 112.67B | 118.43B | 121.86B | 112.33B | 110.50B | 76.12B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.43B | 12.00B | 8.86B | 4.11B | -28.43B | 5.78B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 14.08B | 14.51B | 12.39B | 8.24B | 5.20B | 6.97B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.77B | -5.57B | -8.66B | 827.04M | -24.72B | -998.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -13.36B | -19.09B | 9.80B | -6.76B | 30.07B | -6.06B |
AXIA Energia Technical Analysis
10.60
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXIA, the sentiment is undefined. The current price of 10.6 is equal to the 20-day moving average (MA) of ―, equal to the 50-day MA of ―, and equal to the 200-day MA of ―, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of ― indicates undefined momentum. The RSI at ― is undefined, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of ― is undefined, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a undefined sentiment for AXIA.
AXIA Energia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% |
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.