A top commodities analyst at Citigroup (C) is warning that gold’s rally may now be over and that the price could drop as low as $2,500 an ounce in the coming year.
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Max Layton, global commodities head at Citi Research, predicts gold will trade at $2,500 to $2,700 by the second half of 2026, down about $900 from current levels. “Our call is very much a 2026 bearish gold call,” said Layton in a television interview. “Near term, we have it averaging around $3,200 in the third quarter and $3,000 in the fourth quarter.”
Gold is currently trading at $3,360.50 per ounce and is up more than 70% over the past two years. Earlier this spring, gold’s price rose above $3,500 an ounce for the first time, hitting an all-time high in the process. Geopolitical instability and macroeconomic uncertainty have sent investors scurrying for the safety of gold.
At the same time, central banks around the world are increasing their gold holdings to record levels, further driving up the price of bullion.
Downside Risks
Layton acknowledges that people are buying gold to hedge against downside risks and are worried about slowing economic growth and global turmoil. However, the leading commodities analyst says he expects a drop in gold’s price in coming months due to weakening demand and U.S. interest rate cuts.
Any signs of strength in the U.S. economy could also lead to capital flowing out of gold and moving back into riskier assets such as equities and cryptocurrencies, notes Layton. Lastly, the analyst said that if U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic stimulus bill is approved in Congress, it will reorient investors back to American growth and away from gold.
Citigroup’s outlook stands in contrast to other Wall Street firms. Goldman Sachs (GS), for example, forecasts that the price of gold will rise to $3,700 by late 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2006 due to continued central bank buying. Bank of America (BAC) also sees gold’s price hitting $4,000 in 2026 amid ongoing geopolitical upheaval. C stock has gained 13% this year.
Is C Stock a Buy?
The stock of Citigroup has a consensus Moderate Buy rating among 14 Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on 10 Buy and four Hold recommendations issued in the last three months. The average C price target of $88.75 implies 12.34% upside from current levels.
