AutoNation (AN) Risk Analysis

We are involved, and will continue to be involved, in numerous legal proceedings arising out of the conduct of our business, including litigation with customers, wage and hour and other employment-related lawsuits, and actions brought by governmental authorities. Some of these lawsuits purport or may be determined to be class or collective actions and seek substantial damages or injunctive relief, or both, and some may remain unresolved for several years. The results of these matters cannot be predicted with certainty, and an unfavorable resolution of one or more of these matters could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, financial condition, cash flows, and prospects.

Most vehicle manufacturers from time to time establish various marketing and sales incentive programs designed to spur consumer demand for their vehicles, particularly during periods of excess supply and/or in a flat or declining new vehicle sales market. These programs impact our operations, particularly our sales of new vehicles. Since these programs are often not announced in advance, they can be difficult to plan for when ordering inventory. Furthermore, manufacturers may modify and discontinue these marketing and incentive programs from time to time, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and cash flows. In prior years, our new vehicle unit volume and new vehicle gross profit on a per vehicle retailed basis were adversely impacted by certain manufacturers' disruptive marketing and sales incentive programs based upon store-level growth targets established by those manufacturers (commonly referred to as "stair-step" incentive programs), which result in multi-tier pricing and adversely impact our ability to compete with other dealers. If those manufacturers continue to use such incentive programs or if other manufacturers adopt similar incentive programs, our operating results could be adversely impacted.

Concerns over the long-term impacts of climate change have led and will continue to lead to governmental initiatives aimed to mitigate those impacts. Consumers may also change their behavior as a result of these concerns. We will need to respond to new laws and regulations as well as consumer preferences resulting from climate change concerns which may affect vehicle manufacturers' ability to produce cost effective vehicles. Laws and regulations enacted that directly or indirectly affect vehicle manufacturers (through an increase in the cost of production or their ability to produce satisfactory products) or our business (through an impact on our inventory availability, cost of sales, operations, or demand for the products we sell) could materially adversely impact our business, results of operations, financial condition, cash flow, and prospects. In addition, vehicle manufacturers are subject to government-mandated fuel economy and greenhouse gas, or GHG, emission standards, which continue to change and become more stringent over time. Significant increases in fuel economy requirements or new federal or state restrictions on emissions of carbon dioxide that may be imposed on vehicles and automobile fuels could adversely affect demand for vehicles, annual miles driven, or the products we sell.

We believe that many factors affect sales of new and used vehicles and automotive retailers' gross profit margins in the United States and in our particular geographic markets, including the economy, fuel prices, credit availability, interest rates, consumer confidence, consumer shopping preferences and the success of third-party online and mobile sales platforms, the level of personal discretionary spending, labor force participation and unemployment rates, the state of housing markets, vehicle production levels and capacity, auto emission and fuel economy standards, the rate of inflation, currency exchange rates, tariffs, manufacturer incentives (and consumers' reaction to such offers), intense industry competition, the prospects of war, other international conflicts or terrorist attacks, global pandemics, severe weather events, product quality, affordability and innovation, the number of consumers whose vehicle leases are expiring, the length of consumer loans on existing vehicles, and the rise of ride-sharing applications. Changes in interest rates can significantly impact new and used vehicle sales and vehicle affordability due to the direct relationship between interest rates and monthly loan payments, a critical factor for many vehicle buyers, and the impact interest rates have on customers' borrowing capacity and disposable income. Sales of certain vehicles, particularly trucks and sport utility vehicles that historically have provided us with higher gross profit per vehicle retailed, are sensitive to fuel prices and the level of construction activity. In addition, rapid changes in fuel prices can cause shifts in consumer preferences which are difficult to accommodate given the long lead-time of inventory acquisition. The imposition of new tariffs, quotas, duties, or other restrictions or limitations could increase prices for vehicles and/or parts imported into the United States and adversely impact demand for such vehicles and/or parts. Our vehicle sales, service, and collision businesses could also be adversely affected by changes in the automotive industry driven by new technologies, distribution channels, or products, including ride-sharing applications, subscription services, autonomous and electric vehicles, and accident avoidance technology. Approximately 16.0 million, 15.6 million, and 13.9 million new vehicles, including retail and fleet vehicles, were sold in the United States in 2024, 2023, and 2022, respectively. Our performance may differ from the performance of the automotive retail industry due to particular economic conditions and other factors in the geographic markets in which we operate. Economic conditions and the other factors described above may also materially adversely impact our sales of parts and automotive repair and maintenance services and automotive finance and insurance products and our ability to approve/provide financing to customers.

Our stores are concentrated in states and regions in the United States, including primarily Florida, California, and Texas, in which actual or threatened natural disasters and severe weather events (such as hailstorms, hurricanes, earthquakes, fires, tornadoes, snowstorms, and landslides) may disrupt our store operations, which may adversely impact our business, results of operations, financial condition, and cash flows. The effects of climate change may serve as a risk multiplier increasing the frequency, severity, and duration of natural disasters and adverse weather events that may affect our business operations. In addition to business interruption, the automotive retail business is subject to substantial risk of property loss due to the significant concentration of property values at store locations. We cannot assure you that we will not be exposed to uninsured or underinsured losses that could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations, or cash flows. In addition, natural disasters and adverse weather events, including the effects of climate change, may adversely impact new vehicle production and the global automotive supply chain, which in turn could materially adversely impact our business, results of operations, financial conditions, and cash flows.

Our business is dependent upon the efficient operation of our information systems. We rely on our information systems to manage, among other things, our sales, inventory, and service efforts, including through our digital channels, and customer information, as well as to prepare our consolidated financial and operating data. The failure of our information systems to perform as designed or the failure to maintain and enhance or protect the integrity of these systems could disrupt our business operations, impact sales and results of operations, expose us to customer or third-party claims, or result in adverse publicity. Additionally, we collect, process, and retain sensitive and confidential customer information in the normal course of our business. Our facilities and systems could experience security breaches, malicious software (malware, ransomware, and viruses), lost or misplaced data, programming errors, human errors, acts of vandalism, or other events. For example, several well-known retailers and other large companies have disclosed high-profile security breaches involving sophisticated and highly targeted attacks on their company's infrastructure or their customers' data, which were not recognized or detected until after such retailers had been affected notwithstanding the preventative measures such retailers had in place. In addition, we rely on third-party service providers to support our operations, including CDK, the provider of our DMS. These third-party service providers, with whom we may share data, are subject to similar risks as we are relating to cybersecurity, privacy violations, business interruption, and systems, as well as employee failures. We do not have control over third-party service providers' business operations, governance, or compliance systems, practices, and procedures, and management of multiple third-party service providers increases our operational complexity. Third-parties' services have been and may in the future be interrupted, disabled, sub-standard, or otherwise deficient, including as a result of a cybersecurity incident, and we have in the past incurred, and may in the future incur, additional costs as a result, including disruption to our information systems and business operations and reputational harm. For example, in June 2024, we were notified by CDK that it was experiencing a cyber incident impacting its systems, including the systems necessary to support our DMS, which supports our dealership operations, including our sales, service, inventory, customer relationship management, and accounting functions ("Core Functions"). The incident resulted in outages of our DMS and Core Functions (the "CDK outage"), causing disruption and adverse impacts to our business, including our productivity. Access to our DMS and Core Functions was restored by the end of June 2024. Certain ancillary systems and integrations, such as those that help automate ordering, scheduling, payment, sales, and reporting processes, were restored by the end of July with residual impacts resolved by the end of the third quarter 2024. See "Results of Operations" in Part II, Item 7 of this Form 10-K for a discussion on the financial impact of the CDK outage to our 2024 results. Future cybersecurity incidents or other events involving our information technology systems or those of our third-party service providers may disrupt our information systems and business operations, result in the theft, misappropriation, loss, or other unauthorized disclosure of confidential information, damage our reputation, expose us to the risks of litigation and liability, or reduce our customers' willingness to do business with us, which could adversely affect our business, financial condition, and results of operations.

The success of our stores is dependent on vehicle manufacturers in several key respects. First, we rely exclusively on the various vehicle manufacturers for our new vehicle inventory. Our ability to sell new vehicles is dependent on a vehicle manufacturer's ability to design, manufacture, and allocate to our stores an attractive, high-quality, and desirable product mix at the right time and at the right price in order to satisfy customer demand. Second, manufacturers generally support their franchisees by providing direct financial assistance in various areas, including, among others, floorplan assistance and advertising assistance. Third, manufacturers provide product warranties and, in some cases, service contracts to customers. Our stores perform warranty and service contract work for vehicles under manufacturer product warranties and service contracts, and direct bill the manufacturer as opposed to invoicing the store customer. At any particular time, we have significant receivables from manufacturers for warranty and service work performed for customers. In addition, we rely on manufacturers to varying extents for original equipment manufactured replacement parts, training, product brochures and point of sale materials, and other items for our stores. Our business, results of operations, and financial condition could be materially adversely affected as a result of any event that has a material adverse effect on the vehicle manufacturers or distributors that are our primary franchisors. The core brands of vehicles that we sell, representing approximately 88% of the new vehicles that we sold in 2024, are manufactured by Toyota (including Lexus), Honda, Ford, General Motors, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, and Volkswagen (including Audi and Porsche). As a result, we are subject to a concentration of risk, and our business could be materially adversely impacted by the financial distress, including bankruptcy, of or other adverse event related to a major vehicle manufacturer or related lender or supplier. Vehicle manufacturers may be adversely impacted by economic downturns or recessions, significant declines in the sales of their new vehicles, natural disasters, increases in interest rates, adverse fluctuations in currency exchange rates, declines in their credit ratings, liquidity concerns, labor strikes or similar disruptions (including within their major suppliers), supply shortages or rising raw material costs, rising employee benefit costs, vehicle recall campaigns, adverse publicity that may reduce consumer demand for their products (including due to bankruptcy), product defects, litigation, poor product mix or unappealing vehicle design, governmental laws and regulations (including fuel economy requirements), tariffs and other import product restrictions, the rise of ride-sharing applications, or other adverse events. These and other risks could materially adversely affect any manufacturer and impact its ability to profitably design, market, produce, or distribute new vehicles, which in turn could materially adversely affect our ability to obtain or finance our desired new vehicle inventories, our ability to take advantage of manufacturer financial assistance programs, our ability to collect in full or on a timely basis our manufacturer warranty and other receivables, and/or our ability to obtain other goods and services provided by the impacted manufacturer. In addition, vehicle recall campaigns could materially adversely affect our business, results of operations, and financial condition. Our business could be materially adversely impacted by the bankruptcy of a major vehicle manufacturer or related lender. For example, (i) a manufacturer in bankruptcy could attempt to terminate all or certain of our franchises, in which case we may not receive adequate compensation for our franchises, (ii) consumer demand for such manufacturer's products could be materially adversely affected, (iii) a lender in bankruptcy could attempt to terminate our floorplan financing and demand repayment of any amounts outstanding, (iv) we may be unable to arrange financing for our customers for their vehicle purchases and leases through such lender, in which case we would be required to seek financing with alternate financing sources, which may be difficult to obtain on similar terms, if at all, (v) we may be unable to collect some or all of our significant receivables that are due from such manufacturer or lender, and we may be subject to preference claims relating to payments made by such manufacturer or lender prior to bankruptcy, and (vi) such manufacturer may be relieved of its indemnification obligations with respect to product liability claims. Additionally, any such bankruptcy may result in us being required to incur impairment charges with respect to the inventory, fixed assets, right-of-use assets, and intangible assets related to certain franchises, which could adversely impact our results of operations and financial condition. Further, we rely on various third-party suppliers for key products and services to support our business, including CDK, the provider of our dealer management system ("DMS"), which supports our dealership operations, including our sales, service, inventory, customer relationship management, and accounting functions. Outsourcing to third-party suppliers reduces our direct control over the services rendered, as we do not have control over their business operations, governance, or compliance systems, practices, and procedures. If our suppliers fail to deliver products or services on a timely basis and at reasonable prices for any reason, or if the third-parties' services are interrupted, disabled, sub-standard, or otherwise deficient, as they have been or may be in the future, our business continuity or recovery programs may not be sufficient to mitigate the harm that may result, and we could face difficulties operating our business and suffer reputational harm, and our results of operations and financial condition could be adversely impacted. See the risk factor, "We depend on information technology for our business and are subject to risks related to cybersecurity threats and incidents, including those affecting our third-party suppliers and other service providers. A failure of our information systems or any cybersecurity breaches or unauthorized disclosure of confidential information could have a material adverse effect on our business, disrupt our business, and adversely impact our reputation and results of operations" below for additional information on the CDK cyber incident in June 2024.

We have made significant investments to build an excellent reputation as an automotive retailer in the United States in a highly competitive industry. All of our Domestic and Import stores are unified under the AutoNation retail brand. We believe that our continued success will depend on our ability to maintain and enhance the value of our retail brands across all of our sales channels, including in the communities in which we operate, and to attract consumers to our own digital channels. Consumers are increasingly shopping for new and used vehicles, automotive repair and maintenance services, and other automotive products and services online and through mobile applications, including through third-party online and mobile sales platforms, with which we compete. We have invested and will continue to invest substantial resources on offering our vehicles and services through digital channels. There can be no assurance that our initiatives and investments in digital channels will be successful or result in improved financial performance. We face increased competition for market share from other automotive retailers and sales platforms, including electric vehicle manufacturers who sell directly to consumers, that have also invested substantial resources on offering their vehicles and services through digital channels. If we fail to preserve the value of our retail brands, maintain our reputation, or attract consumers to our own digital channels, our business could be adversely impacted. In addition, an isolated business incident at a single store could materially adversely affect our other stores, retail brands, reputation, and sales channels, particularly if such incident results in adverse publicity, governmental investigations, or litigation. The growing use of social media by consumers increases the speed and extent that information and opinions can be shared, and negative posts or comments on social media about AutoNation or any of our stores could materially damage our retail brands, reputation, and sales channels.