Wells Fargo sees Black Sea deal as negative to fertilizer sentiment

Wells Fargo analyst Richard Garchitorena sees the announcement of a number of agreements following bilateral talks between the U.S./Ukraine and U.S./Russia toward a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, including a Black Sea deal and increasing Russia’s access to agricultural export markets as a negative for fertilizer sentiment. Wells notes an open Black Sea trade route will pressure grain prices, and increased Russian access to fertilizer exports would impact Nutrien (NTR), Mosaic (MOS), and CF Industries (CF). As a reminder, Nutrien and Mosaic are among the largest potash producers globally, where the firm estimates potash represents about 35% of EBITDA for Nutrien and 50% of EBITDA for Mosaic in 2025. Nitrogen may be impacted if European natural gas prices fall, with CF and Nutrien most exposed, it adds.