TD Cowen is doubling down on Big Tech ahead of next week’s earnings, stating that AI adoption, cloud demand, and product-cycle strength continue to set up Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Microsoft (MSFT) for durable growth. The firm’s analysts believe the sector is entering a new phase where GenAI monetization, enterprise upgrade cycles, and rising cloud workloads are becoming clearer drivers, even as macro uncertainty and cost pressures linger.
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Forget margin or options. Here's how the pros trade AMZNAcross the board, TD Cowen said the market is still underestimating Big Tech’s AI momentum, pointing to three key drivers: faster AI adoption, stronger cloud demand, and product cycles that could fuel share gains through 2026, even as execution risks remain. The firm argued that investors continue to overlook how durable and large these AI‑driven revenue streams could be.
Microsoft: Copilot Adoption Set to Steepen
TD Cowen analyst J. Derrick Wood reiterated a Buy rating and $540 price target on Microsoft stock. He raised long-term estimates for O365 Commercial Cloud, now expecting about 15% revenue CAGR from FY26-FY30, up from 13.5%. Wood cited strong upgrade intentions from the firm’s GenAI survey and believes the new E7 bundle and Copilot Cowork release will accelerate adoption.
His base case: Copilot usage climbs from about 4% in FY26 to roughly 17% in FY30, showing a strong monetization ramp ahead.
MSFT is scheduled to report earnings on April 29. Overall, Wall Street analysts expect Microsoft to post revenue of $81.37 billion in fiscal Q3, up from $70.07 billion in the year-ago quarter. Further, the company is expected to report earnings of $4.06 per share, compared with earnings of $3.46 in the prior-year quarter.
Amazon: Anthropic Partnership Deepens AWS GenAI Revenue
TD Cowen’s John Blackledge reiterated a Buy rating and $300 price target on AMZN stock. He highlighted AWS’ expanded partnership with Anthropic, including up to 5GW of Trainium usage and more than $100 billion in planned spending over the next decade. Under this deal, Amazon invests $5 billion now with the option to add another $20 billion.
Blackledge’s model now sees AWS generating GenAI revenue from three Anthropic-linked sources: LLM training spend, a 40% API revenue share in 2025, and compute usage for the Claude chatbot, all reinforcing AWS’ strengthening AI economics.
The tech giant is set to report Q1 earnings on April 29. Wall Street expects AMZN to report Q1 revenue of $177.27 billion and EPS of $1.63, slightly above last year’s $155.67 billion and $1.59, respectively.
Apple: Strong iPhone 17 Cycle, AI Siri, and Margin Watch
TD Cowen analyst Krish Sankar reiterated a Buy rating and $325 price target on Apple. He expects Apple to report over 15% year-over-year revenue growth for the March quarter and to guide June-quarter revenue up about 10% year-over-year, driven by healthy iPhone 17 demand and the new MacBook Neo.
Key watch items: Apple’s ability to manage memory cost inflation and the launch of a compelling AI‑powered Siri. Sankar believes Apple will continue gaining share in both smartphones and PCs, with sentiment already positive heading into earnings.
Apple is set to report earnings on April 30. Currently, analysts expect AAPL to post revenue of $109.45 billion in fiscal Q2, up from $95.36 billion in the year-ago quarter. Further, the company is expected to report earnings of $1.95 per share, compared with earnings of $1.65 in the prior-year quarter.
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