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FOS Capital Ltd (AU:FOS)
ASX:FOS
Australian Market

FOS Capital Ltd (FOS) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:FOS

FOS Capital Ltd

(Sydney:FOS)

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Neutral 62 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.16
▼(-34.40% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/28/26
The score is led by strong financial performance (rapid revenue growth, improving margins, and a solid balance sheet) but is pulled down materially by weak technicals (price below all key moving averages, negative MACD, and very low RSI). Valuation is mixed, with a supportive dividend yield but a negative P/E reducing confidence in earnings-based value.
Positive Factors
Revenue & Margin Momentum
The company delivered very strong top-line growth alongside a meaningful gross margin improvement, signaling sustainable demand and better cost control. Over a 2–6 month horizon, this combination supports durable earnings expansion if the company maintains pricing power and operational discipline.
Balance Sheet Strength
A moderate leverage profile and a strong equity ratio provide financial flexibility and resilience. This capital structure allows the company to invest in growth, withstand downturns, and preserve optionality for M&A or capex without excessive refinancing risk over the medium term.
Improved Free Cash Flow
Substantial FCF growth and nearly one-to-one conversion of net income to free cash flow indicate improving cash generation. Durable cash flow supports reinvestment, dividends, and deleveraging, enhancing long-term financial stability if the trend is sustained beyond one reporting cycle.
Negative Factors
Low Net Profit Margin
Despite revenue gains, a single-digit net margin limits the company's capacity to absorb cost shocks, invest for growth, and deliver strong shareholder returns. Persistently low margins point to structural cost pressures or weaker pricing power that could constrain durable profitability.
Inconsistent Operating Cash Flow
A low operating cash flow to net income ratio and historical negative OCF highlight inconsistency in turning accounting profits into cash. That raises structural risk for funding capex, dividends, or debt service unless cash conversion stabilizes over multiple quarters.
Earnings Volatility
Large negative EPS growth reflects volatile or declining reported earnings, which complicates forecasting and strategic planning. Earnings instability can undermine investor confidence and suggests the company may face structural profitability or one-off issue risks requiring resolution for durable improvement.

FOS Capital Ltd (FOS) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

FOS Capital Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFOS Capital Ltd, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes commercial luminaires, outdoor fittings, linear extruded lighting, and architectural lighting solutions in Australia and New Zealand. Its brand portfolio includes JSB Lighting, FORMA Lighting, VEKTA PROFILES, FREND Lighting, MEGABAY, and LIGHTING YOUNGKONG. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is based in Richmond, Australia. FOS Capital Limited is a subsidiary of SKM Investment Group Pty Ltd.
How the Company Makes MoneyFOS Capital Ltd generates revenue primarily through capital appreciation and management fees associated with its investment funds. The company earns a percentage of the profits from successful exits of its portfolio companies, including initial public offerings (IPOs) and mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Additionally, FOS charges management fees based on the assets under management (AUM) in its venture capital and private equity funds. Strategic partnerships with other investment firms and industry experts also bolster its investment strategy, allowing FOS to access exclusive deals and enhance its portfolio's performance, contributing to its overall earnings.

FOS Capital Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financial statements indicate strong momentum overall: income statement strength (74.3% revenue growth and improved margins) is tempered by still-low net margin (3.7%). Balance sheet is solid with manageable leverage (debt-to-equity 0.48) and a strong equity ratio (55%). Cash flow improved (42.4% free cash flow growth), but prior negative operating cash flow and a low operating cash flow to net income ratio (0.32) reduce confidence in consistency.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
FOS Capital Ltd has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a 74.3% increase in the latest year. Gross profit margin improved to 44.2%, indicating effective cost management. The net profit margin increased to 3.7%, showing enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins also improved, reflecting operational efficiency. However, the net profit margin remains relatively low, suggesting room for further profitability improvements.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio decreased to 0.48, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity is stable at 6.6%, reflecting consistent shareholder returns. The equity ratio stands at 55%, showing a strong equity base relative to total assets. While the balance sheet is solid, the company should continue to monitor its debt levels to maintain financial stability.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
FOS Capital Ltd achieved a 42.4% growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.32, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.99, suggesting efficient cash conversion. However, the company experienced negative operating cash flow in previous years, highlighting the need for consistent cash flow management.
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue23.82M25.49M24.53M17.12M13.51M8.16M
Gross Profit9.72M11.28M9.15M5.79M5.72M3.28M
EBITDA1.82M3.44M2.46M1.58M1.29M1.46M
Net Income-461.06K932.65K632.16K583.94K348.94K742.11K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets23.66M25.67M21.78M13.62M11.79M10.98M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.69M2.50M1.68M1.41M1.89M2.97M
Total Debt5.87M6.72M5.20M1.09M1.46M1.31M
Total Liabilities10.52M11.55M11.87M4.34M4.25M4.06M
Stockholders Equity13.14M14.12M9.91M9.29M7.54M6.92M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow185.33K2.29M949.96K-347.76K609.17K-902.38K
Operating Cash Flow221.31K2.30M1.01M-115.56K704.63K-902.38K
Investing Cash Flow-3.09M-4.32M-2.33M-830.45K-849.76K1.20M
Financing Cash Flow3.41M2.81M1.59M441.96K-831.95K2.02M

FOS Capital Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price0.25
Price Trends
50DMA
0.22
Negative
100DMA
0.24
Negative
200DMA
0.27
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.01
Positive
RSI
8.62
Positive
STOCH
24.54
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:FOS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 0.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.20, above the 50-day MA of 0.22, and below the 200-day MA of 0.27, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 8.62 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.54 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AU:FOS.

FOS Capital Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
63
Neutral
$10.79B15.437.44%2.01%2.89%-14.66%
62
Neutral
AU$10.65M-24.227.76%4.00%3.94%45.76%
46
Neutral
AU$6.12M-7.14-35.32%47.06%
43
Neutral
AU$4.15M-4.55%-39.95%-220.00%
38
Underperform
AU$10.00M-0.80-37.44%10.36%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:FOS
FOS Capital Ltd
0.16
-0.18
-53.03%
AU:RFT
Rectifier Technologies Ltd
AU:H2G
Tempo Australia Ltd
0.01
-0.01
-50.00%
AU:EGY
Energy Technologies Limited
0.02
-0.01
-37.50%

FOS Capital Ltd Corporate Events

FOS Capital Director Scrinis Lifts Indirect Stake via On‑Market Purchase
Feb 25, 2026

FOS Capital director Constantin Scrinis has increased his indirect shareholding in the company via an on-market purchase executed through SKM Investment Group Pty Ltd, in which he is a director and 37.5% equity holder. The transaction, which added 18,750 shares to his indirect interest for a consideration of $3,510, signals a modest vote of confidence from management in the company’s prospects while maintaining transparency for shareholders through timely disclosure of director dealings.

Scrinis’ interests are held through Boom Capital Pty Ltd and SKM Investment Group Pty Ltd, and following the trade his combined indirect holding via SKM rose to 12,041,384 shares, while his Boom Capital position remained unchanged. The move underscores ongoing alignment between the director and investors, as regulatory reporting of insider transactions enables the market to monitor shifts in board members’ exposure and assess potential implications for governance and capital market perceptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FOS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.22 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FOS Capital Ltd stock, see the AU:FOS Stock Forecast page.

FOS Capital Posts 1H26 Results Amid Tight Ownership and Modest Market Value
Feb 23, 2026

FOS Capital reported its first-half 2026 results against the backdrop of a modest $0.20 share price and a market value of $13.7 million, highlighting a balance sheet showing $1.7 million in cash and $1.8 million in net debt at the end of December 2025. The board, led by non-executive chair Sandy Beard and managing director Con Scrinis, oversees a tightly held register dominated by SKM Investment Group and Hancock & Gore, a structure that may influence strategic direction and capital management as the company navigates its next phase of growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FOS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.22 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FOS Capital Ltd stock, see the AU:FOS Stock Forecast page.

FOS Capital Releases Half-Year Financial Report for December 2025
Feb 23, 2026

FOS Capital Ltd has released its half-year report for the period ended 31 December 2025, providing shareholders with condensed financial statements and accompanying notes. The report includes profit or loss and comprehensive income, financial position, changes in equity, cash flows, and an independent auditor’s review, reflecting the company’s ongoing compliance with corporate reporting standards.

The publication of this half-year report offers investors and other stakeholders an updated view of FOS Capital’s financial performance and balance sheet strength. The inclusion of directors’ declarations and an auditor’s independence statement is intended to support transparency and governance, which can influence market confidence and inform capital allocation decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FOS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.22 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FOS Capital Ltd stock, see the AU:FOS Stock Forecast page.

FOS Capital Swings to Half-Year Loss as Revenue Falls and Restructuring Weighs
Feb 23, 2026

FOS Capital has reported a 11.9% drop in revenue to $12.37 million for the half year to 31 December 2025, with a statutory pre-tax loss of $807,437 and a net loss after tax of $605,931, reflecting pressures on its operations and margin profile. Underlying losses were minimal at $12,151 before tax and $9,467 after tax once one-off Aldrige restructuring costs were excluded, but the company’s net tangible asset backing fell to 8.4 cents per share from 9.9 cents and no interim dividend was declared, signalling a continued focus on balance sheet preservation and restructuring over immediate shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FOS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.22 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FOS Capital Ltd stock, see the AU:FOS Stock Forecast page.

FOS Capital sets investor webinar to present 1H FY26 results
Feb 22, 2026

FOS Capital has scheduled the release of its first-half FY26 results and will present them via an investor webinar on 24 February 2026 at 11 a.m. AEDT. The online session will give investors an opportunity to hear management’s commentary on the half-year performance and submit questions, underscoring the company’s efforts to maintain transparency and engagement with the market.

The webinar format reflects FOS Capital’s ongoing use of digital channels to communicate its financial and operational progress to shareholders. This approach may help broaden investor access to company updates and support market understanding of its position within the competitive LED lighting sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FOS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.22 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FOS Capital Ltd stock, see the AU:FOS Stock Forecast page.

FOS Capital Ceases to Be Substantial Holder in Anagenics After Dilution
Feb 9, 2026

FOS Capital Ltd has notified Anagenics Ltd that it has ceased to be a substantial holder in the company as of 9 February 2026. The change follows a dilution of FOS Capital’s voting interest caused by an increase in the number of shares issued by Anagenics, rather than a direct sale of its existing stake.

The cessation of substantial holder status may reduce FOS Capital’s influence over Anagenics’ shareholder decisions and governance matters. For Anagenics and its investors, the notice highlights a shift in the ownership structure driven by new share issuance, which can affect voting dynamics and potentially signal broader capital management initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FOS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.24 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FOS Capital Ltd stock, see the AU:FOS Stock Forecast page.

FOS Capital Targets Cost Savings and Acquisition Synergies Amid Softer 1H26 Trading
Dec 22, 2025

FOS Capital has reported softer trading for the first half of FY26, with expected sales of $12–12.2 million and EBITDA of $600,000–$700,000, down on the prior corresponding period, though modestly ahead of the second half of FY25. Despite longer lead times to secure orders, management anticipates a half-on-half sales improvement in the second half supported by a $9 million order book, $110 million quote pipeline and contributions from recent acquisitions, while a program of headcount reductions and import replacement is forecast to deliver $1.5 million in annualised cost savings and gross profit improvements from the third quarter of FY26. The turnaround of the Aldridge Traffic Systems business, acquired in June 2025, is progressing with a dedicated team now in place, $1 million of sales and orders secured, $5.5 million in active quotes, $0.7 million generated from non-core asset sales and profitability targeted by June 2026. Meanwhile, the integration of Glowing Structures, acquired in May 2025, has broadened FOS Capital’s lighting services capability and generated $2 million in orders and specifications since acquisition that are expected to support second-half sales, enhancing the group’s ability to convert design specifications into product revenue.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FOS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FOS Capital Ltd stock, see the AU:FOS Stock Forecast page.

FOS Capital Ltd Director Increases Shareholding
Dec 10, 2025

FOS Capital Ltd has announced a change in the director’s interest, specifically concerning Mr. Constantin Scrinis. Mr. Scrinis, who holds indirect interests through Boom Capital Pty Ltd and SKM Investment Group Pty Ltd, has increased his holdings by acquiring additional shares on the market. This acquisition reflects a strategic move by the director, potentially signaling confidence in the company’s future performance and stability, which could have implications for stakeholders and market perception.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:FOS) stock is a Buy with a A$0.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on FOS Capital Ltd stock, see the AU:FOS Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 28, 2026