Admittedly, things have not been looking great for electric vehicle giant Tesla (TSLA) lately. Growing competition in a declining overall market is not the greatest combination of factors. But Piper Sandler analysts took another look and pointed out a major factor: the current Tesla pricing does not really include the Optimus business. That bit of optimism gave shareholders a lift, and they sent Tesla shares up over 3% in Monday afternoon’s trading.
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Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter—who has nearly a five-star rating on TipRanks—pointed out that Tesla’s current valuation really does not include the Optimus business, which has not really even begun yet. Potter, writing in the second edition of his “Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla,” pointed out that the discounted cash flow analysis calls for a pricing of about $400 per share. That includes about 17 different product lines, starting with the vehicles and going to energy storage and in-house insurance, plus things like full self-driving (FSD) and robotaxi operations.
And that led to Potter’s biggest conclusion: “Critically, this analysis excludes Optimus, Tesla’s forthcoming humanoid robot. In other words, at $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for ‘free’.”
End of an Era
Meanwhile, it was a bit more melancholy day out in California, where the Fremont plant rolled out its last Tesla Model S. Both it and the Model X were shuttered to make room for the Optimus robot, which will be produced at the Fremont factory.
The last Model S was a black version, and every member of the production staff autographed the car, giving it a highly personalized and visually striking impact as a series of signatures in gold type covers a jet-black car. But in order to get that Optimus robot line fired up, something needed to give, and that something was the Model S, along with the Model X.
Is Tesla a Buy, Hold or Sell?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on TSLA stock based on 13 Buys, 12 Holds, and five Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. After a 34.54% rally in its share price over the past year, the average TSLA price target of $410.21 per share implies 6.43% downside risk.
