Why SoFi Stock Is Down Today – and Why One Analyst Says ‘Buy the Dip’

SoFi (NASDAQ:SOFI) stock is down about 9% on Wednesday, even after delivering a first-quarter report that came in above expectations on both revenue and EBITDA. The pullback appears driven less by the headline numbers and more by what investors did not get, as management kept its full-year outlook unchanged despite the upside in the quarter. That decision, alongside a weaker mix in fee-based revenue and softer-than-expected platform volume, raised concerns about the quality and durability of growth.

Still, the underlying results point to a business that continues to execute at a high level. Adjusted net revenue reached $1.09 billion, topping expectations of $1.05 billion and marking about 41% year-over-year growth, while adjusted EPS of $0.12 matched estimates and doubled from the prior-year period. The company also reaffirmed its full-year outlook, calling for about $4.65 billion in adjusted revenue and roughly $1.6 billion in EBITDA, both in line with consensus, suggesting confidence in the broader trajectory even if investors were hoping for a higher bar.

William Blair’s Andrew Jeffrey is leaning into the weakness, maintaining a constructive stance and encouraging investors to take advantage of the pullback. The analyst openly acknowledges that expectations heading into the quarter were too optimistic, writing that he was “clearly too bullish into first quarter results,” particularly as private credit challenges “appear to have dented fee revenue.” Still, despite those headwinds, his overall view remains intact, as he reiterates that “we are buyers on weakness.”

Jeffrey also pushes back on the idea that the results represent a fundamental shift, arguing that “we see limited downside with the stock trading at roughly 8x our 2027 EBITDA estimate,” which suggests valuation already reflects a more cautious outlook. While the analyst flags the platform miss and fee pressure as areas that will weigh on sentiment, he frames them as cyclical rather than structural, noting that SoFi remains “meaningfully overcapitalized and positioned to fund more loans on its balance sheet.” In his view, strong loan demand continues to support the business, with originations coming in well ahead of expectations, reinforcing the underlying momentum.

On the credit side, Jeffrey acknowledges that “bears will pick on personal loan losses,” which have moved higher in recent quarters, yet he also emphasizes that this trend is partly influenced by fewer delinquent loan sales and should normalize over time. The analyst adds that management will need to demonstrate that life-of-loan losses remain within the company’s target range, suggesting that while the issue may remain a talking point, it does not undermine the broader thesis.

Stepping back, Jeffrey maintains that the company is still executing on its long-term strategy, highlighting that it continues “transforming banking” while delivering growth across key performance indicators such as members, products, and originations. The analyst also points to its ability to “generate durably above-average organic revenue, EBITDA, and FCF ROIC performance,” reinforcing his belief that the current pressure reflects near-term mix and guidance dynamics rather than any deeper issue. In that context, the recent decline looks more like a reset in expectations, offering an entry point for investors who share his longer-term view.

To this end, Jeffrey stays with the bulls, assigning SOFI shares an Outperform (i.e., Buy) rating. (To watch Jeffrey’s track record, click here)

The rest of Wall Street, however, remains on the sidelines. Based on coverage from about 15 analysts, including 5 Buys, 7 Holds, and 3 Sells, SoFi carries a Hold (i.e., Neutral) consensus rating. Price targets cluster in the low-to-mid $20s, with an average of $23.27, implying about 27% upside from current levels. (See SOFI stock forecast)

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.