PainChek Ltd (PCK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$31.35M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.56M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.92
• Revenue Growth: 25.98%
• EPS Growth: 22.10%
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Healthcare Information Services
• EPS (TTM): -0.02
• Shares Outstanding: 209,007,310
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,466,878
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,559,149
• PEG Ratio: 0.48
• Price to Book (P/B): -70.25
• Price to Sales (P/S): 23.25
• P/FCF Ratio: -11.56
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 45 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.15 ▼(-49.66% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/07/26

The score is held back primarily by weak financial fundamentals—large ongoing losses, persistent cash burn, and negative equity—despite improving revenue and gross margin. Technicals also remain bearish with the price below major moving averages and negative MACD, while valuation is mixed due to a loss-driven negative P/E and no dividend support.

Positive Factors

Recurring SaaS licensing model

A subscription/licensing model to aged care and hospital customers creates recurring revenue and higher customer lifetime value. Enterprise deployments plus implementation and support services make revenue more predictable and sticky, supporting durable cash inflows as adoption scales.

Top-line growth and improving unit economics

Accelerating revenue alongside rising gross margin indicates improving product-market fit and better per-unit economics. If sustained, this trend enables operating leverage: revenue growth can progressively absorb fixed costs, improving the path to profitability over the medium term.

No bank debt on the balance sheet

Absence of debt reduces solvency risk and interest obligations, giving the company financial flexibility while scaling. This structural strength lowers default risk and preserves capacity to raise equity or enter strategic partnerships without immediate refinancing pressure.

Negative Factors

Persistent heavy cash burn

Sustained negative operating and free cash flow of several million erodes runway and forces dependence on external funding. Over months this limits reinvestment, constrains scaling initiatives, and raises execution risk if capital markets or fundraising windows tighten.

Deep and ongoing unprofitability

A net margin near -228% shows revenue is far below covering operating costs and implies fundamental profitability issues. Without material margin expansion or substantial revenue scale, persistent losses undermine long-term sustainability and require structural changes to business economics.

Negative shareholders' equity

Transition to negative equity signals accumulated losses that weaken the capital cushion. This reduces the company's ability to absorb shocks, may limit financing options or require dilutive recapitalisation, and elevates structural funding risk over the medium term.

PainChek Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

PainChek Limited develops and commercializes mobile medical device applications that provides pain assessment for individuals. The company offers PainChek, which uses camera in smartphones and tablets to capture video that is analyzed in real time using facial recognition software to indicate the presence of the pain. It serves patients suffering with dementia. The company was formerly known as ePAT Technologies Ltd and changed its name to PainChek Limited in January 2018. PainChek Limited is based in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

PainChek makes money primarily by licensing/subscribing its PainChek software to organisations that deliver care (e.g., aged care providers, hospitals, and other healthcare services) and charging recurring fees for access to its platform. Revenue is typically generated from: (1) Software licensing / subscription fees: fees paid by enterprise customers to deploy the PainChek application across facilities, staff, or patient cohorts (exact pricing and unit metrics not publicly specified here -> null). (2) Implementation and support services: onboarding, training, and customer support provided to institutional customers as part of rollout and ongoing use (specific service fee structures -> null). (3) Commercial partnerships and channel distribution: the company may earn revenue through partnerships that help distribute, integrate, or promote the product into care workflows and procurement channels (specific partners and commercial terms not provided here -> null). (4) Geographic expansion/enterprise contracting: revenue growth is driven by signing additional enterprise customers and expanding usage within existing customers (e.g., more sites/users), which increases recurring software revenue. Details such as exact contract sizes, margins, or the proportion of revenue by stream are not available in this response -> null.

PainChek Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Revenue growth accelerated (~11% in 2025 vs 2024) and gross margin improved (~30% vs ~27%), but the business remains deeply unprofitable (net margin ~-228%) with heavy ongoing cash burn (operating and free cash flow ~-6.8M). No debt helps, but negative equity in 2025 increases balance-sheet strain.

Income Statement

Revenue growth accelerated meaningfully, with 2025 revenue up ~11% versus 2024 (and well above 2023), and gross margin improved to ~30% in 2025 from ~27% in 2024 (a clear improvement versus earlier years that had negative gross margin). However, the company remains deeply unprofitable: 2025 net margin is roughly -228% and EBIT/EBITDA margins are similarly negative, indicating operating costs still far exceed the current revenue base. Overall, top-line momentum and improving unit economics are positives, but profitability is still a major weakness.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet carries no debt across the period, which reduces financial risk. The key concern is equity deterioration: stockholders’ equity moved from positive levels in 2024 to negative in 2025, signaling accumulated losses and a weaker capital cushion despite total assets of ~2.1M in 2025. With losses continuing, the balance sheet quality hinges on future funding needs and the ability to restore equity.

Cash Flow

Cash burn remains heavy and persistent, with operating cash flow at approximately -6.8M in 2025 and free cash flow also around -6.8M. Free cash flow worsened year-over-year in 2025 (about -13% growth), showing limited progress toward self-funding operations. While cash flow and net loss broadly track each other (free cash flow roughly in line with net income magnitude), the overall profile is still defined by sustained negative cash generation.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.59M	3.36M	2.67M	1.95M	978.57K	214.80K
Gross Profit	733.87K	997.74K	726.66K	712.51K	-258.82K	-424.21K
EBITDA	-6.98M	-7.65M	-9.49M	-8.61M	-6.80M	-7.06M
Net Income	-6.96M	-7.67M	-8.31M	-7.57M	-5.72M	-6.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.54M	2.15M	4.18M	2.80M	6.65M	11.81M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	4.78M	1.62M	3.56M	2.51M	6.14M	11.42M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	3.04M	3.26M	2.89M	2.13M	1.83M	3.57M
Stockholders Equity	2.49M	-1.11M	1.29M	668.13K	4.82M	8.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-6.03M	-6.77M	-7.16M	-6.34M	-7.02M	-4.18M
Operating Cash Flow	-6.01M	-6.75M	-7.13M	-6.32M	-7.00M	-4.12M
Investing Cash Flow	-17.57K	-12.17K	-34.25K	-12.44K	-21.96K	-60.03K
Financing Cash Flow	9.00M	4.82M	8.21M	2.70M	1.75M	9.48M

PainChek Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 0.29
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:PCK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.17, above the 50-day MA of 0.22, and below the 200-day MA of 0.37, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 36.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 11.11 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:PCK.

PainChek Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ALC	67 Neutral	AU$141.01M	26.51	4.37%	―	10.06%	―
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
M7T	47 Neutral	AU$62.28M	-6.28	-23.86%	―	15.99%	22.05%
RHT	47 Neutral	AU$19.56M	3.95	7.57%	―	28.91%	-1050.00%
PCK	45 Neutral	AU$31.35M	-3.13	-1009.84%	―	25.98%	22.10%
BMT	44 Neutral	AU$42.14M	-5.70	-14.19%	―	3.61%	-17.03%

PainChek Ltd Corporate Events

PainChek Options Expire Unexercised, Simplifying Capital Structure

PainChek Ltd has announced the cessation of a tranche of listed options, with 16,653,867 PCKAZ options expiring unexercised on 3 March 2026. The lapse of these options slightly simplifies the company’s capital structure but does not raise new capital, implying no immediate dilution or cash inflow impact for existing shareholders.

The notification formalises the removal of these options from the company’s issued securities on the ASX and reflects standard lifecycle management of expiring convertible instruments. While operational activities are unaffected, the change may modestly alter future potential equity overhang and is relevant for investors tracking PainChek’s fully diluted capital base.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PCK) stock is a Hold with a A$0.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PainChek Ltd stock, see the AU:PCK Stock Forecast page.

PainChek Narrows Grant Support as Loss Widens and Auditor Flags Going Concern

PainChek Limited reported half-year revenue from continuing operations of $1.73 million for the six months to 31 December 2025, up 5% year on year, but total revenue fell 42% to $1.76 million due to a sharp reduction in grant income. The company’s net loss attributable to members widened by 42% to $4.70 million, net tangible assets per share eased to 1.2 cents from 1.3 cents, no dividends were declared, and its auditor highlighted a going concern emphasis of matter, underscoring ongoing financial pressures and funding risks for shareholders.

The results indicate that while core operating revenue is growing modestly, PainChek remains reliant on external funding and faces profitability and balance sheet challenges. The going concern emphasis may affect investor sentiment and underscores the importance of future capital management and execution of its growth strategy to stabilise its financial position in a competitive health technology market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PCK) stock is a Hold with a A$0.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PainChek Ltd stock, see the AU:PCK Stock Forecast page.

PainChek issues new long-dated employee options to support growth strategy

PainChek Ltd has issued a total of 325,000 unquoted options under its employee incentive scheme, with exercise prices of $0.04 and $0.0356 and expiries in March and February 2030 respectively. The move underscores the company’s use of long-dated equity incentives to align staff interests with shareholders and support retention as it executes its growth and product commercialisation strategy.

The new options, which are not intended to be quoted on the ASX, expand PainChek’s pool of employee equity and may contribute to future dilution if exercised. For stakeholders, this structure signals continued investment in human capital while preserving cash, a common approach among growth-stage healthtech firms seeking to balance funding constraints with the need to attract and retain specialised talent.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PCK) stock is a Sell with a A$0.20 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PainChek Ltd stock, see the AU:PCK Stock Forecast page.

PainChek Wins US RTM Reimbursement Pathway, Unlocking New Growth in Remote Pain Monitoring

PainChek has secured an independent US legal opinion confirming its AI-driven PainChek device qualifies as an FDA-regulated medical device for Remote Therapeutic Monitoring reimbursement, enabling US healthcare professionals to use it when submitting claims to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Building on its FDA De Novo classification and unique ability to assess pain in non-verbal dementia patients with musculoskeletal conditions, the company can now participate in the rapidly expanding RTM market, projected to be worth billions of dollars annually, and is adding an RTM reimbursement-based model to its existing SaaS offering to long-term care facilities. This dual-revenue approach, combined with long-dated US patent protection and partnerships covering more than 25,000 long-term care facilities and providers, materially strengthens PainChek’s growth prospects and competitive position in the US pain management and remote monitoring market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PCK) stock is a Hold with a A$0.26 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PainChek Ltd stock, see the AU:PCK Stock Forecast page.

PainChek schedules investor webinar to follow January quarterly update

PainChek Ltd, a global medtech company specialising in AI-driven pain assessment tools delivered via smartphones and tablets, has established a strong presence in aged care and related sectors, with regulatory approvals in multiple major markets and adoption in thousands of facilities worldwide. The company has announced it will host an investor webinar on 30 January 2026, following the release of its quarterly update and cash flow report, giving shareholders and investors an opportunity to hear the latest presentation from the CEO and ask questions, signalling continued engagement with the market as it advances the rollout and commercialisation of its pain assessment technology across clinical and home care settings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PCK) stock is a Hold with a A$0.26 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PainChek Ltd stock, see the AU:PCK Stock Forecast page.

PainChek Director John Murray Allows 40,000 Options to Lapse Without Changing Shareholding

PainChek Limited has disclosed a change in the interests of director John Murray, who has allowed 40,000 options held indirectly through Nanjop Pty Ltd as trustee for the Murring Family Trust to lapse, resulting in no remaining options and no change to his total shareholding in the company. Following the lapse, Murray continues to hold 1,463,860 fully paid ordinary shares indirectly and 390,600 fully paid ordinary shares directly, a development that slightly alters the structure of his equity exposure by removing option-based incentives but leaves his direct and indirect share ownership unchanged, with no on-market trades reported and no closed-period trading issues raised.

PainChek Options Lapse, Simplifying Capital Structure

PainChek Ltd has announced the expiry and cessation of 15,686,749 listed options (ASX code PCKAY) that carried an exercise price of A$0.50 and were due to expire on 19 December 2025, with the options lapsing unexercised. The expiry slightly simplifies the company’s capital structure by removing a large block of out-of-the-money options from its issued securities, which may clarify the potential future dilution profile for existing shareholders but does not immediately affect PainChek’s current cash position or operations.

PainChek Seeks ASX Quotation for 24,775 Newly Issued Ordinary Shares

PainChek Ltd has applied to the ASX for quotation of 24,775 new fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities, with an issue date of 23 December 2025. The relatively small share issuance modestly increases the company’s quoted capital base and reflects ongoing conversion of incentive or financing-related instruments, with limited immediate impact on its overall capital structure but indicating continued engagement from holders of convertible securities.

PainChek Confirms Director Share Issue Under Placement, Affirms Compliance and Disclosure

PainChek Ltd has issued 176,471 fully paid ordinary shares to directors under a previously announced placement to sophisticated, professional and other exempt investors, following shareholder approval at its 2025 Annual General Meeting. The company has confirmed that the shares were issued without a prospectus under the Corporations Act exemption, that it is up to date with its financial reporting and continuous disclosure obligations, and that there is no undisclosed price-sensitive information, providing assurance to the market and existing shareholders about regulatory compliance and transparency around the capital raising.

PainChek CEO Increases Shareholding Through AGM-Approved Placement

PainChek Limited has disclosed a change in the holdings of its managing director, Philip Daffas, who has increased his direct stake in the company through the issue of 147,059 fully paid ordinary shares, taking his total shareholding to 3,114,226 shares alongside existing options and performance rights. The new shares were issued as part of a placement previously approved by shareholders at the 2025 Annual General Meeting, signalling continued alignment between executive leadership and shareholders’ interests and underscoring board-level participation in the company’s capital-raising activities.

PainChek Seeks ASX Quotation for New Tranche of Ordinary Shares

PainChek Ltd has applied to the ASX for quotation of 176,471 new fully paid ordinary shares, issued on 22 December 2025 under a previously announced transaction. The modest share issuance expands the company’s quoted capital base and reflects ongoing use of equity to support its corporate or transactional activities, with limited immediate dilution but signalling continued capital management as PainChek advances its digital health technology in the market.