Australian Agricultural Projects Ltd. (AAP) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: AU$18.06M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 25.30K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.04
• Revenue Growth: 18.35%
• EPS Growth: 55.88%
• Country: AU
• Employees: 12
• Sector: Consumer Defensive
• Sector Strength: 42
• Industry: Agricultural Farm Products
• EPS (TTM): >-0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 368,603,700
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 64,980
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 25,299
• PEG Ratio: 0.20
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.08
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.97
• P/FCF Ratio: 22.85
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Neutral
• Price Target: AU$0.05 ▲(4.00% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 10/02/25
• Date: Action: Reiterated 10/02/25

The overall stock score of 69.5 reflects strong financial performance with improved profitability and reduced leverage. The technical analysis indicates a bullish trend, though the stock is currently overbought. Valuation is reasonable, with a P/E ratio suggesting fair pricing. The absence of earnings call data and corporate events does not impact the score.

Positive Factors

Reduced Leverage

A materially lower debt-to-equity ratio reduces interest burden and refinancing risk, increasing financial flexibility. Sustained lower leverage bolsters the company's ability to invest, absorb agricultural cycles, and pursue growth or pay down debt without stressing liquidity over the medium term.

High and Improving Profitability

Significant expansion in gross and net margins indicates improved cost control and/or pricing power in core products. Durable higher margins enhance cash flow potential, provide buffer against commodity price swings, and support sustainable reinvestment or shareholder returns over the coming months.

Free Cash Flow Growth

Substantial free cash flow growth demonstrates improving cash generation capability, which supports debt reduction, capital expenditure, or strategic investments. Persistent FCF growth strengthens balance sheet resilience and provides optionality for funding operations without heavy external financing.

Negative Factors

Weak Cash Conversion

A sharp decline in cash conversion suggests net income is less reflective of cash available, possibly from rising working capital or timing differences. Lower conversion reduces internal funding capacity, increasing reliance on external finance and raising operational and liquidity risk over the medium term.

Declining Revenue and EPS Trends

Material negative revenue and EPS trends point to weakening volumes, pricing, or product mix that undermine sustainable growth. Persistent declines constrain economies of scale, hamper reinvestment ability, and increase sensitivity to cost volatility unless management reverses the trend with structural initiatives.

Small Operational Scale

A very small employee base indicates limited operational scale and potential key-person concentration. This constrains growth capacity, diversification across crops or markets, and negotiating leverage with suppliers or buyers, increasing execution and operational risk over the medium term.

Australian Agricultural Projects Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Australian Agricultural Projects Ltd operates and manages olive groves in Boort, Victoria. It produces and sells extra virgin olive oil. The company was formerly known as Redisland Australia Limited and changed its name to Australian Agricultural Projects Ltd in February 2013. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Melbourne, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

AAP generates revenue primarily through the cultivation and sale of its agricultural produce, which includes a range of fruits and vegetables sold both domestically and internationally. The company benefits from long-term contracts and agreements with distributors and retailers, ensuring a steady stream of income. Additionally, AAP may engage in joint ventures or partnerships with other agricultural firms, which can provide access to new markets and technologies, further enhancing its revenue potential. Factors contributing to its earnings include efficient farm management practices, favorable growing conditions, and strong demand for high-quality produce.

Australian Agricultural Projects Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Australian Agricultural Projects Ltd. demonstrates strong revenue growth and improved profitability, with significant improvements in gross and net profit margins. The balance sheet shows reduced leverage and improved return on equity, enhancing financial stability. However, cash flow management presents some challenges, with a decrease in the free cash flow to net income ratio.

Income Statement

The company has shown consistent revenue growth over the years, with a notable 4.64% increase in the latest year. Gross profit margin has improved significantly from 24.17% in 2023 to 52.88% in 2025, indicating better cost management. Net profit margin also increased to 35.03%, reflecting strong profitability. However, the EBIT margin slightly decreased from 31.18% in 2024 to 30.35% in 2025, suggesting some operational challenges.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has improved from 0.92 in 2021 to 0.40 in 2025, indicating reduced leverage and better financial stability. Return on equity has increased to 12.77%, showing efficient use of equity to generate profits. However, the equity ratio is not provided, which limits the full assessment of financial stability.

Cash Flow

Free cash flow has grown by 57.83% in the latest year, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.28, suggesting a moderate conversion of income to cash. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio has decreased from 2.33 in 2024 to 0.78 in 2025, indicating potential cash flow management issues.

Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022	Jun 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.99M	5.60M	4.73M	3.35M	2.63M	3.32M
Gross Profit	1.53M	2.96M	2.48M	810.20K	30.04K	1.20M
EBITDA	1.52M	2.48M	2.14M	1.35M	606.74K	1.60M
Net Income	674.28K	1.96M	1.25M	534.65K	-246.59K	978.23K
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	22.10M	23.89M	22.38M	19.90M	18.21M	17.19M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	220.61K	450.57K	458.12K	229.34K	68.04K	134.94K
Total Debt	5.03M	6.06M	6.81M	6.86M	6.74M	6.95M
Total Liabilities	7.55M	8.54M	9.72M	10.31M	9.97M	9.67M
Stockholders Equity	14.55M	15.35M	12.66M	9.60M	8.24M	7.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-196.45K	728.39K	-729.58K	42.52K	786.04K	-1.25M
Operating Cash Flow	1.01M	929.85K	-312.58K	42.52K	892.89K	-1.05M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.20M	-194.64K	-351.00K	0.00	-676.44K	-250.51K
Financing Cash Flow	-7.26K	-742.76K	892.36K	118.78K	-283.35K	1.36M

Australian Agricultural Projects Ltd. Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.05
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AU:AAP, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.05, above the 50-day MA of 0.05, and above the 200-day MA of 0.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 74.35 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.15 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AU:AAP.

Australian Agricultural Projects Ltd. Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FRM	74 Outperform	AU$50.77M	1.39	28.29%	―	2.63%	―
AAP	70 Neutral	AU$18.06M	-5.78	4.51%	―	18.35%	55.88%
Sector *	62 Neutral	$20.33B	14.63	-3.31%	3.23%	1.93%	-12.26%
MCA	48 Neutral	AU$50.79M	-7.71	-0.43%	―	4.34%	―
DBF	45 Neutral	AU$74.99M	-1.37	-20.91%	29.49%	-16.73%	-343.82%
WOA	44 Neutral	AU$11.13M	-1.51	-90.33%	―	-94.79%	82.57%
WNR	37 Underperform	AU$1.23M	-0.83	-229.02%	―	17.85%	52.81%

Australian Agricultural Projects Ltd. Corporate Events

Australian Agricultural Projects Swings to Loss as Revenue Drops to Zero

Australian Agricultural Projects Limited reported its half-year results for the six months to 31 December 2025, showing a sharp deterioration in performance compared with the prior corresponding period. The company recorded no revenue from ordinary activities versus $1.61 million a year earlier and swung from a $489,000 profit to a $797,000 loss after tax.

Despite the loss, net tangible asset backing per share improved to 3.95 cents from 3.71 cents, suggesting some underlying balance-sheet resilience. The board again opted not to pay or declare any dividends, indicating a continued focus on preserving capital amid weaker trading conditions and the absence of operating revenue.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AAP) stock is a Buy with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Agricultural Projects Ltd. stock, see the AU:AAP Stock Forecast page.

Australian Agricultural Projects Flags Lower 2026 Harvest and Rising Water Costs

Australian Agricultural Projects reported that its olive orchard remains in good health, with dry and cooler-than-usual conditions enabling scheduled operations and an expanded maintenance program, including upgrades to harvester hydraulics. Flowering peaked later than normal, and while fruit set is strong in areas previously hit by frost, lower-than-expected fruit set in the Picual variety has management forecasting a 2026 harvest of 570,000 to 640,000 litres, consistent with an “off” year in the orchard’s biennial production cycle. Rising water prices and reduced storage levels at Lake Eildon are pressuring irrigation costs, with spot prices more than tripling year-on-year and the company still needing to secure additional water to ensure full irrigation, prompting a review of its future water strategy.

The most recent analyst rating on (AU:AAP) stock is a Buy with a A$0.06 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Australian Agricultural Projects Ltd. stock, see the AU:AAP Stock Forecast page.