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Nova Eye Medical (AU:EYE)
ASX:EYE

Nova Eye Medical (EYE) AI Stock Analysis

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AU:EYE

Nova Eye Medical

(Sydney:EYE)

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Neutral 52 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
AU$0.16
▲(20.77% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/03/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance: ongoing losses, declining gross margin, and negative operating/free cash flow. Technicals provide partial support with the price above major moving averages and a positive MACD, while valuation remains constrained by negative earnings (negative P/E) and no dividend yield data.
Positive Factors
Recurring Consumables & Devices
A product portfolio of surgical devices plus consumables creates recurring revenue potential tied to ongoing ophthalmic procedures. That structural demand supports predictable unit volumes and long-term customer relationships, strengthening durable revenue visibility for clinics and hospitals.
Revenue Growth Trend
Positive top-line growth indicates market adoption of products and expansion of sales reach. Sustained mid-teens revenue growth can support scale benefits, enable incremental investment in R&D and commercialization, and provide a platform to improve margins over a multi-quarter horizon.
Conservative Leverage
Low financial leverage gives the company flexibility to fund ongoing R&D, commercial expansion, or absorb operating losses without severe solvency pressure. Manageable debt reduces default risk and preserves optionality for strategic initiatives or partnerships.
Negative Factors
Negative Operating & Free Cash Flow
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow undermines the company's ability to self-fund operations, capex, and commercial scale-up. Over months this increases reliance on external financing or equity dilution, constraining strategic flexibility and raising execution risk.
Declining Gross Margins
A material drop in gross margin indicates rising cost of goods sold or pricing pressure, eroding the core profitability of product sales. Margin compression reduces leverage from revenue growth and makes achieving sustained operating profitability more difficult without structural cost or pricing remedies.
Negative Profitability & ROE
Ongoing negative net and EBIT margins plus negative ROE signal the business currently consumes shareholder capital rather than generating returns. This challenges investor economics and means management must both close margin gaps and convert revenue growth into positive returns to create long-term shareholder value.

Nova Eye Medical (EYE) vs. iShares MSCI Australia ETF (EWA)

Nova Eye Medical Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNova Eye Medical (EYE) is a medical technology company focused on developing innovative solutions for the diagnosis and treatment of eye diseases. Operating primarily in the ophthalmology sector, Nova Eye Medical specializes in advanced surgical devices, including their proprietary iTrack system for treating glaucoma and various retinal surgeries. The company aims to enhance the quality of eye care through its cutting-edge products, which are designed to improve patient outcomes and streamline surgical procedures.
How the Company Makes MoneyNova Eye Medical generates revenue through the sale of its medical devices and surgical products, primarily targeting ophthalmology clinics and hospitals. Key revenue streams include direct sales of surgical equipment, consumables related to its iTrack system, and ongoing sales of accessories and replacement parts. The company also benefits from strategic partnerships with healthcare providers and distributors that facilitate market access and enhance product visibility. Additionally, Nova Eye Medical may engage in research collaborations and licensing agreements, contributing to its earnings through royalties and shared revenues from new product developments.

Nova Eye Medical Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q2-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 27, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational momentum: record quarterly sales, robust U.S. growth (27% YoY; 40% CAGR over six halves), high procedure volumes (~17,000 last 12 months; ~180,000 total), industry-leading sales productivity (~$2M per rep) and improving operating cash flow (positive in December). At the same time, management flagged meaningful risks and constraints: small current market share (~3.9%), geographic volatility (notably China), dependence on the U.S., the need to carefully pace sales rep expansion to protect revenue per rep, working capital unpredictability, and a broad guidance range. On balance the call projects positive execution and growth momentum but acknowledges operational and market-access risks that could impact near-term predictability.
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth and Record Quarter
Record sales in the December quarter; last 12 months sales up ~24% year-over-year overall, with management reporting continuing momentum into January.
Robust U.S. Performance and High CAGR
United States revenue growth of ~27% over the last 12 months and a reported 40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the U.S. over the last six halves.
Procedure Volume and Market Traction
Run rate of ~17,000 procedures in the last 12 months and ~180,000 iTrack procedures performed globally to date, indicating sustained clinical adoption.
High Sales Productivity
Sales productivity reported as nearly $2.0 million revenue per sales rep in the last quarter, described as industry-leading and a key driver of operating results.
Regulatory Approvals, Reimbursement and Clinical Evidence
Device is FDA-approved and reimbursed by U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services; management emphasized robust registry/real-world clinical evidence with a first peer-reviewed registry paper expected imminently.
Improving Operating Cash Flow and Operational Capacity
Management reported positive operating cash flow in the December quarter and a month-over-month cash increase in December; capacity to scale production from an FDA-approved Fremont factory; improvement in cost of goods sold with volume.
Negative Updates
Small Current Market Share
Market share in the MIGS segment reported at ~3.9%, characterized by management as small and implying substantial upside but also current limitation in scale.
Geographic Volatility (China) Impacting Results
Growth outside the U.S. described as impacted by China being 'up and down,' contributing to variability in international revenue and a lower growth rate (non-U.S. growth ~24%).
Guidance Uncertainty and Broad Range
Management continues to provide a broad guidance range and emphasized difficulty in giving precise near-term guidance, implying some forecasting uncertainty.
Working Capital and Cash Predictability Risks
Significant investment in working capital (accounts receivable) during the quarter; management warned working capital movements are hard to predict and monthly cash flow is not guaranteed despite December improvement.
Business Concentration and Execution Risk
High reliance on the U.S. market and the need to carefully pace U.S. sales rep expansion to avoid diluting revenue per rep and harming the bottom line; scaling too quickly could hurt margins.
Market Perception and Investor Access Challenges
Management acknowledged perceived undervaluation of the stock and noted U.S. institutional investors face friction investing on the Australian exchange; company market value implied to be a headwind to attracting broader investor interest.
Company Guidance
Management reiterated that it remains on track to deliver its guidance (noting it is a deliberately broad range) and to deliver improving operating performance and cash flow—highlighting positive operating cash flow and higher cash in December despite a significant working‑capital build; key metrics cited include LTM sales growth of ~24% (3x industry), U.S. LTM growth ~27%, a U.S. CAGR of ~40% over the last six halves, six consecutive halves of growth with January momentum continuing, a current run‑rate of ~17,000 procedures in the last 12 months (180,000 procedures used historically), an estimated ~3.9% share of the MIGS market, sales per rep of nearly $2.0M, a stable unit price of ~USD1,000, and the broader market context of ~84M glaucoma patients, ~$4.3B in topical drug spend, 32M annual cataract procedures and ~1 in 5 cataract patients also having glaucoma.

Nova Eye Medical Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Revenue grew 12.09%, but profitability is weak with negative net profit and EBIT margins, and gross margin fell sharply (86.57% to 68.56%). Balance sheet leverage is low (debt-to-equity 0.16) but ROE is negative. Cash generation is a key concern with negative operating and free cash flows.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Nova Eye Medical has shown some revenue growth, with a 12.09% increase in the latest year. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit margins and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has decreased significantly from 86.57% to 68.56%, indicating rising costs or pricing pressures. Overall, the income statement reflects growth but with ongoing profitability challenges.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
The company's balance sheet shows a relatively low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.16, suggesting manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, indicating that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the company's equity position appears stable relative to its assets. Overall, the balance sheet is stable but lacks profitability.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Nova Eye Medical's cash flow statement reveals negative operating and free cash flows, with a slight decline in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating that the company is not generating cash from its operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is slightly above 1, suggesting some alignment between cash flow and accounting profits. Overall, the cash flow situation is concerning, with negative cash generation from operations.
BreakdownTTMJun 2025Jun 2024Jun 2023Jun 2022Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue33.05M29.27M23.32M17.02M13.38M13.39M
Gross Profit22.05M20.07M20.19M842.00K-765.00K1.77M
EBITDA-3.90M-8.98M-5.98M-14.65M-7.89M-3.67M
Net Income-7.03M-9.06M-8.79M-15.29M-7.50M-4.36M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets23.67M26.50M29.88M30.36M36.63M41.99M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments2.62M5.05M6.15M7.42M8.00M17.80M
Total Debt4.94M3.02M3.35M1.53M1.94M3.70M
Total Liabilities7.85M7.54M8.55M7.17M6.23M6.66M
Stockholders Equity15.82M18.97M21.33M23.19M30.40M35.34M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-5.19M-6.58M-8.31M-7.52M-10.27M-15.13M
Operating Cash Flow-4.85M-6.15M-7.86M-6.72M-4.68M-12.90M
Investing Cash Flow-477.00K-364.00K-325.00K-800.00K-4.58M-3.22M
Financing Cash Flow5.52M5.56M6.91M6.82M-402.00K-61.61M

Nova Eye Medical Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price0.13
Price Trends
50DMA
0.16
Negative
100DMA
0.15
Positive
200DMA
0.14
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Positive
RSI
42.87
Neutral
STOCH
>-0.01
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:EYE, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.17, below the 50-day MA of 0.16, and below the 200-day MA of 0.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of >-0.01 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AU:EYE.

Nova Eye Medical Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
52
Neutral
AU$45.57M-4.37-44.16%25.47%14.08%
51
Neutral
$7.86B-0.30-43.30%2.27%22.53%-2.21%
51
Neutral
AU$25.13M-2.58-103.74%14.84%39.64%
48
Neutral
AU$67.92M664.00-6.35%2.23%-263.16%
44
Neutral
AU$102.52M-5.34-31.98%34.20%-23.90%
44
Neutral
AU$163.57M-15.12-70.55%-257.32%
41
Neutral
AU$50.83M-3.10-128.19%-14.25%-22.83%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AU:EYE
Nova Eye Medical
0.16
0.05
47.62%
AU:CMP
Compumedics Limited
0.32
0.04
12.28%
AU:CYC
Cyclopharm Limited
0.83
-0.69
-45.36%
AU:MX1
Micro-X Ltd.
0.07
>-0.01
-7.14%
AU:EMV
EMvision Medical Devices Ltd.
1.76
-0.09
-4.86%
AU:CBL
Control Bionics Ltd.
0.06
0.01
33.33%

Nova Eye Medical Corporate Events

Nova Eye Medical Schedules Investor Webinar on Half-Year Results
Feb 25, 2026

Nova Eye Medical will host an investor webinar on 3 March 2026 at 11:30 am AEDT, led by managing director Tom Spurling, to discuss the company’s half-year financial results and operational performance. Shareholders and interested investors can register online and submit questions in advance or during the live Q&A, underscoring the company’s focus on investor engagement and transparency around its progress in the glaucoma treatment market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EYE) stock is a Hold with a A$0.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova Eye Medical stock, see the AU:EYE Stock Forecast page.

Nova Eye Sets Investor Briefing on Half-Year 2025 Results
Feb 25, 2026

Nova Eye Medical has released an investor presentation detailing its financial results for the six months ended 31 December 2025, ahead of a March 2026 briefing. The materials underscore the company’s focus on treatments for high intraocular pressure, highlighting the clinical need arising when eye drainage canals become blocked and fluid builds up, ultimately risking optic nerve damage and blindness, which frames the commercial relevance of its glaucoma solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EYE) stock is a Hold with a A$0.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova Eye Medical stock, see the AU:EYE Stock Forecast page.

Nova Eye lifts sales and narrows losses as glaucoma device growth outpaces market
Feb 25, 2026

Nova Eye Medical reported record half-year revenue of A$16.7 million for the six months to 31 December 2025, equivalent to US$11 million and up 31% in constant currency. Growth was led by the U.S. market and stronger performance in the rest of the world, driving last-twelve-month sales to A$32.2 million, roughly three times the estimated growth rate of the glaucoma surgical devices industry.

The company substantially improved its operating result, narrowing its EBITDA loss to A$2.2 million from A$4.2 million a year earlier on the back of higher gross margins, operating leverage and cost control. Nova Eye achieved positive EBITDA in December 2025, reaffirmed its FY26 guidance for sales of US$21–24 million excluding China, and signalled a path toward breakeven EBITDA in the second half of FY26, underscoring improving cash generation and operating momentum.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EYE) stock is a Hold with a A$0.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova Eye Medical stock, see the AU:EYE Stock Forecast page.

Nova Eye Medical Corrects Minor Governance Disclosure in Re-lodged Appendix 4G
Feb 11, 2026

Nova Eye Medical has re-lodged its FY25 Appendix 4G with the ASX after identifying a single omitted tick-box relating to the availability of corporate governance information on its website. The company stressed that the underlying information was already accessible online and that all other disclosures in the governance key remain accurate and complete, underscoring that this is a minor compliance correction rather than a change to operations or strategy.

The updated filing aligns Nova Eye with ASX corporate governance disclosure requirements and serves to tidy an administrative oversight in its original submission. For investors and regulators, the move signals continued attention to governance transparency and listing rule obligations, with no apparent implications for the company’s financial performance or day-to-day business activities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EYE) stock is a Hold with a A$0.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova Eye Medical stock, see the AU:EYE Stock Forecast page.

Nova Eye Medical Sets Investor Webinar to Present Quarterly Results and iTrack Update
Jan 29, 2026

Nova Eye Medical has scheduled an investor webinar for Monday, 2 February 2026 at 11:30 am AEDT, where Managing Director Tom Spurling will present the company’s quarterly results and provide an update on the iTrack Registry. Shareholders and interested investors can register online and will be able to submit questions ahead of time or participate in a live Q&A during the session, signalling the company’s continued engagement with its investor base and providing greater transparency around the performance and clinical uptake of its glaucoma treatment technologies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EYE) stock is a Hold with a A$0.19 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova Eye Medical stock, see the AU:EYE Stock Forecast page.

Nova Eye Medical Posts Record Quarter as iTrack Sales Surge
Jan 28, 2026

Nova Eye Medical reported record global sales of US$6.1 million for the December 2025 quarter, up 38% year-on-year and 25% on the previous quarter, driven by strong demand for its iTrack technology in the US and accelerating growth in other regions. Last-twelve-month sales reached about US$21 million, growing roughly three times faster than the broader industry, while operating cash outflow was A$1.0 million, including a A$1.2 million working capital investment to support rapid sales expansion; management expects operating cashflow to continue improving as utilisation of iTrack grows and new markets such as China begin commercialising the recently approved iTrack Advance during 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EYE) stock is a Hold with a A$0.19 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova Eye Medical stock, see the AU:EYE Stock Forecast page.

Nova Eye Reports Strong Real-World Outcomes From Global iTrack Glaucoma Registry
Jan 27, 2026

Nova Eye Medical has reported positive 12‑month clinical outcomes from its iTrack Global Data Registry, an independently managed, prospective real-world database now comprising more than 600 eyes contributed by 20 surgeons across 20 international sites. The latest annual statistical report shows 409 eyes with one-year follow-up, demonstrating an 85% success rate in reducing intraocular pressure in patients with baseline pressure above 18 mmHg and an average 40% reduction in medication use, alongside only six minor, self-resolving adverse events. These results compare favourably with other minimally invasive glaucoma surgery options and are expected to strengthen the clinical and safety case for canaloplasty with iTrack, supporting broader surgical adoption, payer engagement, market access, and future peer-reviewed publications that could further entrench Nova Eye’s position in the glaucoma treatment market.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EYE) stock is a Hold with a A$0.19 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova Eye Medical stock, see the AU:EYE Stock Forecast page.

Nova Eye sets investor webinar to discuss December 2025 sales and glaucoma focus
Jan 19, 2026

Nova Eye Medical has released a presentation ahead of an investor webinar scheduled to discuss its December 2025 sales results, outlining the clinical context in which it operates by highlighting how blocked ocular drainage canals cause fluid build-up, raised intraocular pressure and eventual optic nerve damage. While the document is largely introductory and framed by standard investment disclaimers, it underscores the company’s focus on addressing glaucoma-related pathology, reinforcing its positioning within the eye-care market as it prepares to update investors on trading performance and the commercial traction of its glaucoma-focused technologies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EYE) stock is a Sell with a A$0.15 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova Eye Medical stock, see the AU:EYE Stock Forecast page.

Nova Eye Medical Sets Investor Webinar to Deliver Half-Year Sales Update
Jan 14, 2026

Nova Eye Medical has scheduled an investor webinar for Monday, 19 January 2026 at 11:30 am AEDT, during which Managing Director Tom Spurling will present a sales update for the six months ended 31 December 2025 and take questions from participants. The event signals an effort by the glaucoma-focused device maker to increase transparency and engagement with shareholders ahead of releasing detailed half-year figures, offering investors an early window into trading performance and operational momentum in its key markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EYE) stock is a Hold with a A$0.17 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova Eye Medical stock, see the AU:EYE Stock Forecast page.

Nova Eye Posts Record Quarter as U.S. Glaucoma Device Sales Surge
Jan 11, 2026

Nova Eye Medical reported record global sales of US$6.1 million for the December 2025 quarter, up 38% year-on-year and 25% on the previous quarter, driving six‑month revenue to US$10.9 million, a 29% increase on the prior corresponding period. For the twelve months to 31 December 2025, group revenue reached about US$21 million, up 24% and roughly three times the estimated industry growth rate, underpinned by sustained strength in the US market—where iTrack Advance has delivered six consecutive halves of sales growth at an annualised rate of about 40%—and robust gains in Rest of World markets, while China lagged ahead of expected 2026 sales of iTrack Advance following its recent approval. These results, which are subject to audit, highlight Nova Eye’s accelerating market penetration in minimally invasive glaucoma surgery and reinforce its competitive positioning within the sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EYE) stock is a Hold with a A$0.13 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova Eye Medical stock, see the AU:EYE Stock Forecast page.

Nova Eye Medical to Quote New Securities on ASX
Dec 5, 2025

Nova Eye Medical Limited has announced the application for the quotation of 12,000 ordinary fully paid securities on the ASX, with an issue date of December 8, 2025. This move is part of an employee incentive scheme and signifies the company’s ongoing efforts to enhance its market presence and operational capabilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EYE) stock is a Hold with a A$0.13 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova Eye Medical stock, see the AU:EYE Stock Forecast page.

Nova Eye Medical’s AGM Resolutions Receive Strong Shareholder Support
Nov 27, 2025

Nova Eye Medical Limited held its Annual General Meeting on 27 November 2025, where all resolutions were carried with significant majorities. The resolutions included the adoption of the remuneration report, the re-election of directors Victor Previn and Daniel Webb, and the approval of an employee incentive plan. The approval of these resolutions reflects strong shareholder support and is likely to positively impact the company’s governance and operational strategies.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EYE) stock is a Hold with a A$0.13 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova Eye Medical stock, see the AU:EYE Stock Forecast page.

Nova Eye Medical Expands Global Footprint with iTrack™ Advance Success
Nov 27, 2025

Nova Eye Medical Limited has made significant strides in the glaucoma surgical devices market with its iTrack™ Advance, achieving a 26% increase in US sales and a record $29.3 million in revenue. The company is expanding globally, with regulatory approval in China and a strong presence in Germany, while enhancing production capabilities to meet growing demand.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:EYE) stock is a Hold with a A$0.13 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova Eye Medical stock, see the AU:EYE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 03, 2026