Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is sliding about 3.7% today, extending the prior session’s 2% losses as investors continue to digest a disappointing set of first-quarter figures.
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Forget margin or options. Here's how the pros trade TSLALast week, Tesla reported its Q1 production and delivery results, which came in weaker than expected across both vehicles and energy products. Street estimates were pointing to more than 365,000 vehicle deliveries, but the company delivered only 358,023. Tesla also reported deploying 8.8 GWh of energy storage in Q1, well below the more than 14 GWh analysts had anticipated. The weak Q1 delivery figures came against a backdrop of expired EV incentives and the use of discounts to support demand, but the widespread promotions and price cuts had a limited impact on boosting sales.
In the days following Tesla’s Q1 release, analyst expectations have already started to drift lower. The average revenue estimate has eased from $23.06 billion to $22.93 billion, though it still points to growth of more than 18.5% versus last year’s softer base.
Looking further out, investor Bill Maurer warns that this may not be the end of the revisions, suggesting that 2026 estimates could continue to reset lower in the weeks ahead.
Tesla is slated to report its full set of Q1 results on April 22, when Maurer’s attention will be on how discounts and lower-priced variants have affected revenue and margins. At the same time, spending is likely to increase as the company moves ahead with launching its robotaxi network and broader AI initiatives.
Meanwhile, Maurer believes the stock still trades at an exorbitant valuation and appears extremely expensive relative to traditional automakers. It ended last week trading at nearly 175 times its expected adjusted earnings for 2026, while the two largest U.S. automakers are valued at only single-digit multiples of their projected earnings. Of course, Tesla has never been considered a traditional automaker and is seen more as a tech play, but even then, its valuation still sits well above that of major U.S. tech firms, which generally trade at around 20 to 30 times their annual earnings.
All the above add up to a bleak picture, in Maurer’s view, prompting him to assign Tesla shares a Sell rating. (To watch Maurer’s track record, click here)
“The Q1 numbers announced Thursday were not good, to say the least, and that will only fuel demand questions even further moving forward. Investors were already on edge about Tesla’s huge spending plans for this year, and the latest news will increase concerns about the company’s near-term future,” Maurer summed up.
Turning now to the general Street view, 8 analysts join Maurer in the bear camp, while an additional 13 Buys and 11 Holds all add up to a Hold (i.e., Neutral) consensus rating. At $393.97, the average price target offers a 12-month upside of ~16%. (See TSLA stock forecast)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured investor. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.