America’s largest health insurer, UnitedHealth (UNH), is reportedly seeking favor with President Trump’s allies amid ongoing civil and criminal investigations, according to the Wall Street Journal. UNH shares have fallen nearly 30% year-to-date as regulatory challenges weigh on the company.
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The Department of Justice (DOJ) is probing UNH’s Medicare Advantage program for allegedly inflating patient health risks to collect higher payments from the government. Moreover, recent changes to Medicare billing rules have started hurting UnitedHealth’s profits.
UnitedHealth’s Response to Medicare Challenges
Since the probe began in May 2025, UnitedHealth executives have engaged in high-profile meetings with Trump’s senior officials. CEO Stephen Hemsley has met with White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles and held a dinner meeting with Medicare overseer Chris Klomp to discuss the billing and benefits practices. While the report indicates the investigations were not directly discussed, the timing has drawn speculation.
Furthermore, UnitedHealth has doubled its lobbying budget in the first half of 2025 to $7.7 million. The insurer has hired Trump allies such as fundraiser Brian Ballard and former Justice Department official Jesse Panuccio. Additionally, UNH replaced its legal team with Trump’s personal attorney, Robert Giuffra, and his team at Sullivan & Cromwell.
Meanwhile, the company has sought a direct meeting with the president but has not secured one yet. Investors remain concerned about potential policy shifts and stricter billing oversight that could further impact UnitedHealth’s financial outlook.
Is UNH Stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
Despite these issues, analysts remain highly optimistic about UnitedHealth’s long-term outlook. On TipRanks, UNH stock has a Strong Buy consensus rating based on 17 Buys, two Holds, and one Sell rating. The average UnitedHealth price target of $331.67 implies 5.9% downside potential from current levels.
