The S&P 500 (SPX) finished 2025 with a third consecutive double-digit gain, rising 16% and bringing its three-year return to nearly 80%. This came despite the benchmark index closing the final four trading days of 2025 lower as investors took advantage of tax-loss harvesting.
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For 2026, Wall Street’s price targets for the S&P 500 range from 7,100 to 8,100. All of the estimates imply upside from its 2025 close of 6,845.
How Will the S&P 500 Perform During Trump’s Sixth Year?
2026 marks a midterm year for the presidential cycle, which has historically resulted in weak returns, according to SubuTrade. However, the picture changes when a president is in his second term.
2026 marks President Trump’s sixth year in office. During the sixth year of previous presidential cycles, the S&P 500 has traded higher 100% of the time with an average return of 20.9% and a median return of 14.6%, according to Carson Group Chief Market Strategist Ryan Detrick.
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