Adial Pharmaceuticals (ADIL) Risk Analysis

Our business and future success depends upon our ability to obtain regulatory approval of and then successfully commercialize our lead investigational product candidate, AD04 and other product candidates. AD04 is in clinical stage development. To date, our main focus and the investment of a significant portion of our efforts and financial resources has been in the development of our lead investigational product candidate, AD04, for which we recently completed the ONWARD Phase 3 clinical trial with 302 patients in Scandinavia and Central and Eastern Europe, which targets the reduction of risk drinking (heavy drinking of alcohol) in subjects that possess selected genetics of the serotonin transporter and/or 5-HT3 receptor gene. We currently plan to conduct two additional Phase 3 clinical trials, as well as one or more supportive clinical studies. Even though we are pursuing a registration pathway based on specific FDA input and guidance and the EMA precedents and guidance, there are many uncertainties known and unknown that may affect the outcome of the trial. These include adequate patient enrollment, adequate supply of our product candidate, potential changes in the regulatory landscape, and the results of the trial being successful. AD04 currently, as well as any potential future product candidates, will require additional clinical and non-clinical development, regulatory review and approval in multiple jurisdictions, substantial investment, access to sufficient commercial manufacturing capacity and significant marketing efforts before we can generate any revenue from product sales. We expect AD04 will need at least two additional Phase 3 trials (including the ONWARD Phase 3 trial we recently completed in Scandinavia and Central and Eastern Europe) and one or more supportive clinical studies to gain approval in either the U.S. or outside the US for AUD and additional development activity, including, without limitation, clinical trials, in order to seek approval for the use of AD04 to treat any other indications (e.g., such as opioid use disorder, gambling addiction, smoking cessation, and other drug addictions). In addition, because AD04 is our most advanced product candidate and there is limited history information on long-term effects of our proposed dosage, there is always a chance of developmental delays or regulatory issues or other problems arising, with our development plans and depending on their magnitude, our business could be significantly harmed. In any case, the costs associated with completion of our two additional Phase 3 trials, commercialization of AD04, and the costs of developing AD04 for use in other indications are significant and will require obtaining funding, possibly through equity sales, before AD04 generates revenue. Our future success depends heavily on our ability to successfully manufacture, develop, obtain regulatory approval, and commercialize AD04, which may never occur. We currently generate no revenues from our product candidate, and we may never be able to develop or commercialize a marketable drug.

Our prospects are significantly dependent upon the UVA LVG License. The UVA LVG License grants us exclusive, worldwide rights to certain existing patents and related intellectual property that covers AD04, currently our only product candidate. If we breach the terms of the UVA LVG License, including any failure to make minimum royalty payments required thereunder or failure to reach certain developmental milestones and completion of deadlines, including, submitting an NDA by December 31, 2024 and commencing commercialization of an FDA approved product by December 31, 2025, or other factors, including but not limited to, the failure to comply with material terms of the Agreement, the licensor has the right to terminate the license. If we were to lose or otherwise be unable to maintain this license on acceptable terms, or find that it is necessary or appropriate to secure new licenses from other third parties, we would not be able to market our products and technology, which would likely require us to cease our current operations which would have an immediate material adverse effect on our business, operating results and financial condition. As a result of our ongoing business and clinical development planning for AD04, we are approaching UVA LVG to extend the milestones referenced in our license agreement with UVA.

Despite the implementation of security measures, our internal computer systems and those of our future CROs and other contractors and consultants are vulnerable to damage from computer viruses and unauthorized access. While we have not experienced any such material system failure or security breach to date, if such an event were to occur and cause interruptions in our operations, it could result in a material disruption of our development programs and our business operations. For example, the loss of clinical trial data from completed or future clinical trials could result in delays in our regulatory approval efforts and significantly increase our costs to recover or reproduce the data. Since we rely on third parties for research and development of AD04 and expect do so for future product candidates and for the manufacture of product candidates and to conduct clinical trials, similar events relating to their computer systems could also have a material adverse effect on our business. To the extent that any disruption or security breach were to result in a loss of, or damage to, our data or applications, or inappropriate disclosure of confidential or proprietary information, we could incur liability and the further development and commercialization of product candidates could be delayed.

We rely on our information technology systems and infrastructure to process transactions, summarize results and manage our business, including maintaining client and supplier information. In the ordinary course of business, we collect, store and transmit large amounts of confidential information, and it is critical that we do so in a secure manner to maintain the confidentiality and integrity of such confidential information. Additionally, we utilize third parties, including cloud providers, to store, transfer and process data. Our information technology systems, as well as the systems of our suppliers and other partners, whose systems we do not control, are vulnerable to outages and an increasing risk of continually evolving deliberate intrusions to gain access to company sensitive information. The size and complexity of our information technology systems, and those of our third-party vendors with whom we contract, make such systems potentially vulnerable to service interruptions and security breaches from inadvertent or intentional actions by our employees, partners or vendors, from attacks by malicious third parties, or from intentional or accidental physical damage to our systems infrastructure maintained by us or by third parties. Data security incidents and breaches by employees and others with or without permitted access to our systems pose a risk that sensitive data may be exposed to unauthorized persons or to the public. Maintaining the secrecy of this confidential, proprietary, or trade secret information is important to our competitive business position. While we have taken steps to protect such information and invested in information technology, there can be no assurance that our efforts will prevent service interruptions or security breaches in our systems or the unauthorized or inadvertent wrongful use or disclosure of confidential information that could adversely affect our business operations or result in the loss, dissemination, or misuse of critical or sensitive information. A cyber-attack or other significant disruption involving our information technology systems, or those of our vendors, suppliers and other partners, could also result in disruptions in critical systems, corruption or loss of data and theft of data, funds or intellectual property. A breach of our security measures or the accidental loss, inadvertent disclosure, unapproved dissemination, misappropriation or misuse of trade secrets, proprietary information, or other confidential information, whether as a result of theft, hacking, fraud, trickery or other forms of deception, or for any other reason, could enable others to produce competing products, use our proprietary technology or information, or adversely affect our business or financial condition. We may be unable to prevent outages or security breaches in our systems. We remain potentially vulnerable to additional known or yet unknown threats as, in some instances, we, our suppliers and our other partners may be unaware of an incident or its magnitude and effects. We also face the risk that we expose our vendors or partners to cybersecurity attacks. Any or all of the foregoing could adversely affect our results of operations and our business reputation.

Obtaining and maintaining regulatory approval of product candidates in one jurisdiction does not guarantee that we will be able to obtain or maintain regulatory approval in any other jurisdiction, and a failure or delay in obtaining regulatory approval in one jurisdiction may have a negative effect on the regulatory approval process in others. For example, even if the FDA grants marketing approval of a product candidate, comparable regulatory authorities in foreign jurisdictions must also approve the manufacturing, marketing and promotion of the product candidate in those countries. Approval procedures vary among jurisdictions and can involve requirements and administrative review periods different from, and greater than, those in the United States, including additional preclinical studies or clinical trials, as clinical studies conducted in one jurisdiction may not be accepted by or sufficient for regulatory authorities in other jurisdictions. In many jurisdictions outside the United States, a product candidate must be approved for reimbursement before it can be approved for sale in that jurisdiction. In some cases, the price that we intend to charge for our candidate products is also subject to approval. Additionally, some foreign jurisdictions require participation of subjects from their country in the Phase 3 trials in order to gain approval in their country. We intend to also submit marketing applications in other jurisdictions, including European countries. Regulatory authorities in jurisdictions outside of the United States have requirements for approval of product candidates with which we must comply prior to marketing in those jurisdictions. Obtaining foreign regulatory approvals and compliance with foreign regulatory requirements could result in significant delays, difficulties and costs for us and could delay or prevent the introduction of our products in certain countries. If we fail to comply with the regulatory requirements in international markets and/or fail to receive applicable marketing approvals, our target market will be reduced and our ability to realize the full market potential of AD04 or any future product candidates will be harmed. Even if we receive regulatory approval of AD04 or any future product candidates, we will be subject to ongoing regulatory obligations, such as post market surveillance and current good manufacturing practice ("GMP") requirements, and continued regulatory review, which may result in significant additional expense. We may also be subject to penalties if we fail to comply with regulatory requirements or experience unanticipated problems with product candidates. In addition, third parties on whom we rely must comply with regulatory requirements, and any non-compliance on their part may negatively impact our business, assuming we obtain regulatory authorization at all. Any regulatory approvals that we receive for product candidates will require surveillance to monitor the safety and efficacy of the product candidate. The FDA may also require a Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy ("REMS") program in order to approve product candidates, which could entail requirements for a medication guide, physician communication plans or additional elements to ensure safe use, such as restricted distribution methods, patient registries and other risk minimization tools. The FDA could also require a boxed warning, sometimes referred to as a Black Box Warning on the product label to identify a particular safety risk, which could affect commercial efforts to promote and sell the product. In addition, if the FDA or a comparable foreign regulatory authority approves product candidates, the manufacturing processes, labeling, packaging, distribution, adverse event reporting, storage, advertising, promotion, import, export and recordkeeping for product candidates will be subject to extensive and ongoing regulatory requirements. These requirements include submissions of safety and other post-marketing information and reports, registration, as well as continued compliance with current GMPs and current good clinical practices ("GCPs") for any clinical trials that we conduct post-approval. We are also subject to certain user fees imposed by the regulatory agencies. Later discovery of previously unknown problems with product candidates, including adverse events of unanticipated severity or frequency, or with our third-party manufacturers or manufacturing processes, or failure to comply with regulatory requirements, may result in, among other things: - restrictions on the marketing or manufacturing of product candidates, withdrawal of the product from the market, or product recalls;- fines, warning letters or holds on clinical trials;- refusal by the FDA to approve pending applications or supplements to approved applications filed by us or suspension or revocation of approvals;- product seizure or detention, or refusal to permit the import or export of product candidates; and - injunctions or the imposition of civil or criminal penalties. The FDA's and other regulatory authorities' policies may change, such as those required by the 21st Century Cures Act, and additional government regulations may be enacted that could prevent, limit or delay regulatory approval of AD04 or any future product candidates. In addition, it is unclear what changes, if any, the new presidential administration may bring. We cannot predict the likelihood, nature or extent of government regulation that may arise from future legislation or administrative action, either in the United States or abroad. If we are slow or unable to adapt to changes in existing requirements or the adoption of new requirements or policies, or if we are not able to maintain regulatory compliance, we may lose any marketing approval that we may have obtained and we may not achieve or sustain profitability.

We are exposed to the risk of employee fraud or other illegal activity by our employees, independent contractors, consultants, commercial partners and vendors. Misconduct by these parties could include intentional, reckless and/or negligent conduct that fails to: (i) comply with the laws of the FDA and other similar foreign regulatory bodies; (ii) provide true, complete and accurate information to the FDA and other similar foreign regulatory bodies; (iii) comply with manufacturing standards we have established; (iv) comply with healthcare fraud and abuse laws in the United States and similar foreign fraudulent misconduct laws; or (v) report financial information or data accurately or to disclose unauthorized activities to us. Any such misconduct or noncompliance could negatively affect the FDA's review of our regulatory submission, including delaying approval or disallowance of certain information to support the submission, and/or delay a federal or state healthcare program's or a commercial insurer's determination regarding the availability of future reimbursement for product candidates. If we obtain FDA approval of any product candidates and begin commercializing those products in the United States, our potential exposure under such laws will increase significantly, and our costs associated with compliance with such laws are also likely to increase. These laws may impact, among other things, our current activities with principal investigators and research patients, as well as proposed and future sales, marketing and education programs. In particular, the promotion, sales and marketing of healthcare items and services, as well as certain business arrangements in the healthcare industry, are subject to extensive laws designed to prevent fraud, kickbacks, self-dealing and other abusive practices. These laws and regulations may restrict or prohibit a wide range of pricing, discounting, marketing and promotion, structuring and commission(s), certain customer incentive programs and other business arrangements generally. Activities subject to these laws also involve the improper use of information obtained in the course of patient recruitment for clinical trials. The laws that may affect our ability to operate or may require us to modify certain programs include, but are not limited to: - the federal Anti-Kickback Statute, which prohibits, among other things, knowingly and willfully soliciting, receiving, offering or paying any remuneration (including any kickback, bribe, or rebate), directly or indirectly, overtly or covertly, in cash or in kind, to induce, or in return for, either the referral of an individual, or the purchase, lease, order or recommendation of any good, facility, item or service for which payment may be made, in whole or in part, under a federal healthcare program, such as the Medicare and Medicaid programs;- federal civil and criminal false claims laws and civil monetary penalty laws, which prohibit, among other things, individuals or entities from knowingly presenting, or causing to be presented, claims for payment or approval from Medicare, Medicaid, or other third-party payors (both governmental and private) that are false or fraudulent or knowingly making a false statement to improperly avoid, decrease or conceal an obligation to pay money to a federal or state healthcare program or private payor;- the federal Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act of 1996 ("HIPAA"), which, among other things, created new federal criminal statutes that prohibit knowingly and willfully executing, or attempting to execute, a scheme to defraud any healthcare benefit program or obtain, by means of false or fraudulent pretenses, representations, or promises, any of the money or property owned by, or under the custody or control of, any healthcare benefit program, regardless of the payor (e.g., public or private) and knowingly and willfully falsifying, concealing or covering up by any trick or device a material fact or making any materially false statements in connection with the delivery of, or payment for, healthcare benefits, items or services relating to healthcare matters;- HIPAA, as amended by the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act of 2009 ("HITECH"), and their respective implementing regulations, which, among other things, impose requirements on certain covered healthcare providers, health plans, and healthcare clearinghouses as well as their respective business associates that perform services for them that involve the use, or disclosure of, individually identifiable health information, relating to the privacy, security and transmission of such individually identifiable health information;- the federal Physician Payment Sunshine Act, created under the Healthcare Reform Act (as defined herein), and its implementing regulations, which require certain manufacturers of drugs, devices, biologicals and medical supplies for which payment is available under Medicare, Medicaid or the Children's Health Insurance Program (with certain exceptions) to report annually to the United States Department of Health and Human Services ("HHS"), information related to payments or other transfers of value made to physicians (defined to include doctors, dentists, optometrists, podiatrists and chiropractors) and teaching hospitals, as well as ownership and investment interests held by physicians and their immediate family members;- federal consumer protection and unfair competition laws, which broadly regulate marketplace activities and activities that potentially harm consumers; and - the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (the "FCPA") and similar antibribery and anticorruption laws in other countries that, for example, prevent improper payments or transfers of anything of value to foreign officials for the purpose of gaining commercial advantage, obtaining or retaining business, or to enhancing clinical trials. Additionally, we are subject to state and foreign equivalents of each of the healthcare laws described above, among others, some of which may be broader in scope and may apply regardless of the payor. It is not always possible to identify and deter employee misconduct, and the precautions we take to detect and prevent inappropriate conduct may not be effective in controlling unknown or unmanaged risks or losses or in protecting us from governmental investigations or other actions or lawsuits stemming from a failure to be in compliance with such laws or regulations. Efforts to ensure that our business arrangements will comply with applicable healthcare laws may involve substantial costs. It is possible that governmental and enforcement authorities will conclude that our business practices may not comply with current or future statutes, regulations or case law interpreting applicable fraud and abuse or other healthcare laws and regulations. If any such actions are instituted against us, and we are not successful in defending ourselves or asserting our rights, those actions could have a significant impact on our business, including the imposition of civil, criminal and administrative penalties, damages, disgorgement, monetary fines, possible exclusion from participation in Medicare, Medicaid and other federal healthcare programs, contractual damages, reputational harm, diminished profits and future earnings, and curtailment of our operations, any of which could adversely affect our ability to operate our business and our results of operations. In addition, the approval and commercialization of any product candidates outside the United States will also likely subject us to foreign equivalents of the healthcare laws mentioned above, among other foreign laws.

Our commercialization strategy for certain product candidates may depend on our ability to enter into agreements with collaborators to obtain assistance and funding for the development and potential commercialization of these investigational product candidates. Supporting diligence activities conducted by potential collaborators and negotiating the financial and other terms of a collaboration agreement are long and complex processes with uncertain results. Even if we are successful in entering into one or more collaboration agreements, collaborations may involve greater uncertainty for us, as we have less control over certain aspects of our collaborative programs than we do over our proprietary development and commercialization programs. Our collaborators could delay or terminate their agreements, and our product candidates subject to collaborative arrangements may never be successfully developed or commercialized. Further, our future collaborators may develop alternative products or pursue alternative technologies either on their own or in collaboration with others, including our competitors, and the priorities or focus of our collaborators may shift such that our programs receive less attention or fewer resources than we would like, or they may be terminated altogether. Any such actions by our collaborators may adversely affect our business prospects and ability to earn revenues. In addition, we could have disputes with our future collaborators, such as the interpretation of terms in our agreements. Any such disagreements could lead to delays in the development or commercialization of any potential products or could result in time-consuming and expensive litigation or arbitration, which may not be resolved in our favor.

Even if the FDA approves our current product candidate, or any future product candidates we may develop or acquire, the products may not gain broad market acceptance among physicians, healthcare payers, patients, and the medical community. We have conducted our own research into the markets for our product candidates; however, we cannot guarantee market acceptance of our product candidates, if approved, and have somewhat limited information on which to estimate our anticipated level of sales. Product candidates, if approved, will require payers, healthcare providers and doctors to adopt our technology. Our industry is susceptible to rapid technological developments and there can be no assurance that we will be able to match any new technological advances. If we are unable to match the technological changes in the needs of our customers, the demand for our products will be reduced. Acceptance and use of any products we market, assuming market authorization approval at all, will depend upon a number of factors including: - perceptions by members of the health care community, including physicians, about the safety and effectiveness of our products;- limitation on use or warnings required by FDA in our product labeling;- cost-effectiveness of our products relative to competing products;- convenience and ease of administration;- potential advantages of alternative treatment methods;- availability of reimbursement for our products from government or other healthcare payers; and - effectiveness of marketing and distribution efforts by us and our licensees and distributors, if any. Because we expect virtually all of our product revenues for the foreseeable future to be generated from sales of AD04, if approved, the failure of this product to find market acceptance would substantially harm our business and would adversely affect our revenue.

We currently have no products for sale and we cannot guarantee that we will ever have any drug products approved for sale. We and our product candidate are subject to extensive regulation by the FDA, and comparable regulatory authorities in other countries governing, among other things, research, testing, clinical trials, manufacturing, labeling, promotion, marketing, adverse event reporting and recordkeeping of our product candidates. Until, and unless, we receive approval from the FDA or other regulatory authorities for our product candidates, we cannot commercialize product candidates and will not have product revenues. Even if we successfully develop products, achieve regulatory approval, and then commercialize our products, we may be unable to generate revenue for many years, if at all. If we are unable to generate revenue, we will not become profitable, and we may be unable to continue our operations. For the foreseeable future, we will have to fund all of our operations from equity and debt offerings, cash on hand and grants. In addition, changes may occur that would consume our available capital at a faster pace than expected, including changes in and progress of our development activities, acquisitions of additional candidates and changes in regulation. Moreover, preclinical and clinical testing may not start or be completed as we forecast and may not achieve the desired results. Therefore, we expect to seek additional sources of funding, such as additional financing, grant funding or partner or collaborator funding, which additional sources of funding may not be available on favorable terms, if at all.

Continuing concerns over U.S. health care reform legislation and energy costs, geopolitical issues, including those in Eastern Europe, the availability and cost of credit and government stimulus programs in the United States and other countries have contributed to increased volatility and diminished expectations for the global economy. These factors, combined with low business and consumer confidence and high unemployment, precipitated an economic slowdown and recession and stagnant economy for more than a decade. Additionally, political changes in the U.S. and elsewhere in the world have created a level of uncertainty in the markets. If the economic climate does not improve or deteriorate, our business, as well as the financial condition of our suppliers and our third-party payors, could be adversely affected, resulting in a negative impact on our business, financial condition and results of operations. In addition, the global macroeconomic environment could be negatively affected by, among other things, COVID-19 or other pandemics or epidemics, instability in global economic markets, increased U.S. trade tariffs and trade disputes with other countries, instability in the global credit markets, supply chain weaknesses, instability in the geopolitical environment as a result of the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the war in the Middle East and other political tensions, and foreign governmental debt concerns. Such challenges have caused, and may continue to cause, uncertainty and instability in local economies and in global financial markets.