XRP (XRP-USD) is entering one of its most eventful months in years. Two regulatory decisions could break from the old pattern on its price action, with bulls dreaming of a breakout and skeptics warning of setbacks. The ETF clock is ticking and Ripple’s banking license is on the line.
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SEC Weighs the First XRP Spot ETF
By late October, the SEC must deliver a final verdict on multiple spot XRP ETF applications from issuers like Bitwise, Grayscale, and 21Shares. Unlike previous delays, this time the regulator is running out of extensions.
An approval would mark a watershed moment. Just as Bitcoin’s ETF opened the floodgates for institutional money, an XRP ETF would give both funds and retail investors a way in without touching crypto exchanges. With XRP’s market cap smaller than Bitcoin’s was at its ETF debut, inflows could have an outsized effect on price.
A rejection, however, would sting. The SEC has a long history of caution with crypto products, and XRP’s legal baggage may still weigh on the decision. Traders know the risk, but many are betting approval will finally materialize.
Ripple Seeks a Banking License
Alongside the ETF deadline, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency is set to rule on Ripple’s bid for a national banking charter. If approved, Ripple would stand shoulder to shoulder with federally regulated trust banks in the United States.
Such recognition would give Ripple a level of legitimacy few crypto firms enjoy, unlocking new doors for enterprise partnerships and cross-border settlement. Bulls argue this could be the spark that propels XRP into double-digit territory, a roughly 3.5x move from current levels.
But the hurdles are real. National charters are granted only after strict reviews of management, capital, and compliance. Ripple may be stronger after its SEC win, but it still faces scrutiny from regulators and competition from established financial firms.
Bulls Dream, But Risks Remain
Optimists see everything lining up at once. The ETF approval plus the banking license could cement XRP as the most institutionally credible altcoin on the market, fueling a rally toward $10 and beyond.
Yet both outcomes are uncertain. A rejection or delay could send XRP sliding back toward key support at $2.60, erasing months of progress. And even if approvals come through, execution matters. Ripple must prove it can scale adoption fast enough to justify the hype.
At the time of writing, XRP is sitting at $3.0246.
