VanEck Semiconductor ETF Rises Amid Outflows and AI Surge

VanEck Semiconductor ETF ( $SMH ) has risen by 11.79% in the past week. It has experienced a 5-day net outflow of $2.21 billion.
This is due, in part, to market sentiment on some of the ETF’s largest holdings. For example:

• Nvidia Corporation remains at the center of the AI boom, with Goldman Sachs reiterating a Buy rating and a $250 target, arguing the stock trades below its historical valuation despite dominant GPU and server CPU positions. Expectations for Q1 FY27 are high, with Wall Street looking for a beat-and-raise on the back of strong demand for Blackwell and Grace Blackwell platforms and a coming wave of “Agentic AI” workloads.
• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited is seeing short‑term caution in derivatives markets even as fundamentals stay strong, with April revenue up 17.5% year on year and year‑to‑date sales rising nearly 30% on AI and high‑performance computing demand. The company deepened its global footprint via a Sony‑led image‑sensor joint venture in Japan and heavy financing for overseas fabs, while analysts keep Buy ratings and targets up to $490 despite rich valuation and margin pressure.
• Intel shares have surged on multiple catalysts, including a newly formalized preliminary deal to manufacture chips for Apple and growing optimism that AI demand is shifting toward CPU‑heavy inference, where Intel is better positioned. While Lynx Equity calls Intel its top 2026 idea and some see further upside as the foundry, quantum and open‑source efforts gain traction, Wall Street’s overall rating remains Hold, with average price targets sitting well below the stock’s recent rally.