It hasn’t been such a great year for investors in Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN), as they’ve watched in dismay as the company’s share price has sunk by some 30% in 2026.
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Though it continues to operate at a loss, Rivian bulls are looking forward to a brighter future. The recent start of manufacturing for the R2 model, a partnership with the ride-hailing giant Uber, and ongoing AI software developments are all pointing to a smoother road ahead, or so the thinking goes.
Those who have a less rosy view choose to focus on the here and now, with worries over cash burn and deliveries on their minds. Some of these investors likely prefer to base their decisions on concrete benchmarks of progress and cold, hard numbers.
Investor Ryan Vanzo is also looking at some figures, and believes he’s found a “clear precedent” that could turn Rivian into a long-term winner.
“If you had invested $1 million in Tesla stock in 2019, that investment would now be worth around $18.7 million today. Could the same be true for Rivian?” ponders the investor.
Vanzo notes that the R2 and its slated starting price of less than $50,000 gives Rivian a real opportunity to achieve “mass scale.” In that sense, he suggests the possibility that the R2 could do for Rivian what the Model Y did for Tesla.
He cites Tesla’s 2019 market cap of ~$75 billion, the year before the Model Y crossover got its start. Today, Tesla’s market cap is around $1.4 trillion, or 18.7x greater.
Moreover, Vanzo points out that Rivian has another feather in its cap: the potential of AI-powered autonomous driving.
The investor believes that Rivian could become a key supplier in the robotaxi market, noting its investment in AI and autonomous technologies. Vanzo even goes so far as to speculate that Uber – which recently announced an investment of up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031 – might one day seek to “acquire the company outright” in pursuit of its autonomous driving ambitions.
And that turns Vanzo very bullish indeed when it comes to Rivian.
“This artificial intelligence (AI) stock still trades at a discount to its potential,” he emphasizes. (To watch Vanzo’s track record, click here)
Wall Street offers a bit of a mixed bag. With 10 Buys, 8 Holds, and 4 Sells, RIVN carries a Moderate Buy consensus rating. Its 12-month average price target of $18.14 points to an upside of ~32%. (See RIVN stock forecast)
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured investor. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.