Earlier this month, President Trump proposed a $2,000 tariff dividend check to everyone except for “high income people.” Since then, he’s brought up the topic several times and hinted that the checks could be sent out in the middle of 2026. Pangea Policy founder Terry Haines believes that the possibility of these checks is “very likely.”
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“Trump keeps talking about it with increasing specificity, and Trump and congressional Rs have the legislative means to get it done, so markets today should consider it real,” wrote Haines in a note to clients.
Tariff Checks Could be Passed Through a Reconciliation Bill
Haines added that one potential path to getting approval for the checks in Congress is through a reconciliation bill. This type of bill would allow the Senate to pass legislation without Democratic support because Republicans hold a majority in the chamber.
Trump hasn’t specified what qualifies an individual or couple as “high income.” During Trump’s first term, individuals making up to $75,000 per year and couples making up to $150,000 per year were eligible for his two rounds of stimulus checks.
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