Pending home sales in the U.S. rose by 1.8% month-over-month in February, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). That marked the first monthly uptick in three months and came in well above the consensus estimate for a drop of 0.6%. Homebuilder stocks, like PulteGroup (PHM), Toll Brothers (TOL), and Lennar (LEN), are showing mixed price action in response to the news.
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Trade QQQ with leverageDuring the month, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) fell to its lowest level since 2022 and ranged between 5.98% and 6.11%.
Surging Oil Prices Could Push Mortgage Rates Higher
Still, NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun warned that pending home sales could reverse lower if rising oil prices lead to higher mortgage rates. In addition, some parts of the U.S. are still grappling with a supply shortage.
Mortgage rates climbed by 11 bps to 6.11% for the week ended March 12, registering the largest weekly jump since September 2025. Elevated oil prices can lead to higher inflation and raise 30-year Treasury yields, which the 30-year FRM is closely anchored to.