Quantum Leap: Rivals eye full-scale quantum computer finish line before 2030

Welcome to the latest edition of “Quantum Leap” where The Fly decodes news and activity in the quantum computing space.

VISIONS OF 2030: After a series of recent technical breakthroughs, the creation of full-scale quantum computers may be possible by the end of the decade, Richard Waters of The Financial Times reported. Back in June, IBM (IBM) became the latest to claim its path was clear to a full-scale machine, believing it could build the machine by the end of the decade. This has intensified its race with Google (GOOGL), which announced last year it cleared on of its largest remaining hurdles on creating one and said it was on course to finish by the end of the decade.

QUBITS JAPAN: D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) announced that it is hosting its first-ever Qubits Japan 2025 quantum computing user conference in Tokyo on September 17. Themed “Quantum Realized,” Qubits Japan 2025 will feature presentations from D-Wave executives, customers, and thought leaders. The event comes as D-Wave’s bookings in the APAC region are up 83% over the past 12 months.

CFO TRANSITION: FormFactor (FORM) announced that Aric McKinnis, currently its VP and corporate controller, has been appointed to serve as the company’s new senior VP and CFO. He succeeds Shai Shahar, who resigned from these positions effective August 8. Shahar will remain a FormFactor employee as senior VP, executive advisor through December 31.

R&D HUB: Sealsq (LAES) unveiled the progress of its SEALQuantum.com Lab, a next-generation research and development hub focused on the convergence of quantum computing, and cybersecurity now expanding into artificial intelligence. With a total of $30M investment capacity, the Lab has already invested in quantum technology startups like ColibriTD and made the acquisition of semiconductor design service specialist IC’ALPS to develop solutions for semiconductor manufacturing and post-quantum security. 

SCALEUP X: Arqit Quantum (ARQQ) announced that it has joined the 2025 cohort of Tomorrow Street’s Scaleup X program. The collaboration provides Arqit with access to Tomorrow Street’s global network and ecosystem, creating opportunities to scale its technology across Vodafone’s (VOD) ecosystem. Andy Leaver, CEO of Arqit, commented: “We are thrilled to join Tomorrow Street’s Scaleup X Programme. In the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, there’s global recognition of the urgent need to adopt quantum-safe encryption solutions. The ability to engage with Tomorrow Street’s ecosystem provides a major opportunity to accelerate commercial deployments and deliver next-generation cyber security to customers across telecoms, critical infrastructure and enterprise sectors.”

NEW CHAIR: IonQ‘s (IONQ) board of directors has appointed CEO Niccolo de Masi to the additional position of chairman of the board, effective immediately. As a result, Peter Chapman has stepped down as executive chairman and as a member of the board.

EARNINGS RECAP: Shares of Rigetti Computing (RGTI) dipped 3% after the company’s Q2 results fell shy of expectations. Net loss in the quarter included $22.8M of non-cash losses for the fair value change in the derivative warrant and earn-out liabilities. “It’s our view that superconducting qubits are the leading modality for quantum computers due to their ability to scale, and their ability to achieve gate speeds more than 1,000 times faster than other modalities like ion traps and pure atoms. Rigetti’s superconducting qubits leverage technologies, like chiplets, that have been maturing in the semiconductor industry for decades, enabling Rigetti to use well-established methods to scale to higher performance and qubit counts,” CEO Subodh Kulkarni commented.

D-Wave reported mixed Q2 results, beating revenue expectations, but missing the EPS mark compared with analyst consensus. Bookings for the second quarter were $1.3M. “Our second quarter results show consistently strong performance across a multitude of technical and business metrics,” said Alan Baratz, CEO of D-Wave. “During the quarter, we brought to market our sixth-generation quantum computer, signed a memorandum of understanding related to the acquisition of an on-premises system in South Korea, completed physical assembly of the previously announced system at Davidson Technologies, introduced a collection of developer tools to advance quantum AI and machine learning innovation, and ended the quarter with a record $819 million in cash. We’re confident in our ability to continue delivering long-term value for our customers, partners and shareholders.” Piper Sandler raised the firm’s price target on D-Wave Quantum to $22 from $13 and maintained an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company reported June earnings in which revenue was slightly above expectations into the print. The company is currently benefiting from the availability of its Advantage2 system and general quantum computing traction which came online in the June quarter, the firm told investors in a research note.

Similarly, IonQ also experienced a mixed second quarter. Cash, cash equivalents, and investments were $656.8M as of June 30 and $1.6B pro-forma as of July 9. The balance increased due to the $1B equity financing. CEO Niccolo de Masi said, “I am pleased to report that we beat the top end of guidance for Q2 revenue by 15%, and strengthened our balance sheet via the largest equity investment from a single institution in the quantum industry. We also made very tangible progress towards delivering our #AQ64 application performance benchmark, with strong indications that it will be achieved in the near term.”

ADDITIONAL ANALYST COMMENTARY: DA Davidson downgraded IonQ to Neutral from Buy with an unchanged price target of $35. IonQ continues to invest heavily for what the firm believes will be “the next big technological paradigm of this generation,” but risks associated with the business have notably increased given limited clarity relating to the roadmap and near-to-medium term profitability, said the analyst, who is moving to the sidelines based on “various moving pieces and limited visibility.”