Odds On: Want to bet on the upcoming snowstorm? Here’s the latest

“Odds On” is The Fly’s weekly series diving into the most interesting bets on events trading platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood. Subscribers, add $EBET to your Fly portfolios for alerts on news about events trading.

BACKGROUND: A large winter storm is expected to impact a wide swath of the United States this weekend, stretching from the central Plains into the Midwest and Northeast, as a strong low-pressure system taps into Arctic air already in place across much of the country. Forecasters say the storm has the potential to bring heavy snow, ice and bitter cold, creating widespread travel disruptions and hazardous conditions. The combination of deep cold and ample moisture has raised confidence that snow will accumulate efficiently. For New York City specifically, meteorologists are increasingly confident that the storm will deliver meaningful snowfall, though final totals will depend on the exact track of the system and whether any mixing with sleet occurs. Current forecasts generally point to snow beginning late Saturday night or early Sunday, intensifying through Sunday afternoon and evening before tapering off sometime late Sunday night or Monday. With temperatures expected to remain well below freezing throughout the event, snow is likely to stick quickly to roads and sidewalks. Accumulation estimates for the city currently cluster in a range of roughly six inches to around a foot, with some scenarios producing locally higher totals if heavier snow bands set up over the metro area. A slight shift in the storm’s path closer to the coast would favor higher totals, while a more inland track could introduce some mixing that would limit accumulation. Even on the lower end of projections, forecasters say the snow would be disruptive given the cold conditions and timing.

THE BET: Kalshi offers “Snow in New York City from Jan 24–26?” with a total volume of $134,918. The current forecast is 12.3 inches.

Traders on Kalshi are pricing in a 99% chance of above two inches. The “Yes” contract has no offers, while the “No” contract stood at 1c.

There is currently a 92% probability of above four inches, according to Kalshi. The “Yes” was last trading at 96c, while the “No” contract stood at 8c.

Market participants on Kalshi are pricing in an 87% chance of above six inches. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 91c, while the “No” contract stood at 11c.

Above eight inches is currently at 80% chance, Kalshi notes. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 81c, while the “No” contract stood at 23c.

Kalshi predictors see a 67% chance above 10 inches. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 67c, while the “No” contract stood at 36c.

Traders on Kalshi are pricing in a 52% chance of above 12 inches. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 52c, while the “No” contract stood at 49c.

There is currently a 30% probability of above 15 inches, according to Kalshi. The “Yes” was last trading at 33c, while the “No” contract stood at 76c.

Market participants on Kalshi are pricing in a 12% chance of above 18 inches. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 14c, while the “No” contract stood at 87c.

Above 20 inches is currently at 11% chance, Kalshi notes. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 11c, while the “No” contract stood at 91c.

Kalshi predictors see a 5% chance above 24 inches. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 5c, while the “No” contract stood at 96c.

Note that all figures are as of 3:00 PM Eastern Time and subject to change.

THE RULES: The underlying for this contract is the total snowfall in New York City during Jan 24 through Jan 26 as measured and reported by the National Weather Service. Revisions to the underlying made after expiration will not be accounted for in determining the expiration value. The source agency is the National Weather Service.