Odds On: Want to bet on next Federal Reserve Chair? Here’s the latest

“Odds On” is The Fly’s weekly series diving into the most interesting bets on events trading platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood. Subscribers, add $EBET to your Fly portfolios for alerts on news about events trading.

BACKGROUND: President Donald Trump has signaled that he has chosen a successor to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose current term ends in May, and is expected to announce that choice early in 2026, though he has not publicly named the nominee yet. Trump has publicly stated that he “knows who I’m going to pick,” but is keeping the name under wraps until the formal announcement. Powell, whom Trump originally appointed as Fed chair in 2017 and who was re-appointed under the prior administration, has faced repeated criticism from the president for being too slow in cutting interest rates and for what Trump sees as a cautious approach to monetary easing. Trump’s remarks have included threats to remove Powell and even accusations of “gross incompetence,” though legal scholars point out that a sitting Fed chair cannot be removed at will without cause under current law. Trump’s pursuit of a new Fed leader reflects his desire to have someone at the central bank who aligns more closely with his policy priorities, especially a more accommodative stance on interest rates. Markets and analysts have zeroed in on a handful of potential candidates who fit this profile. The following are the three with a chance over 3%.

THE BET: Polymarket offers “Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?” with a total volume of $111.3M.

Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 42% chance of Trump picking Kevin Hassett with a volume of $7.05M. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 42c, while the “No” contract stood at 59c.

Market participants on Polymarket are pricing in a 35% chance of Trump picking Kevin Warsh with a volume of $3.26M. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 35c, while the “No” contract stood at 66c.

Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 13% chance of Trump picking Christopher Waller with a volume of $2.83M. The “Yes” side last traded at 13.2c, and the “No” contract is sitting at 86.9c.

THE RULES: This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.