RXO Inc. releases update to proprietary Curve truckload market forecast

RXO released the latest update to its proprietary Curve truckload market forecast, which shows rapidly rising truckload spot rates, excluding the impacts of fuel. In first quarter, spot rates, as measured by the Curve, rose 16.5% year-over-year, the highest reading since the third quarter of 2021. This was also an acceleration from the fourth quarter of 2025, in which rates rose by 5.2%. Through May 15, the Curve is on pace to finish the second quarter at an even higher mark than the first quarter. The surge in rates is the result of continued attrition of carrier capacity, driven by federal regulation enforcement, which has led to a supply imbalance relative to demand. “We’ve been in a year-over-year inflationary market for several quarters due to declining carrier capacity, but that hadn’t driven a substantial increase in rates until recently,” said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement at RXO. “The first quarter saw a significant spike in truckload rates, and that trend has continued into the first half of the second quarter. During CVSA Roadcheck last week, which further constrained capacity, truckload rates outperformed seasonality and hit levels we haven’t seen since 2022.”