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PainChek Ltd (AU:PCK)
ASX:PCK
Australian Market

PainChek Ltd (PCK) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:PCK

PainChek Ltd

(Sydney:PCK)

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Neutral 42 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.24
▼(-17.24% Downside)
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance—deep unprofitability, heavy cash burn, and negative equity—despite improving revenue and gross margin. Technicals add pressure with a clear downtrend and negative MACD, while valuation provides only modest support because the negative P/E reflects ongoing losses and no dividend yield is available.
Positive Factors
Recurring SaaS business model
A subscription/licensing model creates recurring revenue and higher customer lifetime value versus one-off sales. That structural model supports predictable revenue, easier unit-economics scaling and potential upsell/expansion within aged‑care and hospital customers over the medium term.
Improving top-line and gross margin
Sustained revenue growth combined with improving gross margins indicates that core product unit economics are strengthening. If these trends persist, the company can leverage fixed operating costs and progress toward operating leverage, improving prospects for durable profitability as scale increases.
No debt on balance sheet
A debt‑free balance sheet lowers solvency and refinancing risk and reduces fixed interest costs. Structurally this gives management flexibility to prioritize investment or raise equity on better terms, supporting longer‑term product development and commercial expansion.
Negative Factors
Persistent cash burn
Sustained negative operating and free cash flow at scale creates ongoing financing needs, increasing dilution or debt dependence risk. Over the next several quarters this structural cash burn constrains runway for commercial expansion and product investment absent reliable funding sources.
Deep unprofitability
Very wide negative margins show operating costs far exceed current revenue and suggest the business has not yet achieved scale or cost structure alignment. This structural profitability gap must close materially to sustain independent operations and support long‑term growth.
Deteriorating equity cushion
A shift to negative equity reflects accumulated losses and weakens the company’s capital buffer. Structurally, this increases vulnerability to shocks, complicates access to certain funding channels and can limit strategic flexibility until profitability or recapitalization restores equity.

PainChek Ltd (PCK) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

PainChek Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPainChek Limited develops and commercializes mobile medical device applications that provides pain assessment for individuals. The company offers PainChek, which uses camera in smartphones and tablets to capture video that is analyzed in real time using facial recognition software to indicate the presence of the pain. It serves patients suffering with dementia. The company was formerly known as ePAT Technologies Ltd and changed its name to PainChek Limited in January 2018. PainChek Limited is based in Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyPainChek Ltd generates revenue primarily through the licensing of its PainChek app to healthcare facilities, aged care providers, and hospitals. The company employs a subscription-based model, where clients pay periodic fees to access the software. Additionally, PainChek may engage in partnerships with healthcare organizations and technology companies to expand its market reach and integrate its technology into broader digital health ecosystems. Revenue streams may also include government grants or funding for innovation in healthcare technology, further supporting its commercial operations.

PainChek Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Revenue growth and gross margin improved in 2025, but results remain dominated by very large losses (net margin roughly -228%) and significant ongoing cash burn (operating/free cash flow about -6.8M). No debt helps, yet the move to negative equity in 2025 signals balance-sheet strain.
Income Statement
28
Negative
Revenue growth accelerated meaningfully, with 2025 revenue up ~11% versus 2024 (and well above 2023), and gross margin improved to ~30% in 2025 from ~27% in 2024 (a clear improvement versus earlier years that had negative gross margin). However, the company remains deeply unprofitable: 2025 net margin is roughly -228% and EBIT/EBITDA margins are similarly negative, indicating operating costs still far exceed the current revenue base. Overall, top-line momentum and improving unit economics are positives, but profitability is still a major weakness.
Balance Sheet
34
Negative
The balance sheet carries no debt across the period, which reduces financial risk. The key concern is equity deterioration: stockholders’ equity moved from positive levels in 2024 to negative in 2025, signaling accumulated losses and a weaker capital cushion despite total assets of ~2.1M in 2025. With losses continuing, the balance sheet quality hinges on future funding needs and the ability to restore equity.
Cash Flow
22
Negative
Cash burn remains heavy and persistent, with operating cash flow at approximately -6.8M in 2025 and free cash flow also around -6.8M. Free cash flow worsened year-over-year in 2025 (about -13% growth), showing limited progress toward self-funding operations. While cash flow and net loss broadly track each other (free cash flow roughly in line with net income magnitude), the overall profile is still defined by sustained negative cash generation.
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.51M3.36M2.67M1.95M978.57K214.80K
Gross Profit763.81K997.74K726.66K712.51K-258.82K-424.21K
EBITDA-5.40M-7.65M-9.49M-8.61M-6.80M-7.06M
Net Income-5.42M-7.67M-8.31M-7.57M-5.72M-6.06M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.15M2.15M4.18M2.80M6.65M11.81M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.62M1.62M3.56M2.51M6.14M11.42M
Total Debt0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Total Liabilities3.26M3.26M2.89M2.13M1.83M3.57M
Stockholders Equity-1.11M-1.11M1.29M668.13K4.82M8.24M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-5.71M-6.77M-7.16M-6.34M-7.02M-4.18M
Operating Cash Flow-5.70M-6.75M-7.13M-6.32M-7.00M-4.12M
Investing Cash Flow-12.17K-12.17K-34.25K-12.44K-21.96K-60.03K
Financing Cash Flow4.82M4.82M8.21M2.70M1.75M9.48M

PainChek Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.29
Price Trends
50DMA
0.31
Negative
100DMA
0.42
Negative
200DMA
0.41
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.01
Negative
RSI
39.44
Neutral
STOCH
16.92
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:PCK, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.29 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.27, below the 50-day MA of 0.31, and below the 200-day MA of 0.41, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 16.92 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:PCK.

PainChek Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
67
Neutral
AU$154.44M95.831.89%10.06%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
51
Neutral
AU$52.31M-8.45-13.83%3.61%-17.03%
48
Neutral
AU$97.53M-16.09-12.35%15.99%22.05%
48
Neutral
AU$19.94M-11.84-17.05%28.91%-1050.00%
42
Neutral
AU$54.34M-5.72-8647.54%25.98%22.10%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:PCK
PainChek Ltd
0.25
-0.01
-3.85%
AU:M7T
Mach7 Technologies
0.42
0.00
0.00%
AU:RHT
Resonance Health Ltd
0.05
-0.01
-22.41%
AU:BMT
Beamtree Holdings Ltd
0.18
-0.11
-37.93%
AU:ALC
Alcidion Group Limited
0.12
0.05
64.29%

PainChek Ltd Corporate Events

PainChek Wins US RTM Reimbursement Pathway, Unlocking New Growth in Remote Pain Monitoring
Jan 28, 2026

PainChek has secured an independent US legal opinion confirming its AI-driven PainChek device qualifies as an FDA-regulated medical device for Remote Therapeutic Monitoring reimbursement, enabling US healthcare professionals to use it when submitting claims to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Building on its FDA De Novo classification and unique ability to assess pain in non-verbal dementia patients with musculoskeletal conditions, the company can now participate in the rapidly expanding RTM market, projected to be worth billions of dollars annually, and is adding an RTM reimbursement-based model to its existing SaaS offering to long-term care facilities. This dual-revenue approach, combined with long-dated US patent protection and partnerships covering more than 25,000 long-term care facilities and providers, materially strengthens PainChek’s growth prospects and competitive position in the US pain management and remote monitoring market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PCK) stock is a Hold with a A$0.26 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PainChek Ltd stock, see the AU:PCK Stock Forecast page.

PainChek schedules investor webinar to follow January quarterly update
Jan 28, 2026

PainChek Ltd, a global medtech company specialising in AI-driven pain assessment tools delivered via smartphones and tablets, has established a strong presence in aged care and related sectors, with regulatory approvals in multiple major markets and adoption in thousands of facilities worldwide. The company has announced it will host an investor webinar on 30 January 2026, following the release of its quarterly update and cash flow report, giving shareholders and investors an opportunity to hear the latest presentation from the CEO and ask questions, signalling continued engagement with the market as it advances the rollout and commercialisation of its pain assessment technology across clinical and home care settings.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:PCK) stock is a Hold with a A$0.26 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on PainChek Ltd stock, see the AU:PCK Stock Forecast page.

PainChek Director John Murray Allows 40,000 Options to Lapse Without Changing Shareholding
Dec 30, 2025

PainChek Limited has disclosed a change in the interests of director John Murray, who has allowed 40,000 options held indirectly through Nanjop Pty Ltd as trustee for the Murring Family Trust to lapse, resulting in no remaining options and no change to his total shareholding in the company. Following the lapse, Murray continues to hold 1,463,860 fully paid ordinary shares indirectly and 390,600 fully paid ordinary shares directly, a development that slightly alters the structure of his equity exposure by removing option-based incentives but leaves his direct and indirect share ownership unchanged, with no on-market trades reported and no closed-period trading issues raised.

PainChek Options Lapse, Simplifying Capital Structure
Dec 30, 2025

PainChek Ltd has announced the expiry and cessation of 15,686,749 listed options (ASX code PCKAY) that carried an exercise price of A$0.50 and were due to expire on 19 December 2025, with the options lapsing unexercised. The expiry slightly simplifies the company’s capital structure by removing a large block of out-of-the-money options from its issued securities, which may clarify the potential future dilution profile for existing shareholders but does not immediately affect PainChek’s current cash position or operations.

PainChek Seeks ASX Quotation for 24,775 Newly Issued Ordinary Shares
Dec 24, 2025

PainChek Ltd has applied to the ASX for quotation of 24,775 new fully paid ordinary shares following the exercise or conversion of existing options or other convertible securities, with an issue date of 23 December 2025. The relatively small share issuance modestly increases the company’s quoted capital base and reflects ongoing conversion of incentive or financing-related instruments, with limited immediate impact on its overall capital structure but indicating continued engagement from holders of convertible securities.

PainChek Confirms Director Share Issue Under Placement, Affirms Compliance and Disclosure
Dec 23, 2025

PainChek Ltd has issued 176,471 fully paid ordinary shares to directors under a previously announced placement to sophisticated, professional and other exempt investors, following shareholder approval at its 2025 Annual General Meeting. The company has confirmed that the shares were issued without a prospectus under the Corporations Act exemption, that it is up to date with its financial reporting and continuous disclosure obligations, and that there is no undisclosed price-sensitive information, providing assurance to the market and existing shareholders about regulatory compliance and transparency around the capital raising.

PainChek CEO Increases Shareholding Through AGM-Approved Placement
Dec 23, 2025

PainChek Limited has disclosed a change in the holdings of its managing director, Philip Daffas, who has increased his direct stake in the company through the issue of 147,059 fully paid ordinary shares, taking his total shareholding to 3,114,226 shares alongside existing options and performance rights. The new shares were issued as part of a placement previously approved by shareholders at the 2025 Annual General Meeting, signalling continued alignment between executive leadership and shareholders’ interests and underscoring board-level participation in the company’s capital-raising activities.

PainChek Seeks ASX Quotation for New Tranche of Ordinary Shares
Dec 23, 2025

PainChek Ltd has applied to the ASX for quotation of 176,471 new fully paid ordinary shares, issued on 22 December 2025 under a previously announced transaction. The modest share issuance expands the company’s quoted capital base and reflects ongoing use of equity to support its corporate or transactional activities, with limited immediate dilution but signalling continued capital management as PainChek advances its digital health technology in the market.

PainChek Ltd Announces Quotation of New Securities
Dec 12, 2025

PainChek Ltd has announced the quotation of new securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), with a total of 339 ordinary fully paid securities to be issued. This move is part of the company’s strategy to enhance its financial position and potentially expand its market presence, impacting its operations and offering potential benefits to stakeholders.

PainChek Ltd Advances with Successful AGM Resolutions
Nov 26, 2025

PainChek Ltd announced that all resolutions at its Annual General Meeting were passed, marking a significant step in its operational progress. The company’s AI-driven pain assessment tool continues to gain traction, with regulatory clearance across multiple countries and partnerships with numerous aged care facilities, enhancing its industry positioning and stakeholder engagement.

PainChek Ltd Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Nov 25, 2025

PainChek Ltd has announced the issuance of 276,747 fully paid ordinary shares, which will be quoted on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). This move is part of the company’s strategy to enhance its market presence and potentially increase its shareholder base, reflecting its ongoing efforts to expand its operations and strengthen its position in the healthcare technology sector.

PainChek Ltd Enhances Shareholder Engagement and Expands Market Reach
Nov 24, 2025

PainChek Ltd has announced that its shareholders will be able to view the Annual General Meeting presentations and listen to the meeting live online. This development highlights the company’s commitment to transparency and shareholder engagement. PainChek’s technology, which is already widely used in aged care facilities, is expanding into home care, signaling a strategic move to broaden its market reach and enhance its industry positioning.

PainChek Ltd Announces Quotation of New Securities on ASX
Nov 7, 2025

PainChek Ltd has announced the quotation of 218,495 fully paid ordinary securities on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), effective from November 5, 2025. This move reflects the company’s ongoing efforts to strengthen its market presence and provide liquidity to its shareholders, potentially impacting its financial position and stakeholder value positively.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 30, 2025