Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Risk Analysis

Our products are complex and undergo quality testing as well as formal qualification by our customers. Our customers' testing procedures are limited to evaluating our products under likely and foreseeable failure scenarios and over varying amounts of time. For various reasons, such as the occurrence of performance problems that are unforeseeable in testing or that are detected only when products age or are operated under peak stress conditions, our products may fail to perform as expected long after customer acceptance. Failures could result from faulty components or design, problems in manufacturing or other unforeseen reasons. Any such failures could delay product shipments to our customers or result in a loss of customers. Our products are typically embedded in, or deployed in conjunction with, our customers' products, which incorporate a variety of components, modules and subsystems and may be expected to interoperate with modules produced by third parties. As a result, not all defects are immediately detectable and when problems occur, it may be difficult to identify the source of the problem. We face this risk because our products are widely deployed in many demanding environments and applications worldwide. In addition, we may in certain circumstances honor warranty claims after the warranty has expired or for problems not covered by warranty to maintain customer relationships. Any significant product failure could result in litigation, damages, repair costs and lost future sales of the affected product and other products, divert the attention of our engineering personnel from our product development efforts and cause significant customer relations problems, all of which would harm our business. Although we carry product liability insurance, this insurance may not adequately cover our costs arising from defects in our products or otherwise.

The continued services of our executive officers and other key engineering, sales, marketing, manufacturing and support personnel is essential to our success. For example, our ability to achieve new design wins depends upon the experience and expertise of our engineers. Any of our key employees, including our Chief Executive Officer, Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President and North America General Manager and Senior Vice President and Asia General Manager, may resign at any time. We do not have key person life insurance policies covering any of our employees. To implement our business plan, we also intend to hire additional employees in expanding areas of our business. Our ability to continue to attract and retain highly skilled employees is a critical factor in our success. Competition for highly skilled personnel is intense. We may not be successful in attracting, assimilating or retaining qualified personnel to satisfy our current or future needs. Our ability to develop, manufacture and sell our products, and thus our financial condition and results of operations, would be adversely affected if we are unable to retain existing personnel or hire additional qualified personnel.

We have a high fixed cost base due to our vertically integrated business model, including the fact that 2,879 of our employees as of December 31, 2024 were employed in manufacturing and research and development operations. We may not be able to adjust these fixed costs quickly to adapt to rapidly changing market conditions. Our gross profit and gross margin are greatly affected by our sales volume and volatility on a quarterly basis and the corresponding absorption of fixed manufacturing overhead expenses. In addition, because we are a vertically integrated manufacturer, insufficient demand for our products may subject us to the risk of high inventory carrying costs and increased inventory obsolescence. Given our vertical integration, the rate at which we turn inventory has historically been low when compared to our cost of sales. We do not expect this to change significantly in the future and believe that we will have to maintain a relatively high level of inventory compared to our cost of sales. As a result, we continue to expect to have a significant amount of working capital invested in inventory. We may be required to write down inventory costs in the future and our high inventory costs may have an adverse effect on our gross profits and our results of operations.

Investing in our common stock involves a high degree of risk. See Part I, Item 1A, Risk Factors, of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024 for a detailed discussion of the risk factors affecting our Company. As of June 30, 2025, there have been no material changes to those risk factors, except as described below.  Recently elevated geopolitical tensions, volatility and uncertainty with respect to international trade policies, including tariffs and export controls, may have a material adverse impact on our business, the markets in which we compete and the world economy. In recent months since April 2025, the United States and its trading partners have imposed, expanded and revised a wide range of tariffs, reciprocal tariffs, and other trade restrictions—often with minimal notice—disrupting global trade and affecting a wide spectrum of raw materials, components, and finished goods. U.S.-China trade tensions, in particular, have intensified, resulting in elevated tariff rates and signaling the potential for further measures, including those targeting the semiconductor sector. In mid-May, the U.S. administration issued an executive order suspending certain previously announced tariff increases on China and temporarily reinstating a lower baseline tariff for a 90-day period. As of early August, the 90-day suspension is approaching its end, and the U.S. has imposed a 20% temporary tariff on most imports from Taiwan, effective August 7, 2025. The U.S. remains engaged in active tariff negotiations with key trading partners, including China and Taiwan, though the final outcomes of these negotiations remain uncertain. Although we have not been significantly impacted by the increased tariffs imposed on China to date, the continuation, escalation, or expansion of tariffs and other trade barriers—as well as heightened geopolitical tensions and increased uncertainty regarding global trade and regulatory policy, particularly involving the United States, China and Taiwan—could adversely affect our business both directly and indirectly, including through impacts on consumer and business confidence, currency and interest rate volatility, commodity and equity markets, inflation, financing conditions, and broader international economic relations. These developments could materially and adversely affect our revenue, operations, financial condition, cost structure, competitiveness, supply chain logistics, product pricing and demand, and profitability, and could also amplify other risks described in our 2024 Form 10-K. Although we seek to mitigate the effects of these challenges through pricing adjustments, supply chain diversification, and operational efficiencies, we may not be able to fully offset increased costs or secure timely alternative sources. In addition, customers may resist price increases or seek alternative suppliers, which could adversely affect our sales volumes.

The Chinese economy differs from the economies of most developed countries in many respects, including the level of government involvement, level of development, growth rate, control of foreign exchange and allocation of resources. The Chinese economy has been transitioning from a planned economy to a more market-oriented economy. Despite reforms, the government continues to exercise significant control over China's economic growth by way of the allocation of resources, control over foreign currency-denominated obligations and monetary policy and provision of preferential treatment to particular industries or companies. In addition, the laws, regulations and legal requirements in China, including the laws that apply to foreign-invested enterprises, or FIEs, are subject to frequent changes. The interpretation and enforcement of such laws is uncertain. Protections of intellectual property rights and confidentiality in China may not be as effective as in the U.S. or other countries or regions with more developed legal systems. Any litigation in China may be protracted and result in substantial costs and diversion of resources and management attention. Any adverse changes to these laws, regulations and legal requirements or their interpretation or enforcement could have a material adverse effect on our business. Furthermore, while China's economy has experienced rapid growth in the past 30 years, growth has been uneven across different regions, among various economic sectors and over time. China has also in the past and may in the future experience economic downturns due to, for example, government austerity measures, changes in government policies relating to capital spending, limitations placed on the ability of commercial banks to make loans, reduced levels of exports and international trade, inflation, lack of financial liquidity, stock market volatility and global economic conditions. Any of these developments could contribute to a decline in business and consumer spending in addition to other adverse market conditions, which could adversely affect our business.

Outbreaks of epidemic, pandemic, or contagious diseases, such as the recent COVID-19 or, historically, the Ebola virus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or the H1N1 virus, could result in business disruptions. Business disruptions could include disruptions or restrictions on our ability to travel or to distribute our products, as well as temporary closures of our facilities or the facilities of our suppliers and their contract manufacturers. Any disruption of our suppliers and their contract manufacturers or our customers would likely impact our sales and operating results. In addition, a significant outbreak of epidemic, pandemic, or contagious diseases in the human population could result in a widespread health crisis that could adversely affect the economies and financial markets of many countries, resulting in an economic downturn that could affect demand for our products. Any of these events could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, results of operations, or cash flows. The spread of COVID-19 has previously impacted our supply chain operations through restrictions, reduced capacity and shutdown of business activities by suppliers whom we rely on for sourcing components and materials and third-party partners whom we rely on for manufacturing, warehousing and logistics services. Any disruption resulting from similar events on a larger scale or over a prolonged period could cause significant delays in supply of needed components, which would likely have a negative impact on our business, results of operations, and our financial condition. Our ability to use our net operating losses and certain other tax attributes may be limited.     As of December 31, 202 4 , we had U.S. accumulated net operating loss carryforwards, or NOLs, of approximately $147.3 million, federal and state research and development credits ("R&D credits") of $12.5 million, business interest expense carryforwards of $20.7 million and foreign tax credits of $4.6 million for U.S. federal income tax purposes. Our ability to use our net operating losses, or NOLs, to offset future taxable income may be subject to certain limitations which could subject our business to higher tax liability. We may be limited in the portion of NOL carryforwards that we can use in the future to offset taxable income for U.S. federal and state income tax purposes, and federal tax credits to offset federal tax liabilities. Sections 382 and 383 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended, limit the use of NOLs and tax credits after a cumulative change in corporate ownership of more than 50% occurs within a three-year period. The statutes place a formula limit on how much NOLs and tax credits a corporation can use in a tax year after a change in ownership. Avoiding an ownership change is generally beyond our control. Although the ownership changes we experienced in the past would not have prevented us from using all NOLs and tax credits accumulated before such ownership changes, assuming we were otherwise able to do so, we could experience another ownership change that might limit our use of NOLs and tax credits in the future. Under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, or Tax Act, NOLs from tax years that began after December 31, 2017 do not expire, but NOLs from tax years that began before January 1, 2018 expire after 20 years. Further, under the Tax Act, although the treatment of tax losses generated in taxable years ending before December 31, 2017 has generally not changed, tax losses generated in taxable years beginning after December 31, 2017 may offset no more than 80% of taxable income annually. Accordingly, if we generate NOLs after the tax year ended December 31, 2017, we might have to pay more federal income taxes in a subsequent year as a result of the 80% taxable income limitation than we would have had to pay under the law in effect before the Tax Act.  Also, any foreign NOLs (for example NOLs in our China and Taiwan jurisdictions) are subject to different NOL expirations, generally shorter than in the US.   We have identified a material weakness in our internal control over financial reporting which may, if not remediated, result in material misstatements in our financial statement.   Our management is responsible for establishing and maintaining adequate internal control over our financial reporting, as defined in Rule 13a-15(f) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. As disclosed in Item 9A, "Controls and Procedures," our controls and procedures were not effective as a result of a material weakness in internal controls over financial reporting. The material weakness related to an error pertaining to operation of controls over our review of technical accounting analysis. A material weakness is defined as a deficiency, or combination of deficiencies, in internal control over financial reporting, such that there is a reasonable possibility that a material misstatement of our annual or interim financial statements will not be prevented or detected on a timely basis. As a result of this material weakness, our management concluded that our internal control over financial reporting and related disclosure controls and procedures were not effective. We are actively engaged in developing a remediation plan designed to address this material weakness. If our remedial measures are insufficient to address the material weakness, or if additional material weaknesses or significant deficiencies in our internal control are discovered or occur in the future, our ability to record, process and report financial information accurately, and to prepare financial statements within required time periods, could be adversely affected. If we are unable to remediate the material weakness, or if we are otherwise unable to maintain effective internal control over financial reporting, our financial statements may contain material misstatements and we could be required to restate our financial results. If our financial statements are not filed on a timely basis or we are required to restate our financial results, we could be in violation of covenants contained in the agreements governing our debt and other borrowings. Our future results of operations may be subject to volatility as a result of exposure to fluctuations in currency exchange  rates.   We have significant foreign currency exposure and are affected by fluctuations among the U.S. dollar, the Chinese Renminbi, or RMB, and the New Taiwan dollar, or NT dollar, because a substantial portion of our business is conducted in China and Taiwan. Our sales, raw materials, components and capital expenditures are denominated in U.S. dollars, RMB and NT dollars in varying amounts.   Foreign currency fluctuations may adversely affect our revenue and our costs and expenses, and hence our results of operations. The value of the NT dollar or the RMB against the U.S. dollar and other currencies may fluctuate and be affected by, among other things, changes in political and economic conditions. The RMB currency is no longer being pegged solely to the value of the U.S. dollar. In the long term, the RMB may appreciate or depreciate significantly in value against the U.S. dollar, depending upon the fluctuation of the basket of currencies against which it is currently valued, or it may be permitted to enter into a full float, which may also result in a significant appreciation or depreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar. In addition, our currency exchange variations may be magnified by Chinese exchange control regulations that restrict our ability to convert RMB into foreign currency.   To date, we have not entered into any hedging transactions in an effort to reduce our exposure to foreign currency exchange risk. While we may decide to enter into hedging transactions in the future, the availability and effectiveness of these hedging transactions may be limited and we may not be able to successfully hedge our exposure.

In each of our markets, technology standards influence customer purchasing patterns and vendor selection. Network operators deploy the next generation of technology at different times, and typically reduce or stop their purchase of the trailing generation of equipment in advance of their deployment of the next generation. Our revenue from sales of the trailing generation products may fall rapidly, or at an uneven rate, and the prices at which we can sell the trailing generation products may decline. If we do not effectively manage our inventory, we may have an excess of inventory that we may not be able to participate in vendor selection processes of operators and their equipment providers for the next generation of technology deployment, which would reduce our future revenue potential.