UnitedHealth rebate plan ‘potentially masterful move,’ says Baird

Baird analyst Michael Ha says UnitedHealth’s (UNH) plan to rebate its Affordable Care Act profit to customers this year is a “potentially masterful move.” The health exchange is immaterial for UnitedHealth, so giving back profits is immaterial in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. If UnitedHealth’s announcement leads the government to implement health exchange profit rebate measures, “this could be a masterful chess move in placing potential pressure on competitor HIX plans who heavily rely on these profits in 2026,” contends Baird. The firm sees risk for Centene (CNC), Molina Healthcare (MOH), and Oscar Health (OSCR) if UnitedHealth’s move leads the U.S. government to implement some profit rebate or claw back mechanism on health exchange plans.