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The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro and Markets, May 17

The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro and Markets, May 17

Last week, stocks pulled back from record highs as oil, yields, and rate fears returned to the forefront. The S&P 500 (SPX) ended at 7,408.50, down 1.24% on Friday, while the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) fell 1.54% to 29,125.20. The Dow Jones (DJIA) slipped 1.07% to 49,526.17, after briefly moving back above the 50,000 mark earlier in the week.

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At the same time, the S&P 500 still managed to post its seventh straight weekly gain. That kept the broader uptrend alive, even as the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 (IWM) ended the week lower. The main pressure came from higher oil prices, rising bond yields, and fresh fear that the Federal Reserve may need to stay tough if inflation heats up again.

The U.S. 10-year yield rose to 4.597%, while oil (CM:CL) jumped 4.44% to $105.31. Gold (CM:XAUUSD) fell 3.02% to $4,540.50, while Bitcoin (BTC-USD) traded near $78,132, down 0.17%, as it gave back part of its move tied to the CLARITY Act, clearing the Senate Banking panel.

The key macro point was the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks weakened as investors grew more alert to the risk that a supply shock could push fuel costs higher. That would make the Fed’s job much harder. Traders are now pricing in a 38% chance of a rate hike before 2027, up from 20% one week ago.

AI Still Leads, but the Rally Gets More Narrow

AI remained the main force behind the market, even as the tone became more mixed. Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) climbed earlier in the week and helped push the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh records. Cisco Systems (CSCO) also rallied after a strong print tied to AI orders, which gave investors more proof that AI demand is still flowing into real sales.

In another major development, Cerebras Systems (CBRS) also stood out after its Nasdaq debut. The AI chip maker surged after raising $5.55 billion in the year’s largest IPO so far. The firm is trying to position itself as a rival to Nvidia in AI inference, with early interest from partners such as Amazon (AMZN).

Meanwhile, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) drew fresh attention after Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman disclosed a new stake. Ackman said Microsoft’s value looked compelling after a pullback and cited his trust in Azure and Copilot. He compared the setup to past buys in Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon, and Meta Platforms (META).

Elsewhere, investors watched the U.S.-China summit in Beijing, where leaders and top executives met to talk trade, tech curbs, and market access.

The summit drew a long list of CEOs, including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Micron Technology’s (MU) Sanjay Mehrotra, Qualcomm (QCOM) CEO Cristiano Amon, Boeing (BA) CEO Kelly Ortberg, Tesla (TSLA) CEO Elon Musk, and Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook. Visa (V) rose after Trump said he urged China to grant the payment firm more access to its market.

Big Stock Moves and Deal Drama

Several single stock moves also helped shape the week. Figma (FIG) jumped 13.19% after strong first-quarter sales and a higher full-year guide. Papa John’s International (PZZA) surged 6.20% on a report that its largest franchisee and Irth Capital are working on a take-private offer. Magnum Ice Cream Company (MICC) climbed 11.05% after Reuters reported that Blackstone and other private equity firms are exploring bids.

In deal news, eBay (EBAY) rejected an unsolicited $56 billion offer from GameStop (GME). eBay called the bid “neither credible nor attractive,” citing funding risk and strategic concerns. GameStop was said to be weighing whether to take the proposal straight to shareholders.

In AI governance, the Musk v. Altman trial kept OpenAI in focus. The case put fresh light on OpenAI’s nonprofit roots, safety culture, and shift toward a more commercial model. Tesla was also referenced as the court looked at past talks around control and AI growth.

Apple also faced fresh questions over its AI path. OpenAI is said to be weighing legal options over how Apple added ChatGPT into Siri, amid claims that the setup did not drive the expected subscription gains. For Apple, that adds one more issue to a year in which investors are already watching its AI plan closely.

The Week Ahead

Looking ahead, oil may be the most important macro swing factor. If risks near the Strait of Hormuz grow, crude could stay high and feed fresh inflation fears. That would keep pressure on bond yields and may force investors to rethink the path for Fed policy.

At the same time, AI will remain the market’s core theme. Nvidia, Cisco, Microsoft, and the broader chip group will need to keep proving that AI demand is still strong enough to support high stock prices. Cerebras may also stay in focus as investors test how much room there is for new AI chip names outside Nvidia.

In addition, investors will watch whether the rally can broaden. The S&P 500 has now logged seven straight weekly gains, but the weakness in small caps and the Nasdaq 100 shows that confidence is not spread across the whole market. If more sectors join in, the rally may look healthier. If not, the market may depend too much on a small group of large tech names.

Finally, the Fed will remain a key risk. Sticky prices, higher oil, and a 10-year yield near 4.6% could keep rate cut hopes in check.

Upcoming Earnings and Ex-Dividend Announcements

The week of May 18 brings a heavy earnings slate, with AI, retail, software, banks, gaming, and global consumer names in focus. Nvidia Corporation will be the main event, while Walmart Inc. (WMT), Deere & Company (DE), and PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) will also give investors fresh reads on demand, margins, and the health of the consumer. At the same time, several large firms will trade ex-dividend, giving income buyers a broad list of tech, energy, industrial, and bank names to track.

Earnings Preview

On Monday, May 18, the earnings list is light. CLP Holdings Limited (CLPHY) is the key large-cap name on the schedule, with a market value of $24.72 billion. Since forecast data is limited, investors may use the day more as a setup for the much busier reports later in the week.

On Tuesday, May 19, Home Depot Inc. (HD) will take the spotlight and is set to report $3.41 per share on revenue of about $41.60 billion. Tencent Holdings Limited (TCEHY) is expected to report $1.06 per share on revenue near $29.10 billion. Keysight Technologies Inc. (KEYS) is expected to post $2.32 per share on revenue of nearly $1.71 billion, giving investors a read on test-and-tech demand. Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT) is expected to report $1.09 per share on revenue of about $4.24 billion, while KE Holdings Inc. (BEKE) is set to post $0.14 per share on revenue near $2.75 billion. In addition, Imperial Brands plc (IMBBY) is expected to report $1.71 per share on revenue of about $6.07 billion, and Allianz SE (ALIZY) is set to post $0.95 per share on revenue near $23.27 billion.

On Wednesday, May 20, Nvidia Corporation will be the most-watched report of the week. Wall Street is looking for $1.75 per share on revenue of about $78.82 billion, and the result may set the tone for the AI trade. Intuit Inc. is expected to post $12.57 per share on revenue of about $8.54 billion. Copart Inc. (CPRT) is set to post $0.41 per share on revenue of about $1.20 billion. In the same way, Nextpower Inc. (NXT) is expected to report $0.92 per share on revenue near $826.26 million, while EON SE (EONGY) is set to post $0.49 per share on revenue of about $35.38 billion.

On Thursday, May 21, Walmart Inc. (WMT) will be one of the main reports, with forecasts calling for $0.66 per share on revenue of about $174.81 billion. The result should give investors a clear view of U.S. consumer strength. Take Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO) will report $0.56 per share on revenue near $1.55 billion, while Deere & Company (DE) is set to post $5.70 per share on revenue of about $11.55 billion. In addition, Workday Inc. (WDAY) is expected to post $2.52 per share on revenue of about $2.52 billion, and Ross Stores Inc. (ROST) is set to report $1.72 per share on revenue near $5.61 billion.

On Friday, May 22, the earnings list turns lighter again, but it still includes two large global names. PDD Holdings Inc. is expected to report $2.44 per share on revenue of about $16.19 billion, giving investors a read on China-linked consumer demand and cross-border trade. Compagnie Financière Richemont SA (CFRUY) is set to report $0.37 per share on revenue near $6.15 billion, which may offer a fresh look at high-end demand.

Ex-Dividend Dates This Week

Several large firms across tech, energy, health care, industrials, banks, and consumer names will trade ex dividend during the week. The list includes a mix of lower-yield growth names, steady income names, and higher-yield global payers.

On Monday, May 18, Carnival Corporation (CCL) will trade ex-dividend with a $0.15 payout due in about 12 days. United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) will offer $1.64 in about 18 days, while Tencent Holdings Limited (TCEHY) will pay $0.68 next month. Southern Company (SO) will offer $0.76 in about 22 days, and Phillips 66 (PSX) will pay $1.27 in about 15 days. In addition, KLA Corporation (KLAC) will offer $2.30 in about 16 days, Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation (CTSH) will pay $0.33 in about 10 days, and JBS S.A. (JBS) will offer $1.00 next month.

On Tuesday, May 19, Chevron Corporation (CVX) will trade ex-dividend with a $1.78 payout due in about 24 days. Alcoa Corporation (AA) will offer $0.10 in about 19 days, while Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) will pay $0.80 in about 15 days. Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS) will offer $0.18 in about 15 days, and Apollo Global Management Inc. (APO) will pay $0.56 in about 12 days. In addition, BWX Technologies Inc. (BWXT) will offer $0.27 in about 19 days, Tenaris S.A. (TS) will pay $1.20 in about 3 days, and Reinsurance Group of America Inc. (RGA) will offer $0.93 in about 16 days.

On Wednesday, May 20, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (REGN) will trade ex-dividend with a $0.94 payout due in about 18 days. Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) will offer $1.00 in about 24 days, while Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) will pay $0.52 in about 24 days. Equinix Inc. (EQIX) will offer $5.16 next month, and Snap Inc. (SNA) will pay $2.44 in about 24 days. In the same way, Thomson Reuters Corporation (TRI) will offer $0.66 in about 24 days, Aramark (ARMK) will pay $0.12 in about 17 days, and Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL) will offer $0.25 in about 29 days.

On Thursday, May 21, Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) will trade ex-dividend with a $0.91 payout due in about 25 days. Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) will offer $0.53 in about 25 days, while Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) will pay $1.20 next month. Teradyne Inc. (TER) will offer $0.13 in about 26 days, and Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) will pay $0.04 in about 18 days. In addition, Cognex Corporation (CGNX) will offer $0.09 in about 18 days, LPL Financial Holdings Inc. (LPLA) will pay $0.30 in about 18 days, and Littelfuse Inc. (LFUS) will offer $0.75 in about 18 days.

On Friday, May 22, RTX Corporation (RTX) will trade ex-dividend with a $0.73 payout due in about 25 days. 3M Company (MMM) will offer $0.78 in about 26 days, while Shell plc (SHEL) will pay $0.78 next month. Microchip Technology Inc. (MCHP) will offer $0.46 in about 19 days, and Viatris Inc. (VTRS) will pay $0.12 next month. In addition, Cummins Inc. (CMI) will offer $2.00 in about 18 days, Sherwin-Williams Company (SHW) will pay $0.80 in about 19 days, Bunge Global SA (BG) will offer $0.72 in about 15 days, and CDW Corporation (CDW) will pay $0.63 in about 24 days.

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