Odds On: Egg prices most likely to fall in $2.25-$2.50 range in April

“Odds On” is The Fly’s weekly series diving into the most interesting bets on events trading platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood. Subscribers, add $EBET to your Fly portfolios for alerts on news about events trading.

Claim 55% Off TipRanks

BACKGROUND: Historically, egg prices are a proxy for food inflation volatility, especially within the broader Consumer Price Index. Eggs are purchased frequently, priced transparently and respond quickly to changes in supply, so they tend to be looked at as a signal. Eggs are seemingly caught in a complex mix of supply shocks, policy and market dynamics. In 2024-2025, a severe outbreak of avian flu wiped out tens of millions of egg-laying chickens across the U.S., creating a massive supply shock. That drove prices to record highs of over $6 per dozen at the peak in early 2025. Egg prices are currently down significantly from the peak, but still above long-term historical norms. Costs remain elevated and the market is more sensitive to shocks than it used to be. As of April 10, the last update containing data for March, egg prices sat at $2.348.

THE BET: Polymarket offers “Price of Dozen Eggs in April?” with a total volume of $24,852. The four choices at over 3% are $1.75-$2.00, $2.00-$2.25, $2.25-$2.50 and $2.50-$2.75.

Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 3% chance of the price of a dozen eggs being in the $1.75-$2.00 range for the month of April. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 3c, while the “No” contract stood at 97.7c.

There is currently a 31% chance of the price of eggs falling in the $2.00-$2.25 range in April, according to Polymarket. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 32c, while the “No” contract stood at 70c.

Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 61% chance of the price of a dozen eggs being in the $2.25-$2.50 range for April. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 62c, while the “No” contract stood at 41c.

There is an 8% chance of the price of eggs falling in the $2.50-$2.75 range in April. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 9c, while the “No” contract stood at 94c.

THE RULES: This market will resolve to the bracket within which the price for “Eggs, Grade A, Large (Cost per Dozen) in U.S. City Average” lies when the April data point is published by the St. Louis Fed. The St. Louis Fed bases its numbers for egg prices on the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s CPI release. The April release is presently scheduled for May 12. Resolution of this market will take place upon the update of the St. Louis Fed’s chart. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month’s data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The resolution source for this market measures prices to the third decimal place. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.