Walmart (WMT) stock has fallen 6.7% over the past week, but is still up 6.0% in the last month and 33.0% over the past year. Wall Street’s analysts are strongly bullish, forecasting a move toward a 12‑month average price target of $138.32, above the last closing price of $124.87, and rating the shares a StrongBuy overall.
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Oliver Chen (TD Cowen) reiterated his Buy rating on WMT on February 20, 2026, lifting his price target to $145, implying notable upside from current levels. This N‑star analyst ranks 2355 out of 12061 on TipRanks, with a 50.0% success rate and an average return of 4.8% per rating.
Chen argues that Walmart is emerging as an A.I. retail leader, betting that conversational commerce will replace traditional search and shopping lists. He highlights a strong fourth quarter with upside versus expectations, 4.6% U.S. same‑store sales growth, and operating income up 10.5%, while acknowledging that a conservative long‑term earnings outlook may be tempering the market reaction.
A key part of Chen’s thesis is Sparky, Walmart’s A.I. assistant, which is shifting search toward intent‑driven shopping and delivering about 35% higher average order value than non‑Sparky users. He also points to Walmart’s success in the “Retail Nexus” of marketplace, digital advertising, and A.I., with U.S. ad revenue (Walmart Connect) up 41% and advertising plus membership fees making up nearly one‑third of operating income.
Simeon Gutman (Morgan Stanley) also reiterated a Buy (Overweight) on WMT on February 20, 2026, with a $135 price target, suggesting moderate upside and a balanced risk/reward profile. This N‑star analyst ranks 1803 out of 12061 on TipRanks, with a 60.69% success rate and an average return of 4.4% per rating.
Gutman sees sustained momentum in adjusted operating income as Walmart leans on its eCommerce flywheel to offset deeper grocery price rollbacks. He notes record growth in first‑party and third‑party online sales (estimated +27%), Walmart Connect advertising (+41% excluding VIZIO), and Walmart+ membership fees (+28%), which together drove operating income growth above 10% despite aggressive price investments.
Both analysts emphasize Walmart’s structural advantages in scale and technology as it widens grocery price gaps and captures market share in “agentic” or intent‑driven commerce. For investors, the message is that while valuation is elevated, Walmart’s digital, advertising, and membership engines are increasingly important profit drivers that could support further gains in the stock.
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