The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro & Markets, June 22, 2025

Everything to Know about Macro and Markets

Stocks closed mixed on Friday amid hopes for de-escalation in the Middle East, still clocking in a second straight week in the red. Despite eking out a small increase on the last trading day of the holiday-shortened week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended the weekly session down 1.77%, returning to a year-to-date loss. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SPX) fell 1.28%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 (NDX) lost 1.31% for the week, with both benchmarks still in the green for the year.     

The Trade War and The Real War

Stock markets were moved by geopolitical news during the week, with the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting adding a significant macro highlight. The week opened positively as fears of all-out Mideast war eased, after which the rally crumbled – and crude resumed its climb – as Tehran threatened escalation and former President Donald Trump demanded “total surrender.”

After Thursday’s Juneteenth closure, investors returned on Friday hoping for the best – but stocks lost ground throughout the day on another bout of trade news. The declines were led by semiconductor and chip equipment stocks, which fell after The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. plans to cancel the blanket waivers that allow international chip companies like Samsung, SK Hynix , and TSMC to easily send American chipmaking equipment to their factories in China.

The possibility of new restrictions hit risk appetite that had just begun recovering on signs that Trump is giving a chance to diplomacy vis-à-vis Tehran, and after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he sees a rate cut in July, adding that the inflation hit from tariffs is likely to be short-lived.

The Rock and The Hard Place

Wednesday’s Fed interest rate decision brought no surprises, as the central bank kept rates unchanged, noting that uncertainty “has diminished but remains elevated.” Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that “the economy is in a solid position,” and the Fed is well-positioned to provide a timely response to any economic developments.

The Fed’s “Dot Plot” also remained unchanged, as policymakers still expect two rate cuts this year. However, expectations for inflation and unemployment by the end of 2025 both rose, while projections for GDP growth declined, underscoring the Fed’s difficulties in establishing monetary policy amid contrasting economic crosscurrents and elevated geopolitical risks.

Meanwhile, economic data appear to be confirming the Fed’s view of a gradually softening economy. Retail sales fell for a second straight month in May, declining by the most so far in 2025 and marking the first back-to-back monthly decline since the end of 2023. Industrial production declined again, and the NAHB homebuilder confidence index slumped to its lowest since the end of 2022 – while new home construction dropped to the lowest level since 2020.

This and other data, coupled with the Fed’s updated economic projections, might keep “stagflation” in the headlines. Sunday’s news that the U.S. had struck Iran’s nuclear facilities set the stage for a further rise in oil prices, adding short-term inflationary pressures and weighing on investor risk appetite. Markets remain wedged between escalating global risk and weakening fundamentals – with Fed policy constrained, volatility high, and few near-term catalysts to shift sentiment decisively.

Stocks That Made the News

▣ Chip equipment makers Lam Research (LRCX), KLA Corp (KLAC), and Applied Materials (AMAT) – along with chipmakers including Nvidia (NVDA), Broadcom (AVGO), and TSMC (TSM) – slumped on the report that the Commerce Department is mulling plans to make it more difficult for U.S. semiconductor equipment to be shipped to Chinese fabs.

▣ Accenture (ACN) shares tumbled by more than 9% on the week after it reported weaker-than-expected bookings for its fiscal third quarter. Although the professional services giant beat on sales and profits, which were boosted by demand related to AI services, the earnings call reflected hesitancy regarding the near-term outlook due to the uncertain global economic backdrop.

▣ Kroger (KR) shares surged by nearly 9% on better-than-expected profit and identical sales growth in fiscal Q1. The operator of the largest chain of traditional grocery stores in the U.S. boosted its full-year identical sales growth forecast and maintained its other guidance.

▣ Coinbase Global (COIN) was by far the best S&P 500 performer last week, clocking in over 20% gain. The shares of the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange operator soared after the Senate passed the GENIUS Act, providing a regulatory framework for companies issuing stablecoins and introducing guardrails to prevent the collapse of the digital assets.

Upcoming Earnings and Dividend Announcements

The Q1 2025 earnings season is over, but several notable earnings releases are still scheduled for the next few days. These include Carnival (CCL), FedEx (FDX), TD SYNNEX (SNX), Micron (MU), General Mills (GIS), Paychex (PAYX), and Nike (NKE).

Ex-dividend dates are coming this week for FedEx (FDX), Cincinnati Financial (CINF), Walt Disney (DIS), Seagate Tech (STX), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), Sempra Energy (SRE), Medtronic (MDT), Philip Morris (PM), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), and other dividend-paying firms.

For additional exclusive market insights and content from TipRanks Macro & Markets research analyst Yulia Vaiman, click here.