VanEck Semiconductor ETF Sees Inflows Amid AI Volatility

VanEck Semiconductor ETF ( $SMH ) has fallen by 2.33% in the past week. It has experienced a 5-day net inflow of $3.19 billion.
This is due, in part, to market sentiment on some of the ETF’s largest holdings. For example:

• Nvidia Corporation stayed in focus as its shares dipped 3.8% despite a bullish backdrop, with analysts calling the pullback “too cheap to ignore.” Wolfe Research and others see Nvidia as a prime AI winner, highlighting CEO Jensen Huang’s $1 trillion Blackwell/Rubin revenue outlook through 2027 and arguing the stock’s current valuation still leaves substantial upside.

  Analysts project Nvidia’s data‑center sales could exceed prior expectations, driving earnings toward the low‑teens per share by FY28 and supporting aggressive price targets. At the same time, an export‑control case involving Super Micro has unnerved parts of the AI server chain, but also underlined how critical Nvidia’s GPUs remain, with Tesla and other major customers reiterating their intention to keep ordering its chips at scale.

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited reinforced its status as the key “pick‑and‑shovel” play in AI, with February revenue jumping over 22% year‑on‑year to about $10.1 billion and early 2026 sales nearly 30% higher. Nvidia has overtaken Apple as TSMC’s largest customer, and its advanced 3nm/5nm lines and CoWoS packaging are fully booked, supporting strong margins and a broad Wall Street Strong Buy stance.

  Investors are monitoring new risks after Gulf‑region conflict sent helium prices sharply higher, threatening a crucial input for advanced chip production, though TSMC says its operations remain normal for now. The company is also engaging ADR holders ahead of its 2026 AGM, while analysts keep lifting targets—some up to $470—arguing TSMC’s dominant position in AI processors offsets geopolitical, capex and supply‑chain uncertainties.

• Micron Technology delivered one of its strongest quarters in years, with revenue soaring to $23.9 billion, margins near 81% and record free cash flow of $6.9 billion on booming AI demand for DRAM, NAND and high‑bandwidth memory. Despite the stellar numbers, the stock slipped on profit‑taking and worries over heavy capex, but Wall Street broadly views the pullback as a buying opportunity.

  Top analysts from Huatai, BofA, J.P. Morgan and Barclays have raced to lift price targets, in some cases up to $675, citing multi‑year supply tightness, new five‑year strategic customer agreements and limited new cleanroom capacity before 2027–28. While higher spending and the risk of a classic memory down‑cycle remain on the radar, consensus still rates Micron a Strong Buy, betting that AI data centers and structurally firmer pricing can support elevated earnings well beyond the current upturn.