GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson reiterated his Sell rating and $25.28 price target on Tesla (TSLA), implying 92.6% downside potential. He warned of sharp declines as the stock resets to its true fundamentals, without speculative options trading propping it up. A longtime Tesla bear, Johnson has held his Sell rating since initiating coverage years ago.
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New trading tool for TSLA bearsHe argued that 2026 has broken a persistent mechanical options tailwind, one that looks unlikely to return. Hence, TSLA stock now faces a fundamental re-rating and sharp downside this year.
Tesla’s ‘Options Tailwind’ Explained
For six years, Tesla shares benefited from aggressive retail call-option buying, sparking gamma squeezes. It’s a situation where dealers have to buy underlying shares to hedge, driving prices higher in a self-reinforcing loop unlike anything in the S&P 500.
According to Johnson, 2026 marks a shift as retail call buying has dried up. The put-to-call ratio has been above 0.60x on 64 out of 65 trading days so far, compared to just 11.5% of days over 2020-2025. The put-to-call ratio measures put options (bets on falling prices) versus call options (bets on rising prices). Readings above 0.60x signal more bearish bets from traders. TSLA call volume has lagged total S&P 500 call volume every day this year.
He pointed out that this artificial lift from options trading is gone for the first time ever, having lasted up to March this year. In the past, Tesla stock surged 2.46% on days of heavy call buying (77% win rate when put-to-call ratio fell below 0.60x). Johnson says this was not real outperformance; it was just traders buying shares to cover their bets (called gamma hedging), which fueled wild retail hype.
Is TSLA a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
On TipRanks, TSLA has a Hold consensus rating based on 13 Buys, 11 Holds, and eight Sell ratings. The average Tesla price target of $393.97 implies 14.8% upside potential from current levels. Year-to-date, TSLA shares have dropped 23.7%.
