We derive most of our revenues from investment advisory and services fees, typically calculated as a percentage of the value of AUM on a specified date or as an average over a billing period. These fees vary based on the type of service, account size, and total assets managed for a client. Several factors can adversely affect our AUM and composition, including:
- Market Factors: Our AUM remain sensitive to global financial market volatility, such as the inflationary pressures and interest rate increases in 2022 and 2023, followed by interest rate decreases and renewed inflationary concerns in 2024. Continued global economic uncertainty may lead to market volatility, potentially reducing our revenues and net income. Interconnected global economies mean that instability in one region can impact others. Political, social, or economic instability, wars (e.g., Ukraine and the Middle East), terrorism, health crises (e.g., COVID-19), natural disasters, and other unforeseen events can significantly affect financial markets and our AUM, revenues, and net income. Market volatility and reduced margin financing availability can limit liquidity, making it difficult to sell certain securities at their true value. While liquidity was stable in 2024, future deterioration could adversely affect our AUM, revenues, and net income.
- Geographic and Geopolitical Factors: Our clients and our AUM are geographically diverse as approximately 27% of our clients' domicile is outside the US (primarily Europe, Asia, and the Americas) and approximately 38% of our AUM by Investment Services are non-US. Local or regional events including political, social, or economic instability, wars (e.g., Ukraine and the Middle East), challenges to currently recognized international borders (such as those made by China toward Taiwan), terrorism, health crises (e.g., COVID-19), natural disasters, and other unforeseen events can significantly affect our clients' demand for our services, local and regional financial markets, and our AUM, revenues, and net income. Specifically, our clients and the investment funds we manage in mainland China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong, as well as any of our investment services with a regional investment focus in this geographic area, may be significantly impacted by a China/Taiwan conflict. The disputed status of Taiwan and the possibility of military conflict with China is a significant geopolitical risk that could materially impact our business in Taiwan.
- Client Preferences: Clients can withdraw their assets at any time with short notice. Shifts in market dynamics and investment trends, such as a move towards less risky investments by defined benefit plan sponsors and a shift to lower-fee passive services, may reduce interest in our investment products. Loss or decrease in AUM reduces our advisory and services fees and revenues.
- Our Investment Performance: Our success in achieving investment returns that match or exceed those of similar asset classes and competing services is crucial for retaining clients and attracting new ones. If our investment performance is poor, either in absolute terms or compared to peers and benchmarks, clients may redeem their assets, and potential clients might choose other investment firms.
- Investing Trends: The fees we charge for our various investment products and services can vary widely. Our overall fee income changes as clients move their assets between accounts or products with different fee structures. For more details on our fee rates, see "Net Revenues" in Item 7).
- Service Changes: We might need to lower our fees, change our fee structures, or adjust the services we offer due to factors like new regulations, advancements in asset management technology (such as algorithmic strategies and new financial technologies), court rulings, and competitive pressures. Lowering our fees would decrease our revenue.
- Interest Rate Changes: Changes in interest rates, especially rapid and significant increases, can negatively impact investor interest in and the value of our fixed income and multi-asset investment portfolios.
A decrease in the value or amount of our AUM, an adverse mix shift in our AUM, or a reduction in our fee levels would negatively impact our investment advisory fees and revenues. Reduced revenues, without a corresponding decrease in expenses, would adversely affect our operating results.