EV companies Tesla (TSLA) and Rivian (RIVN) reported their latest quarterly delivery numbers, and the results tell two different stories. Tesla reported 6.3% growth but still fell short of Wall Street expectations. In contrast, Rivian delivered a strong 20% increase and reiterated its 2026 outlook. Notably, Stifel’s five-star analyst Stephen Gengaro weighed in, stating that TSLA stock could face pressure, while RIVN stock could get a lift. Overall, he noted that sustained high gasoline prices—potentially driven by the Iran conflict—could support stronger EV demand.
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Forget margin or options. Here's how the pros trade TSLAOn Thursday, TSLA shares fell over 5%, while RIVN climbed roughly 3% after the Q1 numbers. Gengaro maintains a Buy rating on both stocks. His $508 price target for TSLA signals a potential 41% upside, and a $20 target for Rivian suggests about 30% upside.
‘Negative for TSLA Stock’
Gengaro highlighted that Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles in Q1 2026, missing consensus estimates by roughly 2%. Meanwhile, its energy storage deployments also came in at 8.8 gigawatt-hours, well below the expected 14.4 GWh.
According to him, these results are likely negative for TSLA stock, with the storage shortfall drawing particular investor attention, given energy’s growing role in Tesla’s strategy.
Earlier this month, Gengaro reaffirmed his Buy rating on TSLA, citing significant progress in Full Self-Driving (FSD) and Robotaxi initiatives.
‘Modestly Positive’ for Rivian
For the quarter ending March 31, Rivian delivered 10,365 vehicles, marking a 20% year-over-year increase. This not only met the company’s own projection but also beat Gengaro’s estimates by 4.2%. Looking ahead, Rivian reaffirmed its full-year guidance of 62,000–67,000 vehicles.
Gengaro believes that Rivian’s ability to maintain its annual outlook amid a competitive market may serve as a stabilizing signal, potentially giving RIVN stock a modest boost.
TSLA or RIVN: Which EV Stock Offers Higher Upside, According to Analysts?
Using TipRanks’ Stock Comparison tool, we looked at TSLA and RIVN across several key metrics. Both stocks currently carry a Hold rating from analysts. In terms of share price appreciation, Rivian’s average target of $17.50 suggests about 14.2% upside, slightly higher than Tesla’s $394.36 target, which implies roughly 9.3% upside.
At the same time, investor sentiment remains Positive for RIVN and Neutral for TSLA.
