Odds On: Here’s the latest to bet on when Claude Mythos will be released

“Odds On” is The Fly’s weekly series diving into the most interesting bets on events trading platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood. Subscribers, add $EBET to your Fly portfolios for alerts on news about events trading.

Claim 55% Off TipRanks

BACKGROUND: Claude Mythos, a next-generation AI model from Anthropic, has reportedly taken a major leap in capability around advanced reasoning, coding and cybersecurity. It has been described as significantly more autonomous than prior models, with the ability to identify complex software vulnerabilities and, in controlled testing environments, generate working exploit paths. The new model is a shift toward more agent-like behavior. It can carry out multi-step technical tasks with limited supervision, especially in domains like system analysis and security research. In internal or limited-access settings, models are being evaluated for how effectively they can uncover long-standing flaws in widely used software, which can potentially strengthen infrastructure, but also accelerate cyber risk if misused. The model appears to be in a restricted or preview phase. Access has been limited to a small group of partners, including enterprise and institutional users, as Anthropic evaluates safety risks and containment strategies.

THE BET: Polymarket offers “Claude Mythos released by…?” with a total volume of $188,852

Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 3% chance of Claude Mythos being released by April 30. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 3.1c, while the “No” contract stood at 97.4c.

There is currently an 18% chance of Claude Mythos being released by June 30, according to Polymarket. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 18c, while the “No” contract stood at 83c.

THE RULES: A data leak on March 26, exposed Anthropic’s unreleased “Claude Mythos” model, described as their most capable yet with significant advances in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity, which the company has confirmed is now in early access testing. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthropic releases “Claude Mythos” or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak described above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying model must be named “Claude Mythos” or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting. Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market’s resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the leak. For this market to resolve to “Yes,” the qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.