Odds On: 21% chance seen of GameStop pulling off eBay purchase

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BACKGROUND: GameStop’s (GME) proposed acquisition of eBay (EBAY) was announced on May 3. GameStop, whose market value is far smaller than eBay’s, offered about $55.5B in a half-cash, half-stock deal valuing eBay at $125 per share. The proposal was unsolicited and non-binding. The effort is being driven by GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen. Cohen argues that combining GameStop’s retail footprint with eBay’s online marketplace could create a stronger e-commerce and collectibles platform capable of competing more directly with Amazon (AMZN). He specifically pointed to GameStop’s stores as potential authentication, fulfillment, and live-commerce hubs for trading cards, gaming hardware, and other collectibles. As of now, eBay has acknowledged receiving the proposal but has not agreed to a deal. Cohen has suggested he could pursue a proxy fight and appeal directly to shareholders if eBay’s board rejects the offer outright.

THE BET: Kalshi offers “Will GameStop acquire eBay this year?” with a total volume of $331,119. Traders on Kalshi are pricing in a 21% chance of GameStop acquiring eBay this year. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 22c, while the “No” contract stood at 79c.

Meanwhile, Polymarket has the market “Will GameStop acquire eBay?” with a total volume of $261,274. There is currently a 15% chance of GameStop acquiring eBay. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 15c, while the “No” contract stood at 86c.

THE RULES: This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is officially announced that eBay will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with GameStop, by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, according to Polymarket. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Mergers or acquisitions involving eBay or its parent company, eBay Inc., and GameStop or its parent company, will qualify. An announcement by eBay or GameStop within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as GameStop acquires a controlling interest in eBay. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions. Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from eBay and GameStop; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.