VanEck Semiconductor ETF Sees Outflows Despite AI Strength

VanEck Semiconductor ETF ( $SMH ) has fallen by 6.36% in the past week. It has experienced a 5-day net inflow of $190.36 million.
This is due, in part, to market sentiment on some of the ETF’s largest holdings. For example:

• Nvidia Corporation stayed at the center of the AI trade as analysts lifted targets and reiterated Strong Buy views despite new U.S. proposals to tighten AI‑chip exports to China and the halt of China‑bound H200 production. Record Q4 FY26 revenue of $68.1 billion, rapid adoption of its Blackwell and future Vera Rubin platforms, and strong data‑center demand keep Wall Street focused on long‑term growth, even as Middle East security risks force temporary office closures and add geopolitical noise.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited saw its shares fall about 8% as Nvidia redirected China H200 capacity toward Vera Rubin chips, stoking worries about choppy near‑term China demand and fueling heavy, downside‑skewed options activity. Yet fundamentals remain solid, with January sales up 36.8%, a precise but tiny dividend increase, clean U.S. SEC filings, and plans for up to $75 billion in AI‑oriented capital spending, leaving human and AI analysts aligned on Buy/Outperform ratings and price targets well above current levels.
• Broadcom Inc. drew intense investor and analyst attention after a blowout fiscal first quarter, where revenue jumped nearly 30% and AI‑chip sales more than doubled to $8.4 billion, underpinning a Strong Buy consensus and targets around $460. Guidance points to $22 billion in next‑quarter revenue and an AI roadmap that could surpass $100 billion in cumulative chip sales by 2027, while CEO Hock Tan’s preference for copper over near‑term optical networking shapes expectations for data‑center architectures without denting enthusiasm for Broadcom’s custom XPU and networking franchise.