Want to see AXIA full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
AXIA Energia
(NYSE:AXIA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$12.00
▲(13.21% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/05/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial performance (strong recent margins and meaningful free cash flow) and supportive valuation (moderate P/E and high dividend yield). These positives are tempered by weak technicals, with price below major moving averages and negative momentum.
Positive Factors
Free cash flow generation
AXIA’s large, persistent free cash flow in absolute terms supports sustained investment in generation, dividend capacity and debt paydown. High FCF conversion (≈81%) indicates earnings quality and funds internal growth, reducing reliance on markets over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Large absolute debt load
Despite moderate leverage ratios, the very large nominal debt stock increases refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity. If macro rates or energy prices worsen, servicing costs and covenant risk could strain cash flow and constrain capital allocation choices.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Free cash flow generation
AXIA’s large, persistent free cash flow in absolute terms supports sustained investment in generation, dividend capacity and debt paydown. High FCF conversion (≈81%) indicates earnings quality and funds internal growth, reducing reliance on markets over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
AXIA Energia (AXIA) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$24.16B
Dividend Yield6.95%
Average Volume (3M)2.05M
Price to Earnings (P/E)13.0
Beta (1Y)0.46
Revenue Growth7.89%
EPS Growth-17.49%
CountryUS
Employees7,168
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryRenewable Utilities
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.13
Shares Outstanding2,336,989,300
10 Day Avg. Volume1,926,956
30 Day Avg. Volume2,050,741
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.44
Price to Book (P/B)0.95
Price to Sales (P/S)2.73
P/FCF Ratio9.40
Enterprise Value/Market Cap7.44
Enterprise Value/Revenue4.15
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.64
Enterprise Value/Ebitda26.11
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)0.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)$8.98B
AXIA Energia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AXIA Energia S.A., operating with its various subsidiary companies, is a prominent entity in Brazil's electricity market, responsible for the generation, transmission, and commercialization of electrical power. The firm utilizes a diverse portfoli...
AXIA Energia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 26, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a positive operational and financial inflection: management declared the turnaround complete, reported record dividends (BRL 8.3 billion), materially ramped investments (BRL 9.6 billion in 2025; quarterly investments ~BRL 4 billion, +~30% YoY), and showed strong adjusted income (+141% YoY) and robust EBITDA adjusted for one‑offs. Strategic de‑risking (asset sales, transmission auction wins) and governance/ESG progress (Novo Mercado proposal, CDP A‑List) were emphasized. Noted challenges include transient revenue impacts (wind reimbursements ~BRL 250 million; transmission volatility ~BRL 225 million), higher incentive and rebranding costs (~BRL 168 million combined), hydrology‑driven price volatility, and early‑stage uncertainty around battery/storage economics. Overall, the positive financial momentum, increased investment pipeline, and corporate governance improvements outweigh the manageable/partly transitory lowlights.Positive Updates
Conclusion of Turnaround and Improved Controls
Management stated the traditional turnaround is concluded, with the 2026 budget reflecting this; improved timeliness in reporting (annual results published in February for the first time) evidences stronger controls and processes.
Negative Updates
Wind Farm Revenue Reimbursements
Fourth‑quarter wind farm revenue reimbursements totaled approximately BRL 250 million (payments back when contracted wind production underperformed), negatively impacting Q4 revenue comparatives.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Conclusion of Turnaround and Improved Controls
Management stated the traditional turnaround is concluded, with the 2026 budget reflecting this; improved timeliness in reporting (annual results published in February for the first time) evidences stronger controls and processes.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said the turnaround is complete and the 2026 budget reflects a step‑up in investment, with capex rising from BRL 9.6 billion in 2025 to >BRL 10 billion in the near term and an expected annual run‑rate of BRL 12–14 billion in 2026–27 (Q4 investments ~BRL 4 billion, +~30% YoY); capital allocation will follow a 5‑year framework balancing dividends/buybacks and growth (BRL 8.3 billion of dividends paid for 2025), despite recognition of deferred tax assets of ~BRL 2 billion and adjusted income of BRL 1.2 billion (+141% YoY). Management highlighted transmission wins with ~BRL 1.6 billion of associated investment and RAP of BRL 140 million/year, a generation margin of BRL 101/MWh (generation margin +25% YoY excluding wind reimbursements), Q4 wind reimbursements of ~BRL 250 million and a Q3–Q4 transmission revenue swing of BRL 225 million; non‑recurring items included higher profit‑sharing/LTI (~+BRL 108 million) and rebranding costs (~BRL 60 million). The growth pipeline targets >6 GW of hydro and ~4 GW of batteries, the company plans to participate in capacity (Mar 18), transmission (Mar 27 and Oct) and future battery auctions, and will propose migration to Novo Mercado at the April 1 shareholder meeting.AXIA Energia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
69
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 43.34B | 41.28B | 40.18B | 37.16B | 34.07B | 34.63B |
| Gross Profit | 38.75B | 36.25B | 34.23B | 31.63B | 29.24B | 30.46B |
| EBITDA | 6.89B | 3.61B | 20.73B | 11.81B | 10.74B | 15.31B |
| Net Income | 9.49B | 6.56B | 10.38B | 4.55B | 3.64B | 5.65B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 279.91B | 279.69B | 289.87B | 267.06B | 270.22B | 188.30B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 27.68B | 27.55B | 35.52B | 18.97B | 22.93B | 15.67B |
| Total Debt | 74.16B | 77.26B | 78.24B | 61.83B | 61.15B | 46.14B |
| Total Liabilities | 158.72B | 161.18B | 167.87B | 154.59B | 159.19B | 111.89B |
| Stockholders Equity | 121.15B | 118.43B | 121.86B | 112.33B | 110.50B | 76.12B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 11.43B | 12.00B | 8.86B | 4.11B | -28.43B | 5.78B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 14.08B | 14.51B | 12.39B | 8.24B | 5.20B | 6.97B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -10.77B | -5.57B | -8.66B | 827.04M | -24.72B | -998.45M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -13.36B | -19.09B | 9.80B | -6.76B | 30.07B | -6.06B |
AXIA Energia Technical Analysis
10.60
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AXIA, the sentiment is undefined. The current price of 10.6 is equal to the 20-day moving average (MA) of ―, equal to the 50-day MA of ―, and equal to the 200-day MA of ―, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of ― indicates undefined momentum. The RSI at ― is undefined, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of ― is undefined, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a undefined sentiment for AXIA.
AXIA Energia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% |
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
AXIA Energia Corporate Events
Axia Energia Launches Ninth Debenture Issue to Fund Santo Antônio Hydropower Project
Jun 26, 2026
On June 22, 2026, Axia Energia S.A. launched a public offering of its ninth issue of simple, unsecured debentures, not convertible into shares, targeting professional investors under Brazil’s automatic registration regime. The initial offer ...
AXIA Energia Board Approves Up to R$1 Billion Ninth Debenture Issue for Infrastructure Project
Jun 26, 2026
On June 22, 2026, AXIA Energia’s board of directors held its 1,099th meeting and unanimously approved the company’s ninth issue of simple, unsecured debentures, not convertible into shares, to be publicly distributed exclusively to pro...
AXIA Energia Launches Ninth Debenture Issuance Under Automatic CVM Registration
Jun 26, 2026
AXIA Energia S.A. approved on June 22, 2026, the ninth issue of simple debentures, not convertible into shares, in a single series aimed exclusively at professional investors. The debentures will be publicly distributed under the company’s a...
AXIA Energia Board Clears Up to R$2 Billion in New Debentures
Jun 26, 2026
On June 22, 2026, AXIA Energia’s board approved its 10th issuance of simple, unsecured, non-convertible debentures, in up to two tranches, with a base size of R$1.6 billion and a greenshoe of up to 25%, allowing the transaction to reach as m...
AXIA Energia Secures R$3 Billion in Revolving Credit to Strengthen Liquidity
Jun 26, 2026
On June 25, 2026, AXIA Energia S.A. announced that it had executed three revolving credit facility agreements totaling R$3.0 billion with Banco do Brasil, Bradesco and Itaú Unibanco, each with a three-year maturity. The company stated that th...
AXIA Energia Approves Up to R$1 Billion in Tax-Incentivized Debentures
Jun 23, 2026
On June 22, 2026, AXIA Energia S.A.’s board approved its ninth issuance of simple, non-convertible, senior unsecured debentures in a single series, targeting an initial principal of R$800 million with an overallotment option of up to 25%, al...
AXIA Energia to Redeem Portion of Class C Preferred Shares and ADSs in July 2026
Jun 18, 2026
On June 13, 2026, AXIA Energia’s board approved a partial mandatory redemption of 576,923 Class C preferred shares, representing about 0.0951% of that class and totaling R$30 million, at a redemption price of R$52 per share based on the prev...
AXIA Energia Retains S&P brAAA Rating as Governance Outlook Improves
Jun 16, 2026
AXIA Energia S.A. announced on June 15, 2026, that SP reaffirmed its national scale long- and short-term issuer credit ratings at brAAA/brA-1+ and its issue ratings at brAAA. The credit rating agency also maintained brAAA issue ratings for subsidi...
AXIA Energia Details Tax Rules for July Redemption of Class C Preferred Shares
Jun 15, 2026
On June 14, 2026, AXIA Energia announced details of the tax treatment for the redemption of its class C preferred shares, known as PNC, following its earlier material fact on the transaction. The redemption will use June 18, 2026 as the record dat...
AXIA Energia Launches First Redemption and Conversion Test of Class C Preferred Shares
Jun 15, 2026
On June 14, 2026, AXIA Energia’s board approved the redemption of 576,923 Class C preferred shares (PNCs), equal to R$30 million and 0.0951% of that class, in what it describes as an unprecedented transaction to test the mechanics of redeemi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.