Carnavale Resources Limited (CAV) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$39.99M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): N/A
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): <0.01
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: -208.82%
• Country: AU
• Employees: N/A
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Industrial Materials
• EPS (TTM): >-0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 408,065,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: N/A
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: N/A
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.48
• Price to Sales (P/S): 99.42
• P/FCF Ratio: -5.99
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 46 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.10 ▼(-3.00% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/20/26

The score is primarily constrained by ongoing losses and sustained negative operating/free cash flow, alongside bearish technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). A debt-free balance sheet provides some stability, but valuation is difficult to support given negative earnings and no dividend data.

Positive Factors

Debt-free balance sheet

Zero financial leverage and sizeable equity relative to assets provide durable financial flexibility for an early-stage explorer. This reduces solvency and interest-rate risk, supports staying-funded for phased exploration, and improves ability to negotiate JV or farm-out terms without urgent debt pressure.

Exploration-focused business model

A focused strategy on early-stage exploration in Western Australia leverages a deep, enduring addressable market and established geological prospectivity. Technical services and drill-ready target generation are core capabilities that can create scalable value through discoveries, JV deals or asset monetisation over months to years.

Strong gross profit percentage

Near-100% gross margins on recorded revenue indicate low direct costs when revenue occurs, meaning any successful asset sale, farm-in or royalties can contribute disproportionately to covering overheads. This structural margin profile supports rapid operating leverage if revenue opportunities scale.

Negative Factors

Persistent negative operating and free cash flow

Sustained negative operating and free cash flow creates an enduring funding requirement for exploration programs. Continued cash burn increases dependency on equity raises or partner funding, elevating dilution risk and constraining the company’s ability to independently execute prolonged drilling campaigns or follow-up work.

Recurring and widening net losses

Chronic net losses that materially widened in FY2025 signal structural mismatch between operating spend and current revenue capacity. Persistent negative earnings erode equity, limit reinvestment without dilution, and increase execution risk for long-term exploration plans absent decisive monetisation or cost restructuring.

Very small, volatile revenue base

A structurally uncertain and minimal revenue base means performance depends on sporadic asset sales, farm-ins or discovery-triggered events. This volatility undermines predictability of cash flow, complicates multi-period planning, and raises the likelihood the company will need dilutive capital or partner deals to fund ongoing exploration.

Carnavale Resources Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Carnavale Resources Limited operates as a mineral exploration company in Australia. It explores for tin, lithium, cobalt, silver, nickel, gold, copper, and precious metal deposits. The company holds a 100% interest in the Grey Dam nickel sulphide project in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia; and 80% interest in the Kookynie gold project comprising 2 exploration licenses and 3 prospecting licenses located in Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia. It also holds an option to acquire 80% interest in the Ora Banda South gold project that covers an area of approximately 25 square kilometers located in Yilgarn Craton, Western Australia. Further, it is involved in investing activities. Carnavale Resources Limited was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Mount Hawthorn, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

Carnavale Resources Limited’s revenue model is primarily tied to the development and monetisation of mineral exploration assets rather than recurring operating revenue from producing mines. Based on publicly available information, specific, consistent revenue streams (e.g., sales revenue) are not clearly disclosed as a stable feature of the business; therefore, detailed revenue breakdowns cannot be stated without risking inaccuracy. null

Carnavale Resources Limited Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Balance sheet strength (no debt, sizeable equity) is a key positive, but it is outweighed by weak operating performance: recurring net losses, very small/volatile revenue, and persistently negative operating and free cash flow with a sharper FY2025 cash burn.

Income Statement

Revenue remains very small and volatile, with a decline in FY2025 (down 3.5% vs. FY2024) after prior growth off a low base. Profitability is weak: the company has reported net losses every year shown, and FY2025 losses widened materially (net margin roughly -1,994% vs. about -355% in FY2024), indicating costs are running far ahead of the current revenue scale. A positive is consistently strong gross profit percentage (near 100%), but operating losses dominate the earnings profile.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is conservatively positioned with zero debt across all periods provided and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0. Equity is sizeable relative to assets (FY2025 equity ~$10.2M vs. assets ~$10.4M), supporting financial flexibility. The key weakness is persistent negative returns on equity (FY2025 ROE about -29.7%), reflecting ongoing losses that erode shareholder value despite the low leverage.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is consistently negative: operating cash flow is below zero each year (FY2025 about -$0.39M), and free cash flow is also deeply negative (FY2025 about -$2.52M). Free cash flow deterioration is notable in FY2025 (declining sharply vs. FY2024), pointing to higher cash burn. While reported free cash flow exceeds net loss in magnitude in several years (suggesting non-cash charges are not the main driver), the overall pattern indicates sustained funding needs until operations scale or spending moderates.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	82.94K	151.84K	222.57K	55.22K	3.35K	10.63K
Gross Profit	82.94K	151.84K	222.57K	54.60K	2.88K	10.63K
EBITDA	-1.13M	-438.31K	-765.00K	-550.52K	-1.49M	-1.52M
Net Income	-3.64M	-3.03M	-791.14K	-452.61K	-1.41M	-1.49M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	16.64M	10.40M	11.49M	8.98M	9.49M	7.15M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	6.27M	777.60K	1.24M	919.18K	3.25M	3.53M
Total Debt	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Total Liabilities	242.97K	224.62K	338.19K	379.08K	527.02K	291.66K
Stockholders Equity	16.40M	10.18M	11.15M	8.60M	8.97M	6.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.58M	-2.52M	-2.62M	-2.33M	-3.25M	-2.50M
Operating Cash Flow	-466.56K	-388.29K	-351.10K	-416.25K	-501.98K	-541.43K
Investing Cash Flow	-1.86M	-2.13M	-2.26M	-1.91M	-2.75M	-1.95M
Financing Cash Flow	6.52M	2.05M	2.94M	-1.66K	2.97M	4.83M

Carnavale Resources Limited Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GUL	70 Outperform	AU$21.58M	5.36	9.44%	8.14%	―	-16.82%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
CAV	46 Neutral	AU$39.99M	-8.10	-27.39%	―	―	-208.82%
PXX	44 Neutral	AU$43.60M	-9.34	-8.15%	―	―	88.57%
AMD	43 Neutral	AU$17.08M	-1.42	-483.48%	―	―	51.48%
AUZ	40 Underperform	AU$28.71M	-8.50	-4.08%	―	―	74.51%

Carnavale Resources Limited Corporate Events

Carnavale Resources Files Half-Year Financial Report for December 2025

Carnavale Resources Limited has released its half-yearly financial report for the six months ended 31 December 2025, covering the company and its controlled entities. The report package includes the directors’ report, financial statements, notes, and the independent auditor’s review, providing stakeholders with an overview of the group’s financial position and performance for the period.

This disclosure ensures ongoing transparency and compliance with reporting requirements, offering investors and regulators insight into Carnavale’s interim financial health and corporate governance. While detailed figures are not included in the announcement text provided, the structured release indicates a standard, comprehensive half-year reporting process for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CAV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnavale Resources Limited stock, see the AU:CAV Stock Forecast page.

Carnavale Completes Key BFS Drilling at Kookynie Gold Project

Carnavale Resources has completed reverse circulation and diamond drilling programs at its Kookynie Gold Project, including metallurgical, geotechnical and infill resource drilling across the Swiftsure and Tiptoe proposed open pits. These programs aim to upgrade resources from Indicated to Measured, provide material for metallurgical variability and waste rock studies, and underpin a Bankable Feasibility Study that remains on schedule for completion by mid-2026.

The company will now move into the final stage of BFS-related drilling with production and monitoring water bores on the granted mining lease, while metallurgical testwork proceeds on large-diameter core to define gold recoveries and processing characteristics for potential toll treatment. Management highlighted that intensive fieldwork over the past five weeks, including three rigs operating continuously, has kept the feasibility timetable on track and is designed to deliver a de-risked, shovel-ready gold project by the third quarter of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CAV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnavale Resources Limited stock, see the AU:CAV Stock Forecast page.

Carnavale Reaffirms Kookynie Gold Project as Near-Term Production Asset

Carnavale Resources Limited has released an investor presentation highlighting its Kookynie Gold Project as a near-term production asset, underpinned by updated mineral resource estimates and economic studies. The company emphasises that the technical information has been validated by qualified Competent Persons and is consistent with prior ASX disclosures, reinforcing confidence in the project’s reported resources and study outcomes.

By reaffirming that no new material information has altered its earlier resource estimates or key assumptions, Carnavale signals stability in the project’s fundamentals for investors and stakeholders. The reliance on independent consultants and adherence to the Australasian Code for Reporting of Exploration Results, Mineral Resources and Ore Reserves supports the company’s regulatory compliance and strengthens its positioning in the Australian gold sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CAV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnavale Resources Limited stock, see the AU:CAV Stock Forecast page.

Carnavale Secures Kookynie Mining Lease as BFS Drilling Ramps Up

Carnavale Resources has secured the grant of Mining Lease M40/362, which covers all resources at its Kookynie Gold Project, including the high-grade Swiftsure and Tiptoe deposits. The new lease consolidates previous prospecting and exploration holdings and provides sufficient area for all key infrastructure required for project development, such as open pits, waste dumps and processing facilities.

The company is running an extensive drilling campaign with RC and diamond rigs on site to support a Bankable Feasibility Study, with an additional RC rig due shortly. Management expects the study to be completed in the third quarter of 2026, aiming to deliver a de-risked, high-grade, shovel-ready open pit development with potential underground extensions, marking a significant step towards production and enhancing the project’s development certainty for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CAV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnavale Resources Limited stock, see the AU:CAV Stock Forecast page.

Carnavale Starts Bankable Feasibility Drilling at Kookynie Gold Project

Carnavale Resources has commenced Bankable Feasibility Study drilling at its Kookynie Gold Project, 60km south of Leonora in Western Australia, marking a key step toward moving the high‑grade Swiftsure and Tiptoe deposits into development. The program, led by contractor Terra Drilling, includes metallurgical diamond drilling, geotechnical holes, and 9,000m of closely spaced infill reverse‑circulation drilling to upgrade resources from indicated to measured, reduce operational and geotechnical risk, and support open‑pit mine design and environmental approvals. Additional hydrogeological work and planned water bores for dewatering, alongside waste rock and metallurgical testwork with SRK Consulting, are aimed at finalising a significantly de‑risked, toll‑treatable, shovel‑ready open‑pit scenario by the third quarter of 2026, underscoring Carnavale’s push to fast‑track Kookynie into production and enhance its position in the Western Australian gold sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CAV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.12 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnavale Resources Limited stock, see the AU:CAV Stock Forecast page.

Carnavale Clears Key Native Title Hurdle at Kookynie Gold Project

Carnavale Resources reported that December quarter activities centred on the Kookynie Gold Project, where it achieved a key milestone by signing a Mining and Heritage Agreement with the Wangkatja Tjungula Aboriginal Corporation on behalf of the Nyalpa Pirniku native title holders. The agreement, which underpins the pending grant of mining lease M40/362, establishes a framework for collaboration on exploration, development and operations, including cultural heritage protection, compensation, employment and contracting opportunities, and royalty-linked payments for the traditional owners. An ethnographic and archaeological survey under the new heritage protocol found no culturally significant areas within the proposed open pits and Bankable Feasibility Study drilling zones, allowing Carnavale to advance its feasibility work and move the Kookynie project closer to production while reinforcing its social licence to operate.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:CAV) stock is a Hold with a A$0.14 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Carnavale Resources Limited stock, see the AU:CAV Stock Forecast page.