Nintendo (NTDOF) has announced its sales forecast for the Nintendo Switch 2 in its latest earnings report. The video game company says it expects to sell 15 million units in its Fiscal 2026 year, which ends in March 2026. The Switch 2 won’t be released until June 5, 2025, but preorders for the console have largely sold out.
Nintendo’s Switch 2 sales forecast is strong, above the 14.87 million Switch units sold during its first year on the market. It also expects Switch 2 software sales for that period to reach 45 million units. That makes sense as the company plans to support the Switch 2 with a wide variety of first-party titles, such as Mario Kart World Tour, Donkey Kong Bananza, Metroid Prime 4, and Kirby Air Riders.
Of course, the launch of the Switch 2 is expected to take the wind out of original Switch sales. Nintendo expects 4.5 million units will be sold in Fiscal 2026, down 58.3% year-over-year. Switch software sales are also expected to drop 32.4% to 105 million units.
How Will Switch 2 Sales Compare to Nintendo’s Rivals?
If Nintendo does sell 15 million Switch 2 units in Fiscal 2026, it would be strong start for the hanheld/home console hybrid. Microsoft’s (MSFT) Xbox Series X/S were estimated to have sold roughly 12 million units in their first year, while Sony’s (SONY) PlayStation 5 reportedly sold approximately 15 million in its first year. This would see the Switch 2 match or surpass them without a full year.
There’s also hope that demand for the Switch 2 will remain high in the years to come. If so, it could see Nintendo surpass Switch sales, which are set at about 152 million units, making it the second-best selling home console in history.
Is NTDOF Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Turning to Wall Street, the analysts’ estimate for Nintendo is Moderate Buy, based on six Buy, one Hold, and one Sell ratings over the last three months. With that comes an average NTDOF price target of $86.14, representing a potential 0.53% downside for the shares. These ratings and price targets will likely change as analysts update their coverage after today’s earnings.
