A U.S. Army Special Forces master sergeant, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, has been arrested for allegedly using classified government information to make profitable bets on Polymarket. According to the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ), the soldier placed bets a week before the capture of the Venezuelan leader, Nicolas Maduro, and made over $400,000.
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U.S. Soldier Exploits Classified Briefing to Place Winning Bets
Van Dyke, a 38-year-old master sergeant who has served in the U.S. Army since 2008, was directly involved in the planning and execution of a U.S. military mission called “Operation Absolute Resolve.” The operation led to the capture of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in January 2026.
According to prosecutors, the soldier created an account on Polymarket on December 26 and placed 13 bets between December 27 and January 2, a day before the raid on Caracas, where Maduro was captured. The bets totaled $33,000, and all predicted outcomes were tied to U.S. military action in Venezuela.
The soldier had selected “Yes” regarding questions on whether the U.S. would enter the country, whether Maduro would be removed from power, and whether President Donald Trump would invoke the War Powers Act. After the operation, each of these bets succeeded, allegedly totaling almost $410,000 in winnings.
Multiple Charges Deepen Scrutiny on Prediction Markets
Van Dyke is now facing multiple charges, including wire fraud, commodities fraud, theft of government information, and unlawful use of confidential data for personal gain. Therefore, the soldier might face up to 20 years in prison if convicted for the most serious charge.
At the same time, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) separately filed a civil complaint against Van Dyke, charging him with three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act.
Notably, the criminal and civil cases were filed in a federal court in Manhattan. This is the same courthouse where Maduro is charged with narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons charges, and where Flores faces cocaine conspiracy and weapons charges.
The case signals growing concerns about insider trading on prediction markets. As a result, those who use platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi to explore prediction markets are now concerned that individuals may use privileged information to exploit the system.
In response, Polymarket announced that it had identified the suspicious activity, reported the case to the authorities, and cooperated with investigators. The private company also mentioned that it recently added new rules to prevent insider trading.
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