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Aersale Corporation (ASLE)
NASDAQ:ASLE
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AerSale Corporation
(NASDAQ:ASLE)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(2.69% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is held back primarily by weak cash flow and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a strong balance sheet and a constructive earnings-call outlook pointing to improving profitability and 2026 growth initiatives, though valuation remains demanding given the high P/E and no dividend.
Positive Factors
Balance-sheet strength and low leverage
AerSale's very low leverage and sizable equity base provide lasting financial flexibility to fund inventory, capex, and capacity builds without forcing distressed asset sales. This structural strength supports execution of multi-year initiatives and absorbs revenue cyclicality in aerospace aftermarket demand.
Margin and profitability recovery
Sustained EBITDA and gross-margin improvement indicate operational leverage from mix and efficiency actions. If maintained, higher margins convert incremental revenue into durable free cash flow improvements and justify investments in recurring services such as MRO, leasing and AerSafe ahead of regulatory-driven demand.
Capacity builds and recurring revenue mix
Completed facility and capability expansions plus FAA approvals materially expand serviceable addressable market and enable more predictable recurring revenue from MRO, leasing and AerSafe. Structural shift toward recurring streams reduces reliance on volatile flight-equipment sales over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Weak and negative operating cash flow
Persistent negative operating and free cash flow erodes liquidity over time and forces reliance on revolver capacity or asset sales to fund inventory and growth. This weak cash conversion makes execution riskier for capital-intensive expansions even with improving EBITDA and pressures long-term balance-sheet resilience.
Revenue volatility from flight-equipment sales
Material swings in flight-equipment revenue create unpredictability in near- and medium-term top-line and working-capital needs. That volatility complicates planning for inventory monetization, capacity utilization and recurring-revenue ramp, leaving underlying profitability exposed to timing of large asset transactions.
Constrained feedstock market and low win rates
A constrained, competitive feedstock market limits AerSale's ability to replenish inventory at attractive economics, raising margin pressure and postponing growth. Lower win rates mean selective buying or higher prices, which can slow revenue cadence and extend monetization timelines for the large inventory base.
AerSale Corporation (ASLE) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$299.04M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)249.06K
Price to Earnings (P/E)39.1
Beta (1Y)1.12
Revenue Growth-1.64%
EPS Growth1966.67%
CountryUS
Employees636
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.16
Shares Outstanding47,241,615
10 Day Avg. Volume407,305
30 Day Avg. Volume249,065
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.61
Price to Book (P/B)0.79
Price to Sales (P/S)1.00
P/FCF Ratio-11.55
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.46
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.31
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.14
Enterprise Value/Ebitda12.46
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$8.00Price Target Upside26.38% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.64
Revenue Forecast (FY)$402.74M
AerSale Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAerSale Corporation provides aftermarket commercial aircraft, engines, and its parts to passenger and cargo airlines, leasing companies, original equipment manufacturers, and government and defense contractors, as well as maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) service providers worldwide. It operates in two segments, Asset Management Solutions and Technical Operations (TechOps). The Asset Management Solutions segment engages in the sale and lease of aircraft, engines, and airframes, as well as disassembly of these assets for component parts. The TechOps segment provides internal and third-party aviation services, including internally developed engineered solutions, heavy aircraft maintenance and modification, and component MRO, as well as end-of-life disassembly services. This segment also provides aircraft modifications, cargo and tanker conversions of aircraft, and aircraft storage; and MRO services for landing gear, thrust reversers, hydraulic systems, and other aircraft components. The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Coral Gables, Florida.
How the Company Makes MoneyAerSale generates revenue through several key streams, primarily by selling refurbished aircraft and aircraft components. The company acquires retired or surplus aircraft, disassembles them, and refurbishes the parts for resale. Additionally, AerSale earns income from providing aftermarket services, including parts logistics and technical support, which are essential for maintaining operational efficiency in the aviation industry. Partnerships with airlines and freight operators enhance its market reach and facilitate consistent revenue flow. The company's leasing services also contribute to its earnings, as they provide a steady income stream from customers who prefer to lease rather than purchase aircraft outright.
AerSale Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized substantial margin and profitability improvements (adjusted EBITDA up 38.2%, adjusted EPS up materially, gross margin expansion) and multiple capacity and capability wins (facility expansions, FAA landing gear approvals, strong AerSafe backlog). At the same time, the company faces notable near-term headwinds including total revenue volatility from flight equipment sales, a constrained/hypercompetitive feedstock market with low win rates, cash used for inventory purchases and relatively low cash on hand. Management outlines conservative feedstock purchasing, expects recurring revenue growth in 2026 from expanded MRO capacity, leasing and AerSafe demand, and highlights a strong inventory and revolver-backed liquidity to support execution. Overall, positives around profitability, margin recovery, and capacity buildup outweigh the operational and market challenges described.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Adjusted EBITDA and Profitability Improvement
Full year adjusted EBITDA grew to $46.1 million, an increase of $12.8 million or 38.2% year-over-year. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA increased $2.2 million or 17.1% to $15.2 million versus $13.0 million in Q4 2024, reflecting stronger operating performance and efficiency initiatives.
Improved Net Income and EPS
Adjusted net income for the year was $15.8 million (vs. $9.5 million prior year) and adjusted diluted EPS increased to $0.33 from $0.18, demonstrating material improvement in bottom-line results.
Revenue Growth Excluding Flight Equipment
Although total Q4 revenue declined 4.0% to $90.9 million and full year revenue declined 2.8% to $335.3 million, excluding volatile flight equipment sales Q4 revenue increased ~9.8% (company) and full year revenue rose 18.7%, driven by USM, leasing, component MROs and AerSafe sales.
TechOps Demand and Margin Expansion
Q4 TechOps revenue increased 10.7% to $34.0 million; full year TechOps revenue was $123.7 million. Gross margin improved to 25.6% for the year from 16.6% prior year, attributed to favorable mix and efficiency measures.
Strategic Facility and Capability Expansions
Multiple capacity projects advanced: Millington on-airport MRO is fully operational with heavy checks started; new 90,000 sq ft aerostructures facility moved into January 2026; pneumatic expansion construction complete (online expected by end of Q1); landing gear shop received FAA approval to overhaul 737 MAX and 787 gear, expanding serviceable product lines.
Strong Asset Position and Leasing Momentum
Year-end inventory position of roughly $364 million entering 2026, including ~$150 million ready for USM deployment and ~$118 million in whole assets. Leasing: 2 Boeing 757 freighters on lease and 5 converted 757s in inventory with 2 under letters of intent; company expects to deploy 757 freighters in 2026.
AerSafe Demand and FAA-Driven Opportunity
AerSafe sales increased as operators prepared for the FAA 2026 Fuel Quantity Indication System AD (FQISAD). Company reports AerSafe backlog already exceeds prior year sales and expects strong AerSafe revenue in 2026 ahead of the November 2026 compliance deadline.
Negative Updates
Total Revenue Decline and Flight Equipment Volatility
Total Q4 revenue was $90.9 million, down 4.0% year-over-year, and full year revenue fell 2.8% to $335.3 million, primarily due to fewer flight equipment sales (Q4 included $20.9M of flight equipment vs $31.0M prior-year quarter). Management acknowledges quarter-to-quarter volatility from flight equipment sales.
Constrained Feedstock Market and Reduced Win Rates
Feedstock environment described as hypercompetitive and constrained. Full year acquisitions were $99.6 million; Q4 acquisitions $15.4 million. Win rate materially declined: 4.8% in Q4 2025 versus 17.2% in Q4 2024; year win rate 6.0% in 2025 versus 8.6% in 2024, indicating disciplined but challenged buy-side activity.
Cash Flow Usage and Low Cash on Hand
Year-to-date cash used in operating activities was $23.0 million, primarily from feedstock purchases. Ending liquidity was $71.6 million but included only $4.4 million in cash and $67.2 million revolver availability, indicating reliance on revolver capacity for near-term liquidity.
Dependency on Regulatory Deadlines and OEM Dynamics
AerSafe demand is tied to FAA compliance timing (FQISAD) creating concentrated near-term demand ahead of Nov 2026. Company also references industry dynamics (GTF engine return timelines, MD11 grounding) that could shift demand/timing and introduce execution risk.
On-Premise & On-Airport Activity Weakness Year-to-Date
Full year TechOps revenue declined 4.5% to $123.7 million and Asset Management revenue declined ~1.8% to $211.6 million (driven by fewer flight equipment sales). On-airport MRO activity was lower year-over-year, necessitating facility strategy shifts (e.g., Roswell focus on storage/end-of-life).
Inventory Monetization and Market Timing Risk
Large inventory position (~$364M) provides opportunity but also exposes the company to monetization timing risk if feedstock prices, OEM production normalization, or buyer demand do not align with expectations; management expects to be selective which may limit near-term buy-side activity.
Company Guidance
The company guided to 2026 as a growth year for both top and bottom lines, driven by a shift to more recurring, predictable revenue (filling on‑airport MRO capacity, growing USM sales, expanding the lease pool and AerSafe sales ahead of the FAA Nov‑2026 FQISAD deadline) and by contributions from three capacity expansions (90,000 sq. ft. aerostructures facility moved in Jan 2026, pneumatic expansion coming online by end‑Q1, and a fully operational Millington heavy‑check line) that management says will likely exceed the previously communicated ~ $50 million of incremental annualized opportunity; they also expect to deploy all Boeing 757 P2F conversions in 2026 (2 on lease, 5 in inventory, two under letters of intent). Guidance was framed off a 2025 base of $335.3M total revenue (‑2.8% YoY; +18.7% ex‑flight equipment), $90.9M Q4 revenue (included $20.9M of flight equipment), Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $15.2M (+17.1% YoY) and FY adjusted EBITDA of $46.1M (+38.2% YoY), with TechOps gross margin improved to 25.6% (vs. 16.6% prior) and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.33; liquidity entering 2026 was $71.6M (cash $4.4M, $67.2M revolver availability on a $180M facility expandable by $20M) and inventory roughly $364M (≈$150M ready for USM, ≈$118M whole assets). On capital deployment, management will remain disciplined on feedstock (2025 acquisitions $99.6M, Q4 $15.4M) citing a constrained market and low win rates (Q4 win rate 4.8%, 2025 year 6% vs. 8.6% in 2024), and expects steady, incremental improvements in revenue and profitability as new streams ramp and efficiency initiatives continue.AerSale Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Mixed fundamentals: a strong, low-leverage balance sheet supports resilience, but revenue and profitability have been volatile and cash generation is the key weakness with operating cash flow and free cash flow negative in recent years (including 2025).Income Statement
Revenue has been volatile, including a sharp decline in 2025 (annual) after modest growth in 2024 and a larger drop in 2023. Profitability has also been inconsistent: strong margins in 2021–2022, a loss in 2023, then a return to modest profitability in 2024–2025 with low net margins. Gross margin has held up reasonably (~30% in 2024–2025), but operating profitability looks pressured, highlighted by weak/negative EBITDA in 2025.52
Neutral
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is a clear strength. Leverage is low, with debt-to-equity remaining modest (about 0.08 in 2025, down from ~0.17 in 2024), and equity is sizeable relative to assets. Returns on equity are positive again in 2024–2025 but remain low versus the stronger 2021–2022 period, indicating the company is not currently converting its solid capital base into high earnings.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is the weakest area. Operating cash flow swung from strongly positive in 2021 to near-breakeven/negative in 2022 and deeply negative in 2023, and it remained negative in 2025 despite positive net income—suggesting earnings quality and/or working-capital volatility. Free cash flow has been consistently negative from 2022 through 2025, which increases reliance on liquidity or financing if sustained.34
Negative
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 335.29M | 345.07M | 334.50M | 408.54M | 340.44M |
| Gross Profit | 105.77M | 103.94M | 92.42M | 151.39M | 119.39M |
| EBITDA | 35.12M | 26.16M | 48.00K | 66.89M | 69.66M |
| Net Income | 8.57M | 5.85M | -5.56M | 43.86M | 36.12M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 640.47M | 604.72M | 553.94M | 531.58M | 487.49M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 4.38M | 4.70M | 5.87M | 147.19M | 130.19M |
| Total Debt | 34.78M | 75.97M | 66.53M | 32.71M | 0.00 |
| Total Liabilities | 216.04M | 149.10M | 108.92M | 86.60M | 78.61M |
| Stockholders Equity | 424.43M | 455.62M | 445.01M | 444.98M | 408.88M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -29.05M | -17.85M | -185.51M | -15.71M | 75.19M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -22.97M | 11.18M | -174.15M | -113.00K | 79.08M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.86M | -16.13M | 3.09M | 41.37M | 13.20M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 26.51M | 3.77M | 29.74M | -24.26M | 8.59M |
AerSale Corporation Technical Analysis
Negative
6.33
Price Trends
7.31
Negative
7.07
Negative
7.14
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.32
Positive
29.60
Positive
15.13
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ASLE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.09, below the 50-day MA of 7.31, and below the 200-day MA of 7.14, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.32 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.60 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.13 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ASLE.
AerSale Corporation Risk Analysis
AerSale Corporation disclosed 41 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. AerSale Corporation reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
AerSale Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
53 Neutral | $878.78M | 14.47 | 8.62% | ― | 4.27% | 28.47% | |
52 Neutral | $299.04M | 39.13 | 2.06% | ― | -1.64% | 1966.67% | |
47 Neutral | $250.03M | -6.36 | 6.23% | ― | ― | ― | |
45 Neutral | $764.60M | -7.87 | -27.87% | ― | 1.77% | -1964.48% | |
44 Neutral | $111.64M | -0.37 | 110.96% | ― | -8.51% | 82.15% |
* Industrials Sector Average
ASLE
AerSale Corporation
6.33
-1.88
-22.90%
SNCY
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16.44
3.30
25.11%
ULCC
Frontier Group Holdings
3.33
-2.63
-44.13%
FLYX
flyExclusive
2.65
-0.55
-17.19%
SRFM
Surf Air Mobility, Inc.
1.45
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-64.02%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.