AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) shares are taking a hit in pre-market trading, sliding about 13% after a launch setback raised new questions about execution at a critical stage of its rollout.
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Forget margin or options. Here's how the pros trade ASTSThe company’s BlueBird 7 satellite, launched aboard Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket, was placed into a lower-than-planned orbit, leaving it unable to sustain operations and forcing it to be deorbited. While the financial impact is expected to be covered by insurance, the real damage lies in lost time, as AST continues racing to deploy enough satellites to support its space-based cellular network.
The pullback also comes on the heels of another pressure point that had already been weighing on the stock. Amazon’s recent move to acquire Globalstar has put a bigger focus on competition and pricing risks in the direct-to-device satellite market. That deal reinforced the idea that well-capitalized players are moving aggressively into the same space AST is targeting, leaving investors more cautious about how crowded the opportunity could become and what that means for long-term returns.
At the same time, both Amazon and AST are still playing catch-up to SpaceX, which continues to widen its lead through its Starlink network. The gap has become harder to ignore in recent weeks, as Starlink racks up milestone after milestone during what is shaping up to be a record year. The company has already launched more than a thousand satellites across dozens of successful missions in 2026, while steadily expanding its footprint through new carrier agreements across Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania. Several of those partnerships overlap with regions where AST had previously signed memorandums of understanding, raising questions about how much of that early pipeline remains intact. Meanwhile, Starlink’s fixed broadband base has reached around 10 million users, giving it a scale advantage that is difficult for any emerging player to match.
Against that backdrop, Scotiabank analyst Andres Coello, who is ranked among the top 1% of analysts on Wall Street, argues that the risk-reward profile still leans to the downside, even after the recent decline.
“We recognize the impressive design of the ASTS satellites, but tough competitive dynamics, low ARPUs and high capex intensity aren’t supportive of valuation,” Coello said. “At 34x 2027E EV/Sales, ASTS is at a premium to the SpaceX’s IPO, which we estimate at 27x–34x 2027E.”
To this end, Coello assigns ASTS shares an Underperform (i.e., Sell) rating and a $41.20 price target, implying the shares could still fall about 52% from Friday’s closing price. (To watch Coello’s track record, click here)
The rest of Wall Street isn’t exactly rushing in to buy the dip here, either, as ASTS currently carries a Hold (i.e., Neutral) consensus rating. Among the 11 analysts who cover the stock, only 4 recommend buying, while 5 stay on the sidelines and 2 rate it a Sell. The average price target stands at $91.03, implying about 6% upside from Friday’s closing price. (See ASTS stock forecast)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.