American Equity Investment Life (AEL) Risk Analysis

Our financial results are based on assumptions and estimates that depend on many factors, none of which are certain. Our actual results may differ significantly from our expectations. As a result, our decisions on products and pricing, calculation of account balances within our financial statements, and the amounts of regulatory and rating agency capital we expect to need to hold may be wrong. Our estimates are based on complex analysis and interpretation of large quantities of data, involve sophisticated judgment and expertise, and are imprecise. We may change our assumptions and estimates from time to time as a result of engaging more sophisticated methods, obtaining additional information, or due to discovery of errors. Our expected pricing expenses and benefits are based on assumptions about how long a policy will remain in force and about mortality and longevity. Our actual experience may differ from our pricing assumptions. We may have to change our actuarial estimates, accelerate amortization of deferred acquisition expenses, increase our policy benefit reserves, or pay higher benefits than we projected. For example, persistency lower than our assumptions may require us to accelerate the amortization of expenses we deferred in connection with the acquisition of the policy. Certain financial statement balances depend on estimates and assumptions including the calculations of policyholder benefit reserves, market risk benefits, derivatives and embedded derivatives, deferred policy acquisition costs and deferred sales inducements, the fair value of investments and valuation allowances. The calculations we use to estimate these balances are complex. We make significant assumptions such as expected index credits, the age when a policyholder may begin to utilize the lifetime income benefit rider, the number of policyholders that may not utilize the lifetime income benefit rider, expected policyholder behavior including expected lapse rates, discount rates and the expected cost of annual call options, any of which may change over time and may be inaccurate. We use judgement in making estimates and assumptions, and our accuracy depends on multiple factors, including market conditions, interest rates, credit conditions, spreads, liquidity, and observable market data. Our investment returns or cash flows may also differ from our expectations. In addition, our risk management policies, procedures, and models may be imperfect or may not be sufficiently comprehensive. As a result, they may not identify or adequately protect us from every risk to which we are exposed.

Interest rate increases or decreases could harm our investment spread, or the difference between yields on our invested assets and our cost of money, the fair value of our investments and the reported value of stockholders' equity and the unrealized gain or loss position of our investment portfolio. Rising interest rates may lead customers to surrender their policies, increasing our net cash outflows, requiring us to sell assets at a disadvantaged price and accelerating our amortization of deferred policy acquisition costs and deferred sales inducements. Our sales may decline during such times, or we may increase annuity crediting rates but be unable to generate the investment returns or spreads we desire. At other times, low interest rates may harm our ability to offer attractive rates and benefits to customers while maintaining profitability; this may reduce our fixed index annuity sales, as consumers seek potentially higher returns. A decrease in the equity markets, a decrease in interest rates, or an increase in volatility in either, may require us to increase our reserves related to benefit guarantees. Our hedge program designed to mitigate these risks may not be entirely effective to offset the changes in the carrying value of the guarantees due to, among other things, the time lag between changes in their values and corresponding changes in the hedge positions, high levels of volatility in the equity markets and derivatives markets, extreme swings in interest rates, contract holder behavior different than expected, a strategic decision to adjust the hedging strategy in reaction to extreme market conditions or inconsistencies between economic and statutory reserving guidelines and divergence between the performance of the underlying funds and hedging indices.

On July 4, 2023, we entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the "Merger Agreement") with Brookfield Reinsurance Ltd. ("Brookfield Reinsurance"), Arches Merger Sub, Inc. ("Merger Sub"), a wholly owned subsidiary of Brookfield Reinsurance, and solely for the purposes set forth in the Merger Agreement, Brookfield Asset Management Ltd. ("BAM"), pursuant to which Merger Sub will merge with and into the Company (the "Merger") with the Company surviving the Merger and becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary of Brookfield Reinsurance. The completion of the Merger remains subject to the satisfaction of certain customary closing conditions, including among others (i) the receipt of required regulatory approvals from certain insurance regulators, (ii) approvals from the New York Stock Exchange and Toronto Stock Exchange for listing of the BAM Class A Stock to be issued as stock consideration in the Merger, (iii) the absence of any injunction or restraint otherwise preventing consummation of the Merger, (iv) the absence of a Company Material Adverse Effect (as defined in the Merger Agreement) and (v) the absence of the imposition of a Burdensome Condition (as defined in the Merger Agreement) by any regulator as part of the regulatory approval process. The obligation of each party to consummate the Merger is also conditioned on the accuracy of the other party's representations and warranties (subject to certain materiality exceptions) and the other party's compliance, in all material respects, with its covenants and agreements under the Merger Agreement. Therefore, the Merger may not be completed or may not be completed as timely as expected.