France-based TotalEnergies (TTE) has made a big bet on Middle East oil through its trading unit. While production in some areas is disrupted due to the ongoing war, its trading division aggressively bought cheap Middle Eastern crude ahead of the price spike. That move is now paying off, as rising tensions in the Middle East push oil prices higher. Meanwhile, TTE stock has gained over 10% in the past month and more than 35% year to date. Looking ahead, analysts remain moderately bullish. However, the near-term upside may be limited after the recent run-up in the stock.
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For context, TotalEnergies is a global energy company that produces and trades oil, natural gas, and electricity across multiple regions.
TotalEnergies’ Middle East Strategy
According to traders tracking the Platts pricing window, the company bought 69 crude cargoes tied to the Dubai benchmark in March alone. The Financial Times, citing sources close to the company, said its traders made over $1 billion by buying almost every available oil cargo from the UAE and Oman for May delivery. Notably, the Platts pricing window is a short daily period where oil traders submit real buy and sell deals, bids, and offers to help set benchmark crude prices.
At the same time, tensions in the region disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil supply. This limited available supply and pushed prices higher, especially for oil from Abu Dhabi and Oman. Dubai oil prices jumped sharply during the month—from around $70 before the conflict to nearly $170 at the peak—while Brent crude rose to about $120. With fewer trades happening, the market became more volatile—making it easier for a single player to dominate. As a result, TotalEnergies kept buying aggressively, helping push prices higher.
Meanwhile, the company also used financial tools like futures and options to manage risk and bet on rising prices. Adi Imsirovic, a lecturer in energy systems at the University of Oxford, called it one of the biggest bets ever seen in oil markets. He added that TotalEnergies likely benefited from being heavily positioned in paper oil just as the war escalated and the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted.
Jefferies Stays Bullish on TTE Stock
Last week, Jefferies’ four-star-rated analyst Mark Wilson reiterated his Buy rating on TTE stock. Wilson highlighted the Rio Grande LNG project as a strong long-term asset, with solid cost positioning and clear growth potential in the global LNG market. It also adds better visibility to future cash flows.
At the same time, Wilson said recent disruptions impacting LNG supply in Qatar and the UAE should have only a small impact on the company. The hit to 2026 cash flow is estimated at around $200 million, which is manageable.
Is TTE a Good Stock to Buy?
According to TipRanks, TTE stock has received a Moderate Buy consensus rating, with 10 Buys, eight Holds, and one Sell assigned in the last three months. The average price target for TotalEnergies is $84.31, suggesting a potential downside of 6% from the current level.
